salary cap

What we know: The Dodgers lost. Their season is no more. Their three-peat dream has been dashed. Their winter is upon us.

What we don’t know: What the future holds, in what could be a turbulent winter for the Dodgers and for all of Major League Baseball.

Here are four things we don’t know about the Dodgers, but well worth keeping an eye on:

Shohei Ohtani

Just three short months ago, we wondered whether Ohtani would win his fifth most valuable player award and his first Cy Young Award. Has the time come for the Dodgers to consider curtailing his pitching?

As the Dodgers trudged through the playoffs, we endured daily drama over where in the lineup Ohtani would bat (first, second, fourth, fifth or sixth) and what he could produce despite playing through multiple injuries.

We’ll soon get a better understanding of those injuries, and whether rest, rehabilitation and/or surgery might be recommended for each one. We’ll also get a better sense of what the future might hold for Ohtani as a two-way player, and for his potential to perform at an elite level on both sides of the ball.

Ohtani said he plans to resume pitching next year. He is 32. He just completed his 14th professional season.

Ohtani has pitched more than 132 innings once since 2016, when he was 22 and playing for the Nippon Ham Fighters.

In his three seasons with the Dodgers, this was the first that did not involve rehabilitation from elbow surgery. He started 14 games before a knee injury prevented him from pitching any more this season.

Payroll

Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal walks off the field during Game 1 of the NLDS.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

Major league owners are poised to shut down the sport this winter, in pursuit of a salary cap designed to restrain the Dodgers, since they won’t restrain themselves.

The owners’ initial proposal set a salary cap of $245 million next year. The Dodgers already have $347 million committed to 14 players next year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Under a cap, the owners have promised a transition period to account for existing commitments, and an actual negotiated cap could be higher.

Even if the players do not agree to a cap — and they insist they won’t — whatever economic system that would emerge from collective bargaining would be almost certain to make it painful for the Dodgers to spend so freely.

Whatever the case, the Dodgers could face the kind of difficult roster choices they often have papered over with money this decade. Two closers for $141 million? Good luck with that.

And would they be able to fit soon-to-be free agent Tarik Skubal into their payroll? Skubal might well sign before the lockout is expected to start in December, but there is nothing agent Scott Boras loves more than pitching a marquee free agent to a new owner. The two other Southern California teams — the Angels and San Diego Padres — both have one.

Age

Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, left, and general manager Brandon Gomes have decisions to make about their aging roster.

(Luke Hales / Getty Images)

When Andrew Friedman made his name as the general manager of the Tampa Bay Rays, he did it in large part by taking advantage of one market inefficiency within the American League East: He beat up on the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees because they were stuck with rosters crowded with aging stars on big contracts. The Rays couldn’t have done that even if Friedman had wanted to.

He didn’t want to do it too much in Los Angeles, because it compromises roster flexibility. But, after seven National League West titles and no World Series championships, ownership went all in: Mookie Betts (12 years, $365 million), Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million), Ohtani (10 years, $700 million), Yoshinobu Yamamoto (12 years, $325 million), Tyler Glasnow (five years, $137 million), Blake Snell (five years, $182 million), Will Smith (10 years, $140 million) and Kyle Tucker (four years, $240 million).

It worked: three rings in six years. Now the bill comes due.

The Dodgers fielded the oldest group of position players in the major leagues this season. Ohtani and Betts are under contract through their age-39 seasons; Smith will be 38 when his deal’s up, Yamamoto and Max Muncy 37, Snell 36, Glasnow 35.

Something to watch this winter: Freeman is 37, signed through next year. He would like to play until 40 and finish his career here. That would take a two-year extension. Would the Dodgers say no?

Ownership

Mark Walter’s insurance empire is under investigation by federal authorities — and the subject of discussions with state regulators — over allegations the businesses he controls failed to properly follow laws designed to protect investors.

Walter’s company has denied wrongdoing, and neither Walter nor his businesses have been charged with a crime. He is, however, a defendant in multiple civil lawsuits in which insurance policyholders claim he and several of his companies committed fraud and breach of contract.

Walter may need more than $20 billion to satisfy regulators by recapitalizing insurance companies. He abruptly sold the Lakers in August, in a deal that valued the team — not just Walter’s controlling interest — at $12.5 billion. He and fellow Dodgers co-owner Todd Boehly also sold a small stake in English soccer club Chelsea FC last month for about $1.27 billion, the Financial Times reported. It is uncertain how Walter would provide the rest of the money for recapitalization.

“Regarding the Los Angeles Dodgers, to be clear, the team is not being sold,” Walter’s holdings company said in a statement last month.

