polls

Bangkok, Thailand – The orange campaign buses of Thailand’s opposition People’s Party have been hard to miss in recent weeks, winding through cities and villages carrying reformist politicians on what they call the “Choose the Future” tour.

At rally stops, thousands have gathered to hear promises of change.

On social media, videos of the candidates have drawn millions of views.

For many, the support for the party before Sunday’s general election has stirred hope that the democratic future it promises may finally be within reach.

But in Thailand, winning an election does not guarantee the right to govern.

Known simply as the Orange party for its signature colour, the People’s Party is the latest incarnation of a progressive movement that has repeatedly clashed with Thailand’s royalist conservative establishment. Its predecessor won the last election in 2023, taking 151 seats in the 500-member House. Yet it was blocked from power by a military-appointed Senate and later dissolved by the Constitutional Court over its calls to curb the powers of the monarchy.

“Our ‘soldiers’ might have grown in number, but the conservative side’s arsenal is still devastatingly strong,” said Thankrit Duangmaneeporn, co-director of Breaking the Cycle, a documentary about the “Orange Movement”. But he said he hoped the party could still force the entrenched establishment into a compromise by demonstrating overwhelming support at the polls.

“We will fight at the ballot box on Sunday,” he said. “That is all we can do.”

Overturned mandates

For more than a quarter-century, Thailand – a nation of about 71 million people – has been trapped in a dispiriting loop. Reformist parties win elections, only to be removed by courts, coups or other interventions by judges, generals and tycoons, all loyal to the monarchy.

Many fear the pattern is about to repeat itself.

While opinion polls suggest the People’s Party will again win the most seats on Sunday, analysts say the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, led by caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, stands a better chance of forming a government.

A January 30 survey by the National Institute of Development Administration put the People’s Party leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, in first place for prime minister with 29.1 percent, followed by Anutin at 22.4 percent. For party lists, the People’s Party led with 34.2 percent, followed by Bhumjaithai at 22.6 percent. In third was Pheu Thai, the party of jailed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, with 16.2 percent.

A candidate for the top job must secure the backing of 251 legislators. Unless the People’s Party can reach that threshold on its own, analysts say Bhumjaithai could manoeuvre – with the support of conservative power brokers, Pheu Thai and smaller parties – into forming the next government.

The People’s Party traces its roots to the Future Forward Party, founded in 2018 with a pledge to curb the influence of unelected institutions. It quickly became the most serious challenge to elite domination of Thai politics and the economy in a generation, winning 81 seats in its first election in 2019.

But it was disbanded by the courts the following year.

Reconstituted as Move Forward, the party went on to win the 2023 election — only to be dissolved again the next year.

‘We don’t use money to buy power’

Rukchanok Srinork, a 32-year-old lawmaker for the reborn People’s Party’s Bangbon District in Bangkok, said past defeats should not extinguish hopes. Speaking from a rally stop in the northern city of Chiang Mai, Rukchanok, who goes by the nickname “Ice”, said her party has already changed Thai politics.

“We are a party that won an election without spending a single baht on buying votes,” she told Al Jazeera, referring to the vote-buying practices that have long shaped Thailand’s elections, particularly in rural areas.

“We don’t use money to buy power,” she said.

Rukchanok’s own rise reflects the party’s appeal.

Once an online vendor, she built a following through social media critiques of corruption and military overreach, then entered the National Assembly on the strength of that support. Her story, she said, showed what could be possible in a fairer system.

“When people understand they have a role and that their voice matters, they won’t lose hope in politics,” Rukchanok said.

But that idealism might not be enough.

Prinya Thaewanarumitkul, a legal scholar at Thammasat University, warned that “money politics” could still tilt outcomes in rural areas, even if voters increasingly “take the money but vote with their heart”.

For the People’s Party, the possibility of forming a government “becomes real” only if it secures 200 seats or more, he added.

A conservative counteroffensive

Anutin, the caretaker prime minister, is the heir to a construction fortune and the face of Thailand’s cannabis legalisation. He became prime minister in August after the Constitutional Court removed his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, over her handling of a border crisis with Cambodia.

Since then, he has skilfully exploited nationalist sentiment around the conflict, which killed 149 people on both sides before a ceasefire in December.

“Anyone can say ‘choose me and you won’t regret it,’” Anutin told a rally near the border with Cambodia this week. “But Bhumjaithai says that with the military on our side, we will never be defeated.”

Backed by the royalist establishment, Anutin has assembled a team of seasoned figures from business and diplomatic circles and drawn support from powerful political dynasties that trade their support for cabinet positions.

His party has also rolled out populist policies, including a subsidy programme that covers half the cost of food and has proved popular among struggling households and small businesses.

