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MIAMI — A statement issued by Cuban-American powerbroker Jorge Mas Canosa after a meeting earlier this week with Democrat Bill Clinton has caused a furor among Republicans here while fueling speculation that defectors from what was once considered the most solid of Republican voting blocs could help give Florida’s 25 electoral votes to the Democrats for the first time since 1976.

Mas, chairman of the Cuban American National Foundation, went to Tampa on Tuesday to thank Clinton for his support of the anti-Castro Cuban Democracy Act. In a statement signed by Mas and three other CANF directors, Mas went on to say: “Any fears that the Cuban-American community may have had about a Clinton Administration with regard to Castro’s Cuba have dissipated today.”

Many interpreted Mas’ remarks as all but blessing Cuban-Americans who wanted to vote for Clinton. Republican stalwarts expressed surprise and dismay over what some characterized as a betrayal.

“I have a serious problem with (the statement),” said Alberto Cardenas, co-chairman of the Bush-Quayle campaign in Dade County and a co-founder of CANF. “Advising the Cuban-American voter that Clinton is an acceptable choice is without merit, and at best premature, and doesn’t speak well for 12 years of Republican support. I told that to Mr. Mas.”

Democrats downplayed Mas’ influence, insisting a slight shift was under way long before the meeting.

“Cuban-American voters could make the difference, could be that swing vote,” said Grace Prieto, a coordinator with the Clinton-Gore campaign in Dade County. “Dukakis got about 7% of the Cuban-American vote in 1988. I am sure that this time the Democrats will get 25% to 30%.”

Statewide, the race between the Arkansas governor and President Bush is rated pretty much a tossup, and Cuban-American voters make up only 4% of the Florida total.

Still, according to a poll released Tuesday by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, what was once an overwhelming majority for Bush among Cuban-Americans has begun to erode, from 73% to 55%. Meanwhile, Clinton’s support among the same group rose from 19% to 36%.

Those poll results were released about the same time that Mas was meeting privately with Clinton in Tampa, and do not reflect the subsequent political fallout from his statement.

Mas, along with several CANF directors, met with Clinton after the Democratic candidate addressed 18,000 people at a rally. Also present at the meeting were Rep. Dante B. Fascell (D-Fla.) and Maria Arias, Clinton’s Cuban-born sister-in-law.

Mas’ overture to Clinton was widely seen as a political hedge by an ambitious man who has made no secret of his intention to be a leading player–perhaps even president–in a post-Castro Cuba.

But his conciliatory statement caused such an uproar among so many Cubans here that Mas went on a Spanish-language radio station Thursday to affirm his support for Bush. “My affiliation is Republican, my vote is for President Bush, but my work for Cuba is much more important than my partisan preferences,” he said during an interview over radio station WQBA.

Mas’ political maneuvering “is the topic in the Cuban community,” said Los Angeles-based political pollster Sergio Bendixen, working here for the Univision television network. “Many people feel it was treason for (Mas) to suggest it might to OK to vote for Democrats, perceived for many years as next to Communists. Others accept that Mas’ one objective is the liberty of Cuba, and see it as a genius move.”

Prieto said she has been busy assuring Cuban-American Democrats that the controversial Mas “will not control the Clinton Administration.” Mas’ goal, added Prieto, “is to persist as leader if Bill Clinton wins, and keep power and control.”

Arias, a Miami attorney married to Hugh Rodham, Hillary Clinton’s brother, said: “We welcome any statements from Mas or anyone else who says they believe in Bill Clinton. My reading is that he does have impact. I don’t think (his statement) can hurt.”

Tomas Garcia Fuste, news director of WQBA, said he believes that Bush’s son, Jeb, a Miami businessman, is the difference. “He is a good friend here. Cuban-Americans are Republicans, no matter what happens.”

In its report on the controversy, the Miami Herald mentioned rumors that before traveling to Tampa to meet with Clinton, Mas was confronted at his home by an angry Jeb Bush, who demanded that he not go. In the same account, Jeb Bush denied that any confrontation took place.

