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COVID-19 deaths could swing the election to Democrats, study says

Donald Trump has called himself a “wartime president” for leading the fight against COVID-19. He has called Americans “warriors” for showing up at their jobs, shopping in stores and generally getting the economy back on track despite knowing that these activities increase the risk of a coronavirus infection.

The metaphor is apt, in that our war on COVID-19 has resulted in substantial casualties — more than 229,000 dead and counting. That’s more double the 90,220 deaths Americans suffered throughout the Vietnam War.

For the record:

12:01 a.m. Oct. 31, 2020An earlier version of this story said Donald Trump won New Hampshire in the 2016 presidential election. He lost the state in a close race.

During the Vietnam years, there was a clear correlation between the number of combat deaths suffered by a county and the degree to which residents backed the conflict — when deaths went up, support for the president’s war policies fell, researchers have found.

Likewise, voters in areas that suffered more casualties during the Iraq War were less likely to vote for Republican congressional candidates in the 2006 midterm elections, while voters in areas that took more casualties in Afghanistan were more likely to support Trump for president in 2016 instead of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Now political scientists are seeing the pattern again — except this time the war is happening on U.S. soil and the foe is COVID-19.

“Increasing fatalities from the disease leads to losses for Republicans,” a team from George Washington University and UCLA reported Friday in the journal Science Advances.

The researchers used data collected by the New York Times to tally COVID-19 deaths in every state up through May 31. They also looked at responses gathered by the Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape Project, a public opinion survey that reaches about 6,400 people each week.

They found that people in the states with high COVID-19 fatalities were 3% less likely to support Trump’s reelection than were people in states where the coronavirus had made little impact. They were also nearly 13% less likely to favor GOP candidates for Senate seats and 5% less likely to back GOP candidates for the House of Representatives.

That was just their starting point. To look more carefully at the relationship between deaths and political preferences, the political scientists compared COVID-19 deaths in the previous 30 days with changes in support for Republican candidates in a state or even county. This allowed them to account for the influence of factors like voters’ race, ethnicity, gender, education and who they voted for in the 2016 presidential election. It also helped them see whether COVID-19 deaths were actually causing voters to turn away from the party controlling America’s response to the pandemic.

The results were clear.

“Overall, areas with higher COVID-19 fatalities are significantly less likely to support President Trump and other Republican candidates,” they reported. This pattern was seen “at every level of geography and for every office.”

The degree of lost support was small, but it may be enough to swing an election in a close race, the researchers wrote.

For instance, if COVID-19 deaths in a county had doubled over the previous 30 days, voters in that county became 0.14% less likely to support Trump’s reelection, 0.28% less likely to support Republican Senate candidates and 0.22% less likely to support Republicans running for seats in the House.

Additionally, if COVID-19 deaths in a state doubled over the previous 30 days, people in that state became 0.37% less likely to say they’d vote for Trump, 0.79% less likely to say they’d vote for a GOP Senate candidate and 0.58% less likely to say they’d vote for a Republican House candidate.

The political scientists noted that in 2016, Trump carried Michigan by a margin of just 0.2%, and he lost New Hampshire by a mere 0.4%. In Florida, Republican Rick Scott unseated Democrat Bill Nelson in a 2018 Senate race with an advantage of less than 0.2%.

Indeed, COVID-19 casualties could be even more influential than the health of the economy, the study authors wrote.

“Just as the public penalizes the president for casualties during wars, the public is penalizing the president and other members of his party for local fatalities during the pandemic,” they concluded. “This could swing the presidential election and the U.S. Senate toward Democrats, with particularly high effects in swing states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona, and Florida.”

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New Pew study shows Trump losing favor with Latinos

President Trump has united the Latino vote … in its disdain for the policies of his second term.

A new study from the Pew Research Center found that a majority of U.S. Latino adults disapprove of the job Trump has done since returning to the White House earlier this year.

Ongoing Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids throughout the country and continued economic turmoil have led many Latinos to grow upset with the politician — whose 2024 campaign centered on carrying out the “largest deportation operation in American history” and fixing the nation’s fledgling economy.

Pew’s findings revealed that 70% of Latinos disapprove of the way Trump is handling his job as president. When it came to immigration, 65% disapproved of the current administration’s approach to the issue. Regarding the economy, 61% said Trump’s policies have made economic conditions worse.

However, party affiliation still played a significant role in how Latinos graded Trump’s performance. Overall, 81% of 2024 Latino Trump voters approved of his job so far — an impressive level of support, though it has notably dipped from 93% since the onset of his second term.