“I don’t know many other policies,” said Buapan Anusak, 56, at a recent Bhumjaithai rally in Bangkok. “But there also has to be a prime minister that’s patriotic,” she added, referring to the border tensions.

Bhumjaithai has also made inroads into territory once dominated by Pheu Thai, the party that won every election from 2001 until the People’s Party’s breakthrough in 2023.

Pheu Thai’s founder Thaksin, now 76, remains a hero to many for policies like universal healthcare. But Pheu Thai has lost its mantle as the voice of reform to the People’s Party, after it placed second in the last election and joined military-backed parties to form a government. Since then, two of its governments have collapsed, with two prime ministers — including Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn — removed by the courts.

Thaksin is currently in prison, with a parole hearing scheduled for May, around the time a new government must be formed.

“Thaksin remains a master of the ‘deal,’” said Prinya, the scholar at Thammasat University. And given Thaksin’s legal troubles and the pending cases against his daughter, the politician “is heavily incentivised to maintain a partnership with the conservative establishment,” Prinya added.

Economic strain

Whoever wins on Sunday will inherit a country in economic distress.

Tariffs have hurt exporters, growth has slowed to less than 2 percent, and tourist arrivals have declined.

“This may be a last chance to repair Thailand’s once-Teflon economy,” said Pavida Pananond, a professor of international business at Thammasat University, referring to the country’s historical resilience. But to bounce back, political stability would be essential, she stressed.

“Respecting the results and avoiding political manoeuvring that derails democratic processes is essential to restore economic confidence,” she added.

Back on the campaign trail, Rukchanok urged Thais not to give up.

“The moment you stop sending your signal by voting, that is when the 1 percent who hold this country’s resources will decide for you,” she said. “People may look at politics and see something ‘dirty’ — full of bluffing, mudslinging and endless arguing. But your life can only change if politics changes.”

She paused, then added: “We still have faith in the people.”

Laura Fernandez, President Rodrigo Chaves’s protege and former chief of staff, is a frontrunner and could avoid an April 5 run-off.

Polls have opened in the Costa Rica general election as the ‍centre-right populist government seeks to extend its mandate and secure control of the Legislative Assembly at a time when drug-fuelled violence has gripped the country.

Voting stations opened at 6am local time (12:00 GMT) on Sunday and will remain open until 6pm (24:00 GMT), with early trends likely within hours.

Laura Fernandez, President Rodrigo Chaves’s protege and former chief of staff, is leading in the polls ⁠with more than 40 percent, enough to win outright and avoid an April 5 run-off. ​She has pledged to continue Chaves’s tough security policies and anti-establishment message.

Her closest ‍rivals in the 20-candidate field are Alvaro Ramos, a centrist economist representing Costa Rica’s oldest political party, and Claudia Dobles, an architect representing a progressive coalition and a former first lady whose husband, Carlos Alvarado, ‍served as president ⁠from 2018 to 2022.

Both are polling in the single digits but are seen as the two most likely to compete in a possible run-off if Fernandez falls short of 40 percent.

Fernandez has also urged voters to hand her 40 seats in the country’s 57-seat Legislative Assembly, a supermajority that would allow her to pursue constitutional reforms. The current government holds just eight seats and has blamed ​congressional gridlock for blocking its agenda.

Polls show about a ‌quarter of the 3.7 million voters remain undecided, with the largest group being between the ages of 18 and 34 and from the coastal provinces of Guanacaste, Puntarenas and Limon.

“People are tired of promises from all the governments, including ‌this one, even though the government has said things that are true, like needing stronger laws to restore order,” said Yheison ‌Ugarte, a 26-year-old deliveryman from downtown Limon, a Caribbean ⁠port city that has been the hardest hit by drug violence.

Despite homicides surging to an all-time high during his term and multiple corruption investigations, Chaves remains deeply popular, with a 58 percent approval rating, according to the University of Costa ‌Rica’s CIEP polling.

While consecutive re-election is not allowed in Costa Rica, Fernandez has pledged to include Chaves in her government and positioned herself as the continuity of his mandate.

Ousted premier says the exclusion of her Awami League party “deepens resentment” on Muhammad Yunus’s interim government.

Bangladesh’s toppled leader Sheikh Hasina has denounced her country’s election next month after her party was barred from participating in the polls, raising fears of wider political division and possible unrest.

In a message published by The Associated Press news agency on Thursday, Hasina said “a government born of exclusion cannot unite a divided nation.”

Hasina, who was sentenced to death in absentia for her crackdown on a student uprising in 2024 that killed hundreds of people and led to the fall of her 15-year government, has been sharpening her critique of the interim government of Nobel Peace winner Muhammad Yunus in recent days, as the election that will shape the nation’s next chapter looms.