Kateryna Golizdra has been dealing with uncertainty about her legal status in the United States for six months. She hopes to endure another six months as she waits for the Trump administration to make decisions regarding a humanitarian program that allowed around 260,000 Ukrainians, displaced by the war, to live and work in the U. S. When her legal status expired in May, Golizdra became at risk of deportation, lost her job as a manager at the Ritz-Carlton that paid over $50,000, and lost her health insurance for a liver condition. She can no longer send financial support to her mother who lives in Germany.

As of March 31, nearly 200,000 Ukrainians faced similar risks due to processing delays in renewing their legal status caused by the Trump administration. The humanitarian program, which started in April 2022, was meant to offer short-term refuge to Ukrainians but is only a small part of the larger refugee crisis, with 5.9 million Ukrainian refugees globally. Golizdra is left unsure of when, or if, her legal status will be renewed, which creates a sense of ongoing anxiety about her future.

During interviews with various Ukrainian individuals affected by the temporary loss of their work permits, many shared stories of struggling financially. They reported dipping into their savings, seeking community assistance, and going into debt while they wait for updates. Some are afraid of being arrested by immigration authorities, prompting them to stay indoors or even leave the U. S. for safer locations in Canada, Europe, or South America. Returning to Ukraine is not an option for Golizdra, as her home was destroyed during the conflict.

The Trump administration halted processing applications for the humanitarian program in January, citing security concerns stemming from a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. While the program was not completely canceled, and a federal judge ordered officials to resume processing, only a tiny fraction of renewal applications have been processed since then. Additionally, a new spending package increased fees for humanitarian applications, adding to the burdens faced by these displaced individuals.

U. S. Representative Mike Quigley noted that his office has received numerous requests for help from Ukrainians in similar situations, with fears of deportation looming large for those whose applications are incomplete. Anne Smith, from the Ukraine Immigration Task Force, reported an uptick in calls from families worrying about detained relatives. This has led to chaotic interactions, with some being arrested while working or out in public.

Some Ukrainians have decided to leave the U. S. to avoid the risk of detention. Yevhenii Padafa, a software engineer, sought to renew his status but faced delays that left him without legal standing. Worrying about future complications, he tried to “self deport” using a government app that promised assistance for those voluntarily leaving the country. However, he encountered obstacles that made it difficult to relocate to a safer country. Instead, he ended up traveling to Argentina, which offers a humanitarian program, despite feeling financially strained upon arrival. He expressed the grim reality of preferring to be homeless in a foreign country rather than return to Ukraine, which is fraught with danger.

With information from Reuters

Ukraine announced it launched Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles at military targets in Russia. The attack appears to be the first use of these U.S.-made weapons into Russia under the Trump administration. It also points to the strong possibility that another batch of the prized missiles have been supplied to Ukraine, which is noteworthy in itself due to the limited U.S. stocks of the weapons, and/or that the White House has approved the type’s use once again.

“This is a significant development that underscores Ukraine’s unwavering commitment to its sovereignty,” the Ukrainian Armed Forces General Staff said of the attack. “Despite the ongoing pressure of Russian offensive actions, Ukrainians remain resilient, demonstrating determination and consistent resolve in defending their homeland.”

“The use of long-range strike capabilities, including systems such as ATACMS, will continue,” the Armed Forces General Staff added.

Ukrainian officials provided no details about the ATACMS targets or how many were launched. Newer variants of these missiles can reach to nearly 200 miles, with first generation models having just over half the range.

Ukrainian and Russian mibloggers suggested that Ukraine attacked locations in Russia’s Voronezh region, among them the Pogonovo training area, located roughly 105 miles from the border. However, there is no independent verification of that.

The following video, first published by the Supernova+ Telegram channel, purports to show one of the ATACMS being shot down.

Cluster warheads packed with submunitions would be an ideal weapon to fire at a location where troops might be concentrated in the open. Ukraine used cluster munitions-equipped ATACMS to hit a Russian training ground in the occupied Luhansk region in May 2024 to devastating effect. That strike was also captured on video, which you can see below.

Though Kyiv claimed it will continue using ATACMS, just how many it has left is a mystery. Considering the long stretch between known uses, it likely ran dry for an extended period of time until the U.S. supplied more. The Trump administration could have also blocked the use of the weapons, especially into Russian territory, until now, although we cannot confirm this at this time.