Among Latinos who voted for Kamala Harris, Trump had a 4% approval rating in February, which has since plummeted to 0%. His approval rating with 2024 Latino nonvoters moved from 42% down to 27%. As a whole, the president’s approval rating among all Latino groups has slumped from 42% at the beginning of the year to 27% this fall.

In the Pew study, Latino voters also expressed pessimism about their future in the U.S. Of those surveyed, 68% said the situation for U.S. Latinos is worse today than it was a year ago, 9% responded that it was better and 22% felt it was about the same. Harris voters overwhelming felt the situation is worsening for Latinos at 89%; 66% of nonvoters agreed with that assessment; and 31% of Trump voters felt Latinos were worse off now than last year.

A plurality of voters who went red in 2024 — 40% — felt the situation for Latinos in the U.S. was about the same year over year. Additionally, 28% of that voting bloc believed U.S. Latinos are better off now compared with 2024.

This data set lines up with a recent Axios/Ipsos poll conducted in partnership with Noticias Telemundo.

Of the more than 1,100 people surveyed, 65% said that it’s a “bad time” to be Latino or Hispanic in the U.S.; when the poll was conducted in March 2024, that figure stood at 40%. When broken down by party, 84% of Democrats said it was a bad time, compared with 68% of independents and 32% of Republicans.

At 78%, a majority of those polled by Pew felt that Trump’s policies have been more harmful than helpful to the Latino community. Harris voters were once again united against Trump with 97% agreeing that his policies have negatively affected their community. Nonvoters were in agreement with 78% feeling the Republican president’s policies have had adverse effects on Latinos.

Trump voters were split on the issue with 41% saying Trump’s policies have been helpful to Latinos, 34% believing they’ve been harmful and 22% responding that they’ve had no effect.

These findings seemingly muddle the narrative that Latinos nationwide have made a rightward turn politically in recent years.

In the 2024 presidential election, Trump garnered 48% of the Latino vote compared with Harris’ 51% share and significantly jumped past the 36% clip that he got in the 2020 presidential election. Initial 2024 exit polls actually underestimated Latinos’ Trump support, with the Republican candidate tracking at 46% of the Latino vote on election day.

Additionally, 47% of naturalized citizens of all ethnic backgrounds voted for Trump in 2024, compared with 38% in 2020. In that same voting bloc 51% voted for Harris in 2024, a notable drop from the 59% who voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

Latino naturalized citizens recorded a 12% bump in voting for Trump, jumping from 39% in 2020 to 51% in 2024.

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Stahl House for sale for first time since case study house was built

For decades, the Stahl House in the Hollywood Hills has been a rarity — a globally known icon of Midcentury Modernism and Los Angeles glamour, still in the hands of the family who commissioned it in 1960. But now it’s for sale.

The asking price is $25 million, which might seem a startling figure for a two-bedroom, 2,300-square-foot home on a snug lot. But that figure might not surprise lovers of modernist architecture who know it as Case Study House #22.

It was designed for the Stahl family by architect Pierre Koenig, captured on black-and-white film by photographer Julius Shulman and has been admired worldwide ever since.

The Architect’s Newspaper called it “one of the world’s most famous buildings.” Los Angeles magazine called Shulman’s image “perhaps the most famous picture ever taken of Los Angeles.”

“There are no comps for the Stahl house. It’s incomparable,” said William Baker, architecture director for the real estate firm the Agency Beverly Hills. The home was included in the company’s fall catalog Nov. 12.

By Friday afternoon, Baker said, he had received hundreds of inquiring calls. In considering offers, Baker said, the family is open to individuals or institutions — “someone who’s going to understand it, honor the house and the story about it.”

The Stahls purchased the lot in 1954 for $13,500 and enlisted Koenig to design the house after other architects were daunted by the slope of the lot. Koenig’s solution was a cantilevered L-shaped structure with walls of steel and glass, a pool and a free-standing stone-faced fireplace between the living and dining areas.

The second bedroom can only be accessed through the primary bedroom — “an efficient use of space” for a family of five, Baker said. The Stahl family has said the home cost $37,500 to build.

Shortly after the home’s completion, photographer Julius Shulman made a black-and-white photograph that became emblematic of the era. It shows the home at night, with two young women sitting inside in a cantilevered corner, its floor-to-ceiling windows revealing the lights of the L.A. Basin glittering in the background.

To bring up the lights, Shulman later told Los Angeles magazine, he used a seven-minute exposure. The resulting image, along with others Shulman made of the house, is now owned by the Getty Research Institute.

In years since, the home has served as a filming location for many TV and film productions, including the 1968 pilot episode of “Columbo” and the movies “Galaxy Quest” (1999) and “Nurse Betty” (2000).