“Each time political participation is denied to a significant portion of the population, it deepens resentment, delegitimises institutions and creates the conditions for future instability,” the former leader, who is living in exile in India, warned in her email to the AP.

She also claimed that the current Bangladesh government deliberately disenfranchised millions of her supporters by excluding her party – the former governing Awami League – from the election.

More than 127 million people in Bangladesh are eligible to vote in the February 12 election, widely seen as the country’s most consequential in decades and the first since Hasina’s removal from power after the mass uprising.

Yunus’s government is overseeing the process, with voters also weighing a proposed constitutional referendum on sweeping political reforms.

Campaigning started last week, with rallies in the capital, Dhaka, and elsewhere.

Yunus returned to Bangladesh and took over three days after Hasina fled to India on August 5, 2024, following weeks of violent unrest.

He has promised a free and fair election, but critics question whether the process will meet democratic standards and whether it will be genuinely inclusive after the ban on Hasina’s Awami League.

There are also concerns over security and uncertainty surrounding the referendum, which could bring about major changes to the constitution.

Yunus’s office said in a statement to the AP that security forces will ensure an orderly election and will not allow anyone to influence the outcome through coercion or violence. International observers and human rights groups have been invited to monitor the process, the statement added.

Tarique Rahman, the son of former prime minister and Hasina rival, Khaleda Zia, returned to Bangladesh after his mother’s death in December.

Rahman, the acting chairman of Khaleda’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party, is a strong candidate to win the forthcoming election.

On Friday, Hasina made her first public speech since her ouster, telling a packed press club in Delhi that Bangladesh “will never experience free and fair elections” under Yunus’s watch.

Her remarks on Friday were broadcast online and streamed live to more than 100,000 of her supporters.

The statement was criticised by Bangladesh’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which issued a statement saying it was “surprised” and “shocked” that India had allowed her to make a public address.

Bangladesh has been asking India to extradite Hasina, but New Delhi has yet to comment on the request.

India’s past support for Hasina has frayed relations between the South Asian neighbours since her overthrow.

Jan. 26 (UPI) — With one week to go before presidential elections scheduled for Sunday, Feb. 1, Costa Rica closed its campaign season amid a polarized political climate and with the ruling party leading most opinion polls.

In recent weeks, multiple surveys have shown Laura Fernández Delgado, candidate of the ruling Partido Pueblo Soberano, holding first place with support levels close to 40%. That figure would be enough for the former cabinet minister to secure a first-round victory.

However, polls also point to high voter indecision, estimated at around 45%, in a context marked by political fragmentation and an unusually large field of candidates, local newspaper El Observador reported.

A recent survey by the Centro de Investigación y Estudios Políticos (CIEP) of the Universidad de Costa Rica places Fernández at 30% support, still well ahead of the remaining 19 candidates competing for the presidency.

Second place is held by Álvaro Ramos of the Partido Liberación Nacional, who polls below 8%. Most other candidates register less than 2.3% support.

Fernández, 39, has campaigned on a continuity platform, seeking to capitalize on the popularity of President Rodrigo Chaves, who is expected to leave office with approval ratings near 60%. His support has been driven in part by a confrontational style and rhetoric against traditional politics and established elites.

Chaves, who is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election, has governed amid persistent political tension and frequent institutional clashes. His administration has been characterized by sharp rhetoric, public disputes with other branches of government and a governing style that emphasizes direct communication and political confrontation.

The elections follow a dispute with the Tribunal Supremo Electoral, which in October 2025 asked the Legislative Assembly to lift the president’s immunity to investigate alleged violations of electoral rules, including his participation in campaign activities.

Public security has emerged as one of the dominant themes throughout the campaign, reflecting growing concern among voters over rising violent crime and the expanding influence of organized crime in several regions of the country, according to daily La Nación.

During debates organized by media outlets and universities, candidates broadly agreed that addressing insecurity requires more than law enforcement alone. Proposals have emphasized criminal intelligence, increased police presence, improved coordination among state institutions and the recovery of territories affected by organized crime.

According to CIEP, two out of three Costa Ricans believe the country’s security situation is worse than a year ago. Long viewed as one of Central America’s safest nations, Costa Rica is facing an unprecedented security crisis.

Organized crime, fueled largely by drug trafficking, has expanded its presence in neighborhoods in southern San Jose, as well as in the provinces of Limón and Puntarenas. In 2024, Costa Rica recorded a homicide rate of 16.6 per 100,000 inhabitants, ranking eighth highest in Latin America, surpassing Guatemala and approaching levels reported in Mexico.