Ukraine still has a number of U.S.-made Army High Mobility Rocket System (HIMARS) and M270 MLRS launchers that fire ATACMs. However, the last of these munitions authorized to be sent to Ukraine by former President Joe Biden arrived in the spring, The Wall Street Journal reported in August. The publication noted that “Kyiv has a small supply left, according to U.S. officials.”

Meanwhile, in March, The Associated Press reported Ukraine ran out of ATACMs. A U.S. official told the wire service at the time that “Ukraine was given fewer than 40 of those missiles overall and that Ukraine ran out of them in late January.”

We cannot confirm that number, but we do know they were not furnished by the many hundreds or anything approaching that number. The U.S. inventory is thought to be the low thousands.

Senior U.S. defense leaders, including the previous Pentagon chief, Lloyd Austin, “had made it clear that only a limited number of the ATACMs would be delivered and that the U.S. and NATO allies considered other weapons to be more valuable in the fight,” according to the AP.

As we previously reported, the first tranche of about 20 early generation, shorter-range ATACMS variants arrived in Ukraine in October 2023 and were apparently mostly used during attacks on Russian-held airfields the same month. Ukraine has used the limited number of these prized weapons it has received with major results. Longer-range variants, which were not introduced into the war until the Spring of 2024, were first used in a wave of attacks on air bases and air defense installations across the Crimean peninsula, according to the Kyiv Post.

A major reason for the limited number of ATACMS given to Ukraine is that U.S. officials have expressed concern about their own stockpiles. However, in December 2023, the U.S. Army began receiving the first tranches of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) short-range ballistic missiles. The Army, which sees PrSMs as the ATACMS successor, said in September 2023 that the advent of these weapons could reduce some of the readiness risks associated with giving Ukraine ATACMS. It is quite possible that PrSM deliveries had freed-up more ATACMS rounds for Ukraine, and, given the chill between the White House and the Kremlin, these weapons would work both as a tactical tool and a strategic message.

This is especially the case as discussions continue regarding the U.S. supplying even more advanced and longer-range weaponry to Ukraine. While Trump has seemed to sour on giving Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles, more ATACMS, which have far shorter range and do not set a new precedent, would be a likely alternative.

After meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said his American counterpart was open to lifting restrictions on Kyiv’s use of American-made long-range weapons to strike inside Russia, according to The Wall Street Journal. Trump didn’t make any commitments to do so, the newspaper reported.

A month earlier, the Journal wrote that the Pentagon had for months “been blocking Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles to strike inside Russia.”

“A high-level Defense Department approval procedure, which hasn’t been announced, has prevented Ukraine from firing ATACMS missiles against targets in Russia since late spring,” the Journal added. “On at least one occasion, Ukraine sought to use ATACMS against a target on Russian territory but was rejected.”

The last recorded case of a Ukrainian ATACMS strike inside Russia was on January 14 as part of a massive attack also using U.K.-made Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles and long-range drones. That took place in the waning days of the Joe Biden administration, which also took a circuitous route in giving Ukraine ATACMS and then allowing them to strike inside Russia. The following graphic, produced as Biden was debating allowing Ukraine to hit Russia with ATACMS, gave a sense of what kinds of targets could be reached.

The first such attack took place almost exactly a year ago. On Nov. 19, 2024, a munitions storage facility near the town of Karachev in the Bryansk region of western Russia was hit by ATACMS. The target was around 70 miles from the Ukrainian border, well within range of these missiles.

There are many questions unanswered about Ukraine’s claimed ATACMS strike today. We have reached out to the White House, Pentagon and State Department to see if we can get some answers about the last time Ukraine was given these weapons and the last time they were used in Russia. We will update this story if they give us any useful details.

While ATACMS did have major lasting battlefield effects, it never proved to be a game-changer based on the tiny quantities provided. But they are another long-range weapon that has existed in Ukraine’s arsenal that packs a punch far heavier than the long-range drones Kyiv has been using across Russia. With Ukraine’s introduction of home-made cruise missiles, this equation is changing, but still, ATACMS are survivable and hit very hard when equipped with a unitary warhead and its cluster warheads can blanket large areas with explosions and shrapnel.

If the strike occurred as stated today, it points to a shift in the Trump administration’s policy when it comes to long-range strikes with U.S. weapons into Russia and it could also indicate the ATACMS supplies are flowing once again.

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