“This home has been the center of our lives for decades, but as we’ve gotten older, it has become increasingly challenging to care for it with the attention and energy it so richly deserves,” the Stahl family announced on its website. Bruce and Shari Stahl, the surviving children of original owners Buck and Carlotta Stahl, added, “[O]ur tour program will continue unchanged for the time being, and we will provide ample notice before any adjustments are made.”

For the last 17 years, the house has been open for tours, most recently on Wednesdays, Fridays and Saturdays, starting at $60 per adult during the day, $90 in the evening, with advance booking required and tight limits on photography. However, the Stahl website indicates all tours are sold out through the end of February.

The real estate listing notes that the home is “a protected landmark and the only Case Study House with original family ownership.”

In nominating it for the National Register of Historic Places in 2009, Amanda Stewart of the Los Angeles Conservancy called it “perhaps the most iconic house constructed in the Case Study House Program.” That program, sponsored by John Entenza’s Arts & Architecture magazine from 1945 to 1966, yielded 25 completed homes, today considered top exemplars of Midcentury home design.

“There’s not a lot of these Case Study houses left. I think there are 19 now,” Baker said. (Baker also said he had recently handled the sale of Case Study House #10 in Pasadena to a buyer who lost a home in January’s Pacific Palisades fire.)

The Stahl home stands on Woods Drive just north of West Hollywood’s city limit, about a quarter of a mile from Chateau Marmont.

Many architecturally important Southern California Modern homes have landed in the hands of institutions, including Frank Lloyd Wright’s Hollyhock House (1921), owned by the city of Los Angeles; the Schindler House (1922), owned by the Friends of the Schindler House and operated by the MAK Center for Art and Architecture; and the Eames House (1949), owned by the nonprofit Eames Foundation. The Sheats-Goldstein Residence, designed by John Lautner in 1961-63 and renovated by Lautner in the 1990s, has been promised by owner James Goldstein to the L.A. County Museum of Art.

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Chilean city has fastest fixed broadband Internet in world, study says

Supporters of Chilean presidential candidate Jose Antonio Kast look at their phones while awaiting election results in Santiago on November 16, aided by a fast Internet. Photo by Ailen Diaz/EPA

Nov. 24 (UPI) — The Chilean city of Valparaíso has the fastest fixed broadband Internet in the world, according to the Speedtest Global Index, which ranks average connection speeds based on user tests.

The port city leads the latest ranking with an average download speed of 398.21 megabits per second, surpassing major cities such as Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, which placed second with 376 Mbps and Lyon, France, which ranked third.

In the United States, Los Angeles is the first city to appear in the ranking, in 11th place, followed by New York in 12th.

Valparaíso ranked ahead of Chile’s capital, Santiago, because it sits in a strategic location for technology companies that use the city as a hub for developing fiber-optic infrastructure for Chile, South America and connections to Oceania.

“Valparaíso is the landing point for submarine cables such as Google’s Curie, América Móvil’s Mistral and SAC, which add capacity and redundancy to the connectivity ecosystem, while Google’s Humboldt transpacific cable with the Chilean government is set to land in Valparaíso in 2027,” Danilo Bórquez, who holds a doctorate in complex systems engineering and is a professor at the Adolfo Ibáñez University’s engineering school, told UPI.

He added that residents of Valparaíso have faster and more stable Wi-Fi.

“With more than 300 Mbps you can have several users online at the same time. Video calls run smoothly and game or photo downloads and backups are much faster. You can also hold classes or use educational platforms without interruptions, with materials downloading in seconds or minutes,” Bórquez said.

At the national level, fiber-optic adoption is high. “In Chile, it accounts for about 70% of fixed connections, which drives the typical speeds measured by Speedtest. There are companies that can migrate or extend fiber to another 4.3 million households in Chile, which increases the base of users with high-speed plans.”

Marco Aravena, director of Modernization and Digital Transformation and a computer engineering professor at the University of Valparaíso, told UPI that service providers come to the city to expand fiber-optic Internet access.

“In Valparaíso you have Las Torpederas beach, where one of the submarine cables that brings fiber-optic connections from other parts of the world comes ashore. We are one of the technology hubs through which internet arrives in Chile. It’s not that users connect directly to that fiber, but they have more direct access to it,” he said.

Experts say these factors make Valparaíso attractive for people who want to work in hybrid or remote roles.

“Valparaíso is becoming a hub that allows people to come live and work here because of its strong connectivity. It also attracts students because there are many universities in the city,” Aravena said.

However, the city has significant investment in technology and networks but little investment in infrastructure or economic development.

According to the latest 2024 Urban Quality of Life Index from the Catholic University, Valparaíso scored medium-high in connectivity and mobility, but low in housing and surroundings and medium-low in health and the environment.

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