It is uncertain whether a resolution with insurance regulators would satisfy the Department of Justice, which reports to President Trump. In July, when the Dodgers visited the White House, Walter presented Trump with an official World Series championship ring with his name engraved on it. He also sold the Lakers to former Disney chief Bob Iger and venture capitalist Joshua Kushner, the brother of Trump’s son-in-law.

Major League Baseball is monitoring the situation and could conduct its own review after the state and federal matters are concluded.

It seems like a simple equation: $338 million produces 100.

That’s the Dodgers’ season-ending payroll and victory total. But to assume a franchise can merely buy a playoff berth is a stretch.

The New York Mets sit at home — or more likely at lavish vacation destinations, given their perch at the top of baseball’s payrolls at $345.8 million. They finished last in the National League East with a 74-88 record.

The Cleveland Guardians also sit at home, but are quite pleased about it. They earned a first-round bye and berth in the American League Division Series this weekend despite a payroll of only $74.2 million — baseball’s lowest and barely one-fifth that of the Mets.

Twelve of the 30 MLB teams qualified for the postseason, with four best-of-three Wild Card Series beginning Tuesday. Eight of the dozen have payrolls in the top 10, with the defending AL-champion Toronto Blue Jays joining the Mets as supreme underachievers given their No. 5-ranked payroll of $275.4 million.

Yet three playoff teams — the Tampa Bay Rays ($98.3 million) and Chicago White Sox ($98 million), in addition to the Guardians — rank among the six lowest payrolls, according to present-day salary calculations from the MLB Labor Relations Department, or LRD, obtained by USA Today.

The combined LRD payrolls of those three overachievers don’t come close to the Mets or Dodgers, highlighting the enormous disparity between the haves and have-nots that team owners point to while demanding a salary cap during ongoing collective bargaining negotiations.

Oddly, only one playoff qualifier is among the 14 mid-range payrolls of roughly $100 million to $200 million — the Milwaukee Brewers, who achieved baseball’s best record at 103-59 while paying its roster $143.5 million. The Angels are also among that group, ranking No. 15 at $179.8, not enough to keep them from losing 100 games for the first time in franchise history.

The LRD payroll tracks a team’s real-time salary commitments for the current season, accounting for the 26-man MLB roster’s base salaries plus a prorated portion of signing bonuses. LRD differs from luxury tax payrolls, which are based on the average annual value of every player contract on the 40-man roster.

Luxury tax payrolls determine whether a team exceeds the league’s luxury tax threshold and owes financial penalties. MLB is using luxury tax payrolls in the CBA negotiations over a hard salary cap and floor, proposing a $245.3-million ceiling and $171.2-million floor for 2027.

Luxury tax penalties from clubs that exceed the thresholds funnel back to low-revenue clubs through revenue sharing. A record $402,637,907 was paid in luxury tax penalties last season, with the Dodgers paying the most at a record $169.4 million. This year, the Dodgers’ luxury tax is projected at $180 million — higher than the LRD payroll of 16 teams.

The Dodgers also have the highest luxury tax payroll at $430 million, dwarfing the Mets’ $363-million number. Reasons? The Dodgers pay more in penalties because they have exceeded the luxury tax six years in a row, they have more players with massive average annual values and they took on additional penalties by acquiring starter Tarik Skubal at the trade deadline.

MLB 2026 payrolls (playoff teams in bold)

1. New York Mets: $346.8 million

2. Dodgers: $338.0 million

3. New York Yankees: $304.6 million

4. Philadelphia Phillies: $291.7 million

5. Toronto Blue Jays: $275.4 million

6. Atlanta Braves: $263.9 million

7. Houston Astros: $249.5 million

8. Chicago Cubs: $248.8 million

9. San Diego Padres: $223.9 million

10. Boston Red Sox: $210.2 million

11. Detroit Tigers: $202.1 million

12. San Francisco Giants: $197.6 million

13. Arizona Diamondbacks: $192.8 million

14. Texas Rangers: $192.5 million

15. Angels: $179.8 million

16. Seattle Mariners: $170.5 million

17. Baltimore Orioles: $169.2 million

18. Kansas City Royals: $149.8 million

19. Milwaukee Brewers: $143.5 million

20. Cincinnati Reds: $128.3 million

21. Colorado Rockies: $117.0 million

22. Minnesota Twins: $109.5 million

23. Pittsburgh Pirates: $107.6 million

24. Athletics: $98.7 million

25. Tampa Bay Rays: $98.3 million

26. Chicago White Sox: $98.0 million

27. St. Louis Cardinals: $94.7 million

28. Washington Nationals: $90.3 million

29. Miami Marlins: $83.0 million

30. Cleveland Guardians: $74.2 million

Let’s get the rose-colored story line out of the way, right away.

