Oil and Gas

Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam – After a long day of ferrying passengers to and fro recently, e-hailing driver Nguyen was dejected to find he had spent half of his earnings on fuel.

“I drove for around seven or eight hours, making around 240,000 Vietnamese dong [$9.11] and then I paid 120,000 Vietnamese dong [$4.56] on petrol,” Nguyen, a motorcyclist who connects with passengers via the locally developed super-app Be, told Al Jazeera, asking not to be identified by his real name.

“I can’t survive with this amount of money in the city.”

In Vietnam, the ripples of the US-Israel war on Iran are hitting many gig workers hard.

The Southeast Asian country normally sources about 80 percent of its crude oil from Kuwait, but shipments have dried up amid Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, driving up fuel prices.

Diesel prices have more than doubled, while petrol prices have risen almost 30 percent, making getting from point A to point B an increasingly expensive proposition in cities such as Ho Chi Minh City, home to more than 7 million motorcycles.

“Because the petrol price is so high, so many drivers are turning off the app, going home and just not working,” Nguyen said.

“After today, I will turn off the app and stop working for a few days to see if the price goes down or if the government is helping in any way.”

Vietnam’s government has rolled out a series of emergency measures to cushion the blow for citizens.

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh last month announced that an environmental tax on diesel, petrol, and aviation fuel would be suspended until April 15 to help stabilise prices.

Nguyen Khac Giang, a Vietnamese-born visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said authorities had been forced to act to stave off rising disgruntlement among citizens.

“There are a lot of complaints and frustrations about rising living costs, because gas prices are everything in Vietnam,” Giang told Al Jazeera.

“It’s not only necessary in terms of making the population feel relief about the rise of gas prices, but at the same time, it will keep the macroeconomic stability intact, given the turbulence outside Vietnam.”

Despite the government sacrificing an estimated $273m in revenue via the tax cut, signs of strain are mounting across the economy.

Public transportation is stretched to capacity in major cities, while domestic carriers such as Vietnam Airlines and Vietjet Air have slashed flights.

“As a very, very open economy, Vietnam is super vulnerable to international shocks,” Giang said.

Gig workers have been particularly exposed due to the double whammy of heavy fuel consumption and minimal labour protections.

“Their income is changeable due to factors beyond their control,” Do Hai Ha, a research fellow at the University of Melbourne who has studied Vietnam’s gig platforms, told Al Jazeera.

“They have no chance to negotiate with the platforms.”

Many drivers have had no choice but to work longer hours as they are “excluded from labour protection, so there’s no guarantee in terms of minimum wages or overtime pay”, Do said.

Companies, too, are feeling the crunch.

Anh Dao, who collects fares on Ho Chi Minh City’s bus route 13, said the bus operator has been losing money due to the surge in diesel prices, despite raising ticket prices by 3,000 Vietnamese dong ($0.11).

“As we already signed the contract, we cannot just stop running the buses,” Ahn told Al Jazeera.

For one fisherman in the coastal region of Binh Thuan, about 200km (124 miles) from Ho Chi Minh City, rising fuel costs have prompted a frantic search for cheaper options to power his basket boat.

“Now that fuel prices are rising, it’s having a big impact,” the fisherman told Al Jazeera, asking not to be identified by name. The middlemen he does business with have been citing weak demand to justify offering lower prices for his catch, he said.

“What I was usually able to sell for 800,000 Vietnamese dong [$30] is now only selling for 650,000 Vietnamese dong [$24],” he said.

Families kept apart

For some low-income families, the rising costs are reshaping daily life in other ways.

After a weeklong trip to the Mekong Delta region, Uyen Pham, a communications manager for the Saigon Children’s Charity, said she has seen the strain firsthand.

“Several parents noted that the cost of bottled cooking gas has nearly doubled,” Pham told Al Jazeera.

“Most of our beneficiary families have always relied on wood-fired stoves or a hybrid of wood and gas to save money. With the recent price hike, they are now strictly limiting their gas usage even further, relying almost entirely on wood to cut every possible expense.”

For many parents, the rising fuel costs have also meant less time with family.

“Many parents in remote areas must leave their children with grandparents to work in cities,” Pham said.

“Rising fuel prices directly increase their commuting costs, while manual labour wages remain stagnant. This pinches their take-home pay and, in some cases, reduces how often they can afford to travel home to see their children.”

For the government in Hanoi, the price volatility has intensified the focus on greater energy independence, Giang, the visiting fellow, said.

“The longer-term question this crisis has enacted is a very important question about the strategic autonomy of Vietnam in terms of energy dependencies, especially when we are a net importer of oil,” he said.

Policymakers will need to “more aggressively accelerate Vietnam’s energy independence by building more refineries,” Giang said, “because now we only have two refineries, which is not enough for the Vietnamese market.”

With long-term solutions likely to take years to come to fruition, authorities are scrambling for short-term fixes.

Late last month, Vietnam’s prime minister and a delegation from the Ministry of Industry and Trade visited on the Nghi Son Refinery and Petrochemical Complex, the country’s largest refinery, in Thanh Hoa, a coastal city about 1,500km (932 miles) north of Ho Chi Minh City.

During their visit, officials said the refinery, which supplies about 40 percent of Vietnam’s petrol needs, would urgently need to find alternative sources of crude, as current supplies were expected to run out by the end of May.

The war on Iran also appears to be reshaping at least some domestic investment.

Vingroup, Vietnam’s largest conglomerate, last month informed authorities that it wanted to halt plans to build the country’s largest liquefied gas-fired power plant and put the funds towards a renewable energy project instead, according to a letter reported by the Bloomberg and Reuters news agencies.

In the letter, the company cited “the significant risk of high fuel prices for LNG power projects” due to the war.

In the meantime, Duy, who works at a cafe tucked behind a Ho Chi Minh City petrol station, is feeling some relief after the government’s fuel tax cut, which authorities projected would reduce petrol prices by about one-quarter and diesel prices by about 5 percent.

“I usually pay 100,000 Vietnamese dong [$3.80] a week on gas, but at the peak of the high prices a few days ago, it was almost double that,” she told Al Jazeera.

“It affected my income.”

Additional reporting by Nguyen Hao Thanh Thao

The rise is largely symbolic as some key members are unable to raise ​production amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to increase oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a rise that is largely symbolic as some of its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil route – since the end of ⁠February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Iraq.

In a statement on Sunday, eight members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to increase May quotas during a virtual meeting.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability,” the statement read.

“The eight countries also expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability,” it added.

While the quota increase represents less than two percent of the supply disrupted by the closure of the strait, OPEC+ sources told the Reuters news agency that the pledge had signalled readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.

Crude prices have surged to a four-year high amid the war, close to $120 a barrel, leading to higher prices for transport fuels.

On Thursday, JPMorgan said oil prices could spike above $150, an all-time high, if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May.

May’s increase is the same as the eight members had agreed on for April at their last meeting on March 1. But amid the war, oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as much as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15 percent of global supply.

With the strait still closed, Iran has allowed some countries in the region to use the waterway.

Iran has said Iraq was exempt from any transit restrictions through the strait, with shipping data on Sunday showing a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the waterway.

Oman’s Foreign Ministry announced on Sunday that deputy foreign minister-level talks were being held with Iran to discuss ⁠⁠options to ensure the smooth transit of vessels through the Strait ‌‌of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump threatened to escalate attacks and target Iranian civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Monday.

Economist James Meadway says US President Donald Trump offers threats but no clear plan to end the crisis, leaving markets unsettled as disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure spreads beyond Asia and into Europe.

Drivers lined up for free gas in Chicago as fuel prices surge, driven by the US-Israeli war on Iran disrupting global oil supplies, with some blaming President Donald Trump.

Iran says it is ready to counter any US-Israeli attacks, insisting its military capabilities remain intact despite Donald Trump’s claims they’ve been ‘decimated.’

Fuel shocks from the US-Israel war on Iran are rippling worldwide, as Strait of Hormuz disruptions push prices higher. From Nigeria to Vietnam and India, workers face soaring costs, longer hours and lost jobs amid a deepening global energy crisis.

One nation that’s hoping to gain from the United States-Israel war on Iran is Russia, the world’s third largest oil producer. Higher crude prices due to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have allowed Russia to earn more from its oil and gas exports. A sanctions waiver announced by the US is also helping Moscow.
But its revised budget plans are at risk after repeated Ukrainian attacks on its ports and oil refineries. Russia has banned petrol exports to protect against domestic fuel shortages. So can Russia help fill the global energy gap, or is its capacity already under threat?

A Russian tanker has delivered enough fuel to meet Cuba’s energy needs for up to 10 days, following a three-month blockade.

A Russia-flagged tanker carrying 730,000 barrels of oil has docked in Cuba, marking the first time in three months that an oil tanker has reached the island nation.

The administration of United States President Donald Trump allowed the Anatoly Kolodkin to proceed despite an ongoing US energy blockade. The Aframax tanker entered the Bay of Matanzas – the country’s largest supertanker and fuel storage port – on Tuesday at daybreak.

The vessel, under US sanctions, entered Cuban territorial waters late on Sunday, not far from the US Navy base at Guantanamo Bay. The United States said it was allowing the tanker to deliver fuel for humanitarian reasons.

The Anatoly Kolodkin entered the Bay of Matanzas under clear skies and light winds at sunrise. Much of the nearby city – and the majority of Cuba – was without power when the tanker arrived at the port area.

Cuba has not received an oil tanker in three months, according to President Miguel Diaz-Canel, exacerbating an energy crisis that has led to seemingly endless blackouts across the country of 10 million people and brought hospitals, public transportation, and farm production to the brink of collapse.

Cubans, including Energy and Mines Minister Vicente de la O Levy, cheered the ship’s arrival. A shortage of petroleum has exacerbated a deep economic crisis, leaving the population mired in long blackouts and facing severe shortages of food and medicine.

“Our gratitude to the Government and People of Russia for all the support we are receiving. A valuable shipment that arrives amidst the complex energy situation we are facing,” de la O Levy wrote on X.

The fuel, if delivered, would give Cuba’s communist-run government breathing room amid growing pressure from the Trump administration, which has promised change in Cuba.

It will take days before the crude on board the Anatoly Kolodkin can be processed domestically and turned into motor fuel and refined products, such as diesel and fuel oil for power generation.

The ship is carrying Russian Urals, a medium sour crude, which is a good fit for Cuba’s ageing refineries.

Cuba produces barely 40 percent of its required fuel and relies on imports to sustain its energy grid. Experts say the anticipated shipment could produce about 180,000 barrels of diesel, enough to feed Cuba’s daily demand for nine or 10 days.

Cuba used to receive most of its oil from Venezuela, but those shipments have been halted ever since the US attacked the South American country and abducted its leader, Nicolas Maduro, in early January.

The disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut access to one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply, leaving many countries scrambling for alternatives.

So what can they rely on to make up for the shortfall in a quick time?

Many Asian countries are turning to coal, reopening shuttered plants and expanding production.

Policymakers say immediate energy needs supplant environmental concerns.

Others are hoping to turn to renewables. Solar power is now the cheapest form of electricity in many parts of the world. But renewables, especially wind, have faced hostility from the Trump administration.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said that talks with Iran are under way through intermediaries and that Washington will continue its military campaign until Tehran abandons its nuclear and missile programmes.

He warned on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz will be kept open “one way or another” and that US war objectives could be achieved “in weeks, not months”.

He also said the United States would welcome political change in Iran if the opportunity arose, but said it was not an official objective. Rubio criticised some NATO allies for refusing US access to bases during the war, and said Washington is closely watching developments in Cuba and Venezuela.

Here are the key takeaways from Rubio’s exclusive interview with Al Jazeera’s Hashem Ahelbarra:

Marco Rubio says talks with Iran are happening

Much of the communication between Tehran and Washington is indirect and through intermediaries, but Rubio insisted that it is ongoing.

He said there are “messages and some direct talks going on between some inside of Iran and the United States, primarily through intermediaries”, adding that the US president “always prefers diplomacy, always prefers an outcome”.

His comments come as US President Donald Trump escalated his rhetoric on social media, threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure if a ceasefire is not reached soon, Al Jazeera’s Kimberly Halkett reported from Washington.

“Taken together, Rubio’s statements and Trump’s posts suggest the US is pursuing a dual-track approach: keeping diplomatic channels open through intermediaries while simultaneously increasing military and economic pressure on Iran,” she said.

US demands Iran abandon nuclear and missile programmes

Rubio said Iran must abandon its nuclear weapons ambitions and stop producing missiles and drones that can threaten countries across the Gulf region, and insisted “The Iranian regime can never have nuclear weapons.”

He said Iran’s missile programme poses a direct threat to countries across the Gulf, and claimed “These short-range missiles that they’re launching, they only have one purpose, and that is to attack Saudi Arabia and the UAE and Qatar and Kuwait and Bahrain.”

Rubio said Iran could pursue civilian nuclear energy, but not in a way that would allow it to quickly develop a nuclear weapon.

“What they cannot have is a system that allows them to quickly weaponise it,” he said. “They have to abandon all these weapon programmes and all their nuclear ambitions.”

However, Hassan Ahmadian, an assistant professor at the University of Tehran, questioned the narrative that Iran poses an offensive threat in the region.

“When was the last time Iran attacked its neighbours over three centuries?” Ahmadian asked, arguing that Iran’s military strategy is shaped by deterrence in an asymmetric conflict.

“Why is it doing this now? Because it’s the underdog in an asymmetric war that it wants to shield itself by expanding.”

Ahmadian added that Iran has been a central focus of US policy for years.

“With the break of two wars in less than a year, we have experienced, Iran has been on the table in different US administrations – all options are on the table,” he said.

Strait of Hormuz will be kept open ‘one way or another’

Rubio said the US would not accept Iran claiming sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and warned that the waterway would remain open regardless of Iran’s actions.

“Not only is the sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz not acceptable to us, it won’t be acceptable to the world.”

“It sets an incredible precedent … nations can now take over international waterways and claim them as their own.”

“The Strait of Hormuz will be open … It will be open one way or another,” he said, adding that otherwise, Iran would “face real consequences” from the US and other countries.

Iranian analysts suggested the closure of the strait is a temporary wartime measure and could be reversed once the conflict ends.

“It’s opened partially,” Ahmadian said, adding “I think there is no Iranian interest to not open it beyond the war.”

“It’s an asymmetric way of putting pressure on Americans, just as they are bombing Iran, and so after the war there would be no need,” Ahmadian explained. “There will be an arrangement, according to the Iranians, with the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] countries to reopen it and see how things are managed.”

War objectives will be achieved ‘in weeks, not months’

Rubio said the US military campaign is progressing quickly and outlined the military objectives Washington is trying to achieve.

“Those objectives are the destruction of their air force, which has been achieved, the destruction of their navy, which has largely been achieved.”

“A significant reduction in the number of missile launchers… and we are going to destroy the factories that make those missiles and those drones.”

“We are well on our way or ahead of schedule.”

“We will achieve them in weeks, not months.”

“That’s a matter of weeks. I’m not going to tell you exactly how many weeks, but a matter of weeks, not months.”

Rubio says status of Iran’s new supreme leader is uncertain

Asked by Al Jazeera about his thoughts on Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, Rubio said his status remains unclear.

“We don’t even know he’s in power. I know they say he’s in power. No one has seen him. No one has heard from him,” Rubio said.

“It’s very opaque right now. It’s not quite clear how decisions are being made inside of Iran.”

Iran’s leadership change is not an objective of the military operation

The US secretary of state suggested the US would welcome political change in Iran, though he said it was not the official objective of the military operation.

“We would always welcome a scenario in which Iran was led by people that had a different view of the future,” Rubio said. “If that opportunity presents itself, we’re going to take it.”

He said the Iranian people “deserve better leadership” and indicated Washington would not oppose a change in government if it occurred.

“Do we think the people of Iran deserve better leadership than what they’ve gotten from the clerical regime? One hundred percent,” Rubio said. “Would we be heartbroken if there was a change in leadership? Absolutely not.”

He also suggested the US would be willing to play a role if political change became possible.

“If there’s something we could do to facilitate that, would we be interested in participating? Of course.”

However, analysts said Washington’s position on regime change appears to have shifted over time.

“Originally bringing down the government was the goal; there has been a constant drawdown from that,” Paul Musgrave, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera.

“And now we have President Donald Trump on Truth Social saying he is negotiating with elements of what could become a new regime, so there is a lot of confusion here, but it is no longer the number one goal. It’s not something they are laying out,” he noted.

Rubio criticises NATO allies and warns alliance may be reviewed

Rubio said some NATO countries denied the US use of airspace and bases during the conflict and suggested Washington may need to reassess the alliance after the war.

“We have countries like Spain, a NATO member that we are pledged to defend, denying us the use of their airspace and bragging about it, denying us the use of their bases.”

“And so you ask yourself, well, what is in it for the United States?”

“If NATO is just about us defending Europe from attack, but them denying us basing rights when we need them, that’s not a very good arrangement.”

“All of that is going to have to be re-examined.”

United States President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he wishes to “take the oil” in Iran, as the US-Israel war against Iran enters its second month.

On Monday, President Trump threatened to target Iran’s energy infrastructure, including oil wells, if Tehran does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which has been under a de facto Iranian blockade for weeks, triggering a global energy crisis.

The Trump administration has unveiled no clear goal behind its military campaign against Iran, one of the world’s biggest oil producers and under US sanctions for decades.

Here is more about what Trump says, how much oil Iran has, and whether Trump could take it.

What has Trump said about Iran’s oil?

Trump told the Financial Times that his “preference would be to take the oil” in Iran and that US forces could seize Iran’s export hub at Kharg Island.

Kharg is a 22-square-kilometre (8.5-square-mile) coral outcrop in Iran’s Bushehr province. Closely guarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), entry to the island is restricted to those with official security clearance.

Kharg processes 90 percent of Iran’s total oil exports, handling approximately 1.5 million barrels every day.

On March 14, Trump announced that the US Air Force had bombed Iranian military facilities on the island.

“For reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Critics say the Trump administration was emboldened by the success of its brazen military operation in January to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from Caracas. Washington says it is now in control of Venezuela’s oil exports.

Earlier this month, Trump claimed that 100 ⁠million barrels of Venezuelan oil had been brought to refineries in Houston, Texas in the US. He added that ⁠an additional 100 ⁠million barrels of Venezuelan ⁠oil were on the way.

Ties between Venezuela, which has the world’s largest proven reserves of crude oil, and Washington had deteriorated under former President Hugo Chavez, who decided to nationalise the oil sector. Relations collapsed further under Maduro, who succeeded Chavez in 2013. Venezuela’s current interim president, Delcy Rodriguez, has since opened the sector for private investment.

How much oil does Iran have?

Iran is one of the world’s biggest oil producers.

The country holds the world’s second-largest proven natural gas reserves and the third-largest crude oil reserves, according to the United States Energy Information Administration.

Iran holds around 24 percent of the Middle East’s and 12 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves, with about 157 billion barrels of proven crude oil.

It is the ninth-largest oil producer globally, and the fourth-largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), producing about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day.

Before the war, Iran was exporting around two million barrels of crude and refined fuel each day, though its exports dropped dramatically after Trump slapped sanctions on Iran in 2018 during his first term in power. The Iran nuclear deal signed under US President Barack Obama in 2015 – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – placed limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief in place for decades.

The US cut diplomatic ties with Iran after pro-Washington ruler Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was toppled in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the subsequent hostage crisis involving US citizens.

Can the US seize Iranian oil?

The Pentagon is preparing for limited ground operations in Iran, potentially including raids on Kharg Island and coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, according to US officials quoted by the Washington Post newspaper.

The plans, which fall short of a full invasion, could involve raids in special operations and by conventional infantry troops, the newspaper reported on Saturday.

However, even if the US invades or occupies Kharg Island, this would not give the US access to Iranian oil.

In order to access Iranian oil, the US would have to occupy Iran’s oil production sites and refineries. In essence, the US would need to occupy mainland Iran.

What would it mean if the US were to take Iranian oil?

In 2023, Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) was around $457.5bn, according to World Bank data.

In the same year, Iran’s net oil export revenues were estimated at $53bn.

That export figure is equivalent to roughly 12 percent of Iran’s GDP, although export revenues and GDP are not directly comparable.

At the same time, if the US were to lift sanctions on Iranian oil after seizing it, it could lead to a flow of more Iranian oil into global markets, bringing down oil prices.

Iran is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries in the world. The US first imposed sanctions on Iran in November 1979, after Iranian students stormed its embassy in Tehran and took Americans hostage. The hostage crisis ended when dozens of US citizens were released after more than a year.

The US-Israeli war on Iran has sent global oil prices soaring. Benchmark Brent crude rose to more than 3 percent on Monday to $116 a barrel – the highest level in nearly two weeks. The oil price was about $65 per barrel before the war.

Has the US tried to interfere in Iranian oil before?

Yes; this is not the first time the US has shown an interest in Iranian oil.

In 1953, the government of Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran’s first democratically elected prime minister, was toppled in a CIA-orchestrated coup after he nationalised the British-controlled firm Anglo‑Iranian Oil Company (AIOC), the predecessor of modern-day BP.

Washington framed the operation – codenamed “Operation Ajax” – as a Cold War necessity to keep Iran and its energy reserves out of Soviet hands.

The coup restored and entrenched the shah’s rule, a turning point that still haunts Iran’s relationship with the West.

Neighbouring Iraq’s oil revenue is still effectively under US control more than two decades after the US invaded the Middle East nation. Iraq’s oil revenues are deposited into an account at the Federal Reserve Bank in the US before making it to Baghdad.

DEVELOPING STORYDEVELOPING STORY,

Crude prices continue to climb as world faces its biggest energy crisis in decades.

Oil prices have surged to their highest level in nearly two weeks amid escalation on multiple fronts of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose more than 3 percent on Monday morning to top $116 a barrel.

The latest climb took the global benchmark to its highest point since March 19, when it briefly touched $119 a barrel.

The surge came after Iran said it was prepared for a US ground invasion, with the speaker of the country’s parliament warning that Tehran was waiting for the arrival of US troops to “set them on fire” and “punish” their regional allies.

Tehran’s warning came as the conflict deepened over the weekend, with the Iranian-backed Houthis launching missiles at Israel for the first time in the war, and Israel expanding its invasion of southern Lebanon.

Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the US-Israel war has disrupted about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, plunging the world into its biggest energy crisis in decades.

Oil prices have risen nearly 60 percent since the start of the war, driving up fuel prices worldwide and forcing numerous countries to adopt emergency measures to conserve energy.

Analysts have warned that oil prices are likely to keep rising unless maritime traffic returns to normal levels in the strait.

Greg Newman, the CEO the Onyx Capital Group, which began as an oil derivatives trading house, said that energy markets were only beginning to feel the fallout of the turmoil.

“Physical oil moves around the world in loading cycles , and Europe has taken around three weeks to really start feeling the effects of the oil shortage,” Newman told Al Jazeera.

“Brent is starting to reflect the reality, and we think it’s a steady rise from here towards $120 and beyond.”

Newman said the scale of the disruption had yet to be fully appreciated.

No one in the market has ever seen the outages we are now suffering from – physical premiums are the highest ever. There is still a sense that the macro world is not taking this seriously enough, but it is worse than anything that has come before it,” he said.

“The reality will come out in the economic numbers over the coming months.”

More to follow…

Tensions continue to rise with Iran warning a ‘heavy price’ will be paid after Israeli attacks on nuclear and industrial sites.

President Donald Trump said he is “very disappointed” with NATO’s response to the United States-Israeli war on Iran, accusing the alliance of failing to support Washington despite years of US military spending on its allies.

Meanwhile, Iran warned a “heavy price” will be paid after Israeli attacks on nuclear and industrial sites, with Tehran accusing the US and Israel of “playing with fire” by targeting energy infrastructure. Iran also said there was no radioactive leak following attacks on two nuclear facilities.

The warnings come as fighting and tensions continue to escalate across the Middle East, with growing fears of a wider conflict.

Here is what we know:

In Iran

• Israel hits Tehran: Israel’s military said it launched attacks on Iranian “regime targets” early Saturday.
• Hopes for Iran talks this week: US envoy Steve Witkoff said he expects meetings with Iran “this week” and is waiting for Tehran’s response to a 15-point peace plan.
• Iran pledges “heavy price” for plant strikes: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran would exact a “heavy price for Israeli crimes” after attacks on nuclear sites and two of the country’s largest steel factories.
• Iran feels “forced” into talks: Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall, reporting from Tehran, said many Iranians believe they are being pushed into negotiations that are not in their favour, with the sense that “the Americans are bombing their way towards a negotiation table.” Rather than relying on US or Israeli promises, he said Iran is relying on “its missiles, its drones, and the resolve of its soldiers”.
• Russia likely aiding Iran with satellite intelligence: Al Jazeera’s Mansur Mirovalev reported Iran is likely receiving data on US military assets from Russia’s Liana spy satellite system, according to a space programme expert.

War diplomacy

• Trump criticises NATO over Hormuz: Trump said NATO allies “weren’t there” when asked to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, despite the US spending “hundreds of billions” protecting them. “I’ve always said NATO is a paper tiger. And I always said we help NATO, but they’ll never help us.”
• Possible Pakistan meeting: Turkiye said talks with Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt could take place in Pakistan this weekend as Islamabad mediates between Iran and the US.
• UN nuclear watchdog urges “restraint”: The International Atomic Energy Agency repeated its call for “restraint” in the Middle East war after Israel struck two Iranian nuclear facilities, including a uranium processing plant.
• “Regime change” unlikely: The war is unlikely to lead to “regime change” in Iran, said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “If that’s the goal, I don’t think you’ll achieve it. It’s mostly gone wrong” in past conflicts, he said, pointing to the Afghanistan war.

In the Gulf

• Saudi Arabia intercepts missile: Saudi Arabia said it “intercepted and destroyed” a missile targeting the capital Riyadh. Meanwhile, at least 12 US military personnel were wounded, including two seriously, in an Iranian attack on an airbase in the kingdom, The Associated Press and Reuters news agencies reported on Friday.
• United Arab Emirates: The UAE’s Ministry of Defence reported that air defence systems and fighter jets intercepted and shot down incoming missiles and drones from Iran.
• Kuwait: Though experiencing some slower nights recently, residents in Kuwait say they have grown accustomed to the disruption of alarms sounding throughout the night.

In the US

• US aims to finish war in “weeks”: Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington expects to complete its Iran war objectives in the “next couple weeks”, leaving Iran “weaker”.
• US soldiers wounded: More than 300 American soldiers have been wounded since the start of the war on February 28, US Central Command said.

In Israel

• Direct attacks: Israel continues to face significant incoming fire on multiple fronts. Iran launched a missile salvo that struck a busy commercial street in Tel Aviv.
• Man killed: Israeli emergency responders said a man was killed in Tel Aviv on Friday, and several others were wounded across the country after the military reported missiles fired from Iran.

In Lebanon, Yemen, occupied West Bank

• Houthis warn they’ll join the fight: Yemen’s Houthi rebels warned they would enter the war if attacks on Iran continue or if more countries join the conflict. The Houthis have in the past attacked shipping in the Red Sea in response to regional conflicts, but have so far not intervened in this war.
• Israel expands ground war in Lebanon: Israeli troops entered Khiam and clashed with Hezbollah near Tyre as Israel pushes to create a “security zone” up to the Litani River. Hezbollah said it attacked Israeli tanks and fired at a warplane over Beirut.
• Israel cites Hezbollah threat: Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride, reporting from Amman, said Israel is using the threat from Hezbollah in the north to justify expanding its ground incursion into southern Lebanon to push Hezbollah back and create a “buffer zone”.
• Hezbollah escalation: Hezbollah forces have fiercely resisted the Israeli advance, claiming to have carried out 82 operations against Israeli troops within 24 hours.
• West Bank violence continues: Israeli forces killed three Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, including a 15-year-old boy in Dheisheh refugee camp and two men in Qalandiya.

Oil, food, and gas crises

• Strait of Hormuz: To prevent a “massive humanitarian crisis”, the United Nations has established a new task force led by Jorge Moreira da Silva. It aims to ensure ships carrying fertiliser and raw materials can safely cross the strait, warning that maritime trade disruptions could severely affect global agricultural production and humanitarian needs.
• Egypt imposes business curfew: Egypt has ordered shops, restaurants, and shopping malls to close at 9pm (19:00 GMT) from Saturday, hoping to curb energy bills that have more than doubled because of the Iran war.
• Overnight queues in Ethiopia: Many Ethiopians slept in their cars in hours-long queues for petrol as shortages caused by the war began to take their toll. The Horn of Africa country is particularly vulnerable as it imports all its petrol, primarily from the Gulf.
• Tea stuck in Kenya: Between 6,000 and 8,000 tonnes of tea worth $24m is stuck at Kenya’s port of Mombasa because of the war, trade officials said. About 65 percent of the East African tea market has been affected by the war that began on February 28. This is happening because the war is disrupting shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, which are key routes for trade between Asia, the Middle East and Europe.

The US-Israeli war on Iran is hitting Gulf Arab nations hard – but with a wider impact in today’s interlinked world.

As well as global oil and gas supplies, Gulf states play a critical role in many economies.

So how are they connected – and what could be at risk?

Presenter: James Bays

Guests:

Nikolay Kozjharnov – Research associate professor in energy security at the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University

Cornelia Meyer – Macroeconomist and oil and gas specialist

Torbjorn Soltvedt – Associate director at global risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio has offered wide-ranging remarks upon his departure from the latest Group of Seven (G7) ministers’ meeting in France, denouncing Iran’s continued chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz as well as settler violence in the occupied West Bank.

Standing on an airport tarmac on Friday, Rubio fielded questions from journalists about reports that Iran plans to implement a tolling system in the strait, a vital waterway for the world’s oil supply.

Rubio used the topic to double down on pressure for countries to participate in securing the Strait of Hormuz, a demand US President Donald Trump has repeatedly made.

“One of the immediate challenges we’re going to face is in Iran, when they decide that they want to set up a tolling system in the Strait of Hormuz,” Rubio said.

“Not only is this illegal, it’s unacceptable. It’s dangerous for the world, and it’s important that the world have a plan to confront it. The United States is prepared to be a part of that plan. We don’t have to lead that plan, but we are happy to be a part of it.”

He called on the G7 members — among them, Japan, Canada, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Germany and the European Union — as well as countries in Asia to “contribute greatly to that effort”.

Rubio calls toll plan ‘unacceptable’

The Strait of Hormuz is a key artery for the global transport of oil and natural gas, and prior to the start of the US and Israel’s war against Iran on February 28, an average of 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the waterway.

That amounted to roughly 20 percent of the world’s liquid petroleum supply.

But since the outbreak of war, Iran has pledged to close the Strait of Hormuz, which borders its shores. The threat of attacks has ground most of the local tanker traffic to a standstill, though a few vessels, some linked to Iran or China, have been allowed to pass through.

Media reports suggest that Iran is setting up a “tollbooth system” that would require passing ships to put in a request through Iran’s armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). There would also be a fee to secure passage.

“ They want to make it permanent. That’s unacceptable. The whole world should be outraged by it,” Rubio said on Friday.

He added that he conveyed a warning about the polling scheme to his colleagues at the G7.

“All we’ve said is, ‘You guys need to do something about it. We’ll help you, but you guys are going to need to be ready to do something about it,’” Rubio said.

“Because when this conflict and when this operation ends, if the Iranians decide, ‘Well, now we control the Strait of Hormuz and you can only go through here if you pay us and if we allow you to, that’s not only is it illegal under international law and maritime law. It’s unacceptable, and that can’t be allowed to exist.”

The Trump administration, however, has struggled to rally allies and world powers to join the US in its offensive against Iran.

Legal experts have criticised the initial strikes against Iran as an unprovoked act of aggression, though the Trump administration has cited a range of rationales for launching the attack, including the prospect that Iran may develop a nuclear weapon.

Many of the US allies in Europe have maintained that they would limit their involvement to defensive actions. Trump, meanwhile, has accused members of the NATO alliance of being “cowards”, adding in a social media post, “We will REMEMBER.”

In a statement following the G7 meeting, member countries reiterated their stance that there should be an “immediate cessation of attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure”.

They also underscored the “absolute necessity to permanently restore safe and toll-free freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz”. But the statement fell short of pledging any resources or aid to the US and Israeli war effort.

Achieving goals ‘without any ground troops’?

It is unclear when the war might end. On Saturday, it reaches its one-month anniversary, having stretched for four weeks.

Rubio on Friday echoed Trump’s assessment that the war was going as planned and that the US was achieving its objectives, including to destroy Iran’s navy, missile stockpiles and uranium enrichment programme.

“ We are ahead of schedule on most of them, and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any,” he said, addressing an oft-raised concern about the prospect of US troops being deployed to Iran.

Rubio also briefly addressed the increasing levels of Israeli settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.

Footage has shown settlers this month torching Palestinian homes and vehicles, as well as assaulting residents.

On March 19, the United Nations estimated that more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank since Israel began its genocidal war in Gaza in October 2023. The international body underscored that a quarter of the victims were youths.

“ Well, we’re concerned about that, and we’ve expressed it. And I think there’s concern in the Israeli government about it, as well,” Rubio responded, adding that it was a “topic we follow very closely”.

He suggested that the Israeli government may take action to stop the violence, though critics argue that Israel has largely turned a blind eye to settler violence.

“Maybe they’re settlers, maybe they’re just street thugs, but they’ve attacked security forces, Israelis, as well. So, I think you’ll see the government going to do something about it,” Rubio said.

Upon taking office for a second term in January 2025, President Trump also moved to cancel sanctions against Israeli settlers accused of grave abuses in the West Bank.

It diversified energy supplies, built LNG terminals and reduced its dependence on Russia.

Europe thought it had learned its lesson after the war in Ukraine.
But today it’s facing another energy shock.

And this time it may be even worse, as the war in Iran disrupts supply through the Strait of Hormuz.

It’s happening when EU gas reserves are unusually low.

That means Europe will be competing with Asia to fill its storage tanks, which might force the price of LNG even higher.

Electricity bills are climbing.

Industry is under pressure.

Governments are stepping in to cushion the blow.

As the United States-Israeli war on Iran enters its fourth week this weekend, pressure on oil and gas markets continues to mount due to severe disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as well as attacks on and around key energy facilities in the Gulf.

In peacetime, 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped from producers in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz – the only route to the open ocean – including 20 million barrels of oil per day.

To bridge the shortage its closure has caused, countries in the Middle East are exploring alternative routes to get energy exports out.

In this explainer, we look at three major pipelines in the Middle East that producers may be pinning their hopes on, and whether they can fill the gap.

What has happened in the Strait of Hormuz?

On March 2 – two days after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran – Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was “closed”. If any vessels tried to pass through, he said, the IRGC and the navy would “set those ships ablaze”. Since then, traffic through the strait has plunged by more than 95 percent.

Iranian officials have most recently stated that the strait is not completely closed – except to ships belonging to the US, Israel and those who collaborate with them – but have also laid down new ground rules. Any vessel must secure Tehran’s approval to transit through the narrow waterway.

As a result, over the past fortnight, countries have been scrambling to do deals with Iran to secure safe passage and a few, mostly Indian, Pakistani and Chinese-flagged tankers have been allowed to pass.

On Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thanked Tehran for granting Malaysian vessels “early clearance” through the strait.

Meanwhile, about 2,000 ships flying the flags of other nations are stuck on either side of the strait.

Which oil pipelines could serve as alternate routes?

The only alternative to shipping oil is piping it across land or under the sea. Three oil pipelines could work as ways around the Strait of Hormuz, including:

Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline

The East-West pipeline is also known as the Petroline and is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. Aramco is one of the world’s largest companies, with a market capitalisation exceeding $1.7 trillion and annual revenues of $480bn. The oil giant controls 12 percent of global oil production, with a capacity of more than 12 million bpd.

It is a 1,200km (745-mile) pipeline which runs from the Abqaiq