The postseason starts Tuesday, and it could be the last we see of Major League Baseball for a long, long time. The owners expect to lock out the players when the collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1, and the owners have made their pitch loud and clear: No new agreement without a salary cap, for they believe there can be no true competitive balance without one.

You’ll hear a lot about how the way this postseason sets up, or how it plays out, could impact the bargaining.

Don’t believe a word of it. Nothing that happens this October will be relevant to the new labor agreement.

Come on. The team with the lowest payroll — the Cleveland Guardians — won their division. So competitive balance can’t be completely out of whack, can it?

Cleveland hasn’t won the World Series since 1948. The opponent was the Boston Braves, who subsequently moved to Milwaukee and then Atlanta.

What about the team with the best record in the American League: the Tampa Bay Rays, who beat up on big-market bullies in the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox?

The Rays never have won the World Series.

Well, what about the Milwaukee Brewers? For the second consecutive season, the team in baseball’s smallest market posted baseball’s best record.

The Brewers got swept in last year’s National League Championship Series. They never have won the World Series.

But aren’t the Brewers the best example of a team playing beyond its payroll instead of using it as an excuse?

They got smoked last October by the Dodgers, who won the World Series and then signed Edwin Díaz and Kyle Tucker and traded for Tarik Skubal.

Isn’t that what got everyone agitated? Doesn’t everyone outside L.A. know the Dodgers have destroyed competitive balance, and the owners are trying to fix it?

The owners were ready to fight for more than a year before the Dodgers helped themselves to Díaz, Tucker and Skubal. For years, the commissioner’s office touted baseball’s competitive balance, citing in part how the league championship series and World Series matchups changed almost every year.

After the Dodgers won in 2024, the commissioner’s office redefined competitive balance as how often a small-market team won the World Series, last accomplished by the 2015 Kansas City Royals. The seeds for this winter’s labor war had been planted.

If the Dodgers flop this October, the owners are not going to suddenly back off a salary cap. If, say, the Brewers or Rays win, the owners will say that’s the exception that proves the rule.

There are ways for owners to direct more revenue to small-market teams without the salary cap the players insist they will not accept, and without limiting the definition of success to winning the World Series, which risks devaluing the product among 29 fan bases every year. Whether the owners wish to consider them without the cost certainty that comes with a salary cap will be the story line of the cold winter ahead.

The Dodgers are scheduled to open next season on March 25. Neither owners nor players would have lost any significant revenue by then — ticket sales and broadcasting rights for owners, salaries for players — so a new agreement by then is uncertain at best.

So enjoy the postseason.

So, at least for now, isn’t the postseason tilted toward the Dodgers and Yankees?

Those screams you hear are coming from New York, where Yankees fans are annoyed that their team finished with the second-best record in the AL and still could be eliminated in two or three days. The Yankees finished behind the Rays and received a wild card.

The Yankees lost 13 fewer games than the AL West champion Houston Astros and 10 fewer games than the AL Central champion Guardians, both seeded ahead of them. The Astros are a .500 team, the worst record a division champion has taken into the postseason. The Guardians get a bye, just like the Dodgers.

The Yankees drew the Red Sox, which means painful amounts of national commentary will focus on (1) how the system victimized the Yankees and the Red Sox; and (2) baseball’s most hyped rivalry.

Until baseball realigns its divisions or seeds its playoffs by wins, regardless of division, the Yankees should simply do what Aaron Judge said about how they should respond to criticism of their fundamentally frightening 2024 World Series: “Play better.” And baseball’s best rivalry will be on October display only if the Dodgers and San Diego Padres meet in the NL Championship Series.

Still laughing, though, at sanctimonious Yankees fans believing baseball is somehow unfair to the poor, gutty Yankees.

Can anyone save baseball in 2027?

We should try Pope Leo. He’s a long-suffering Chicago White Sox fan. In his first full year as pope — and after three consecutive 100-loss seasons — the White Sox made the playoffs.

Some fans call it a miracle, a reporter told the pope. Did the pope have anything to do with the turnaround?

He smiled.

“No comment,” he said, then paused.

“Great things happen in Chicago,” he said.

The Cubs made the postseason too. The Cubs and White Sox have shared Chicago since 1901. This is the fourth time both have qualified for postseason play. Deep dish pizza for all, but a World Series in Chicago this fall might truly require divine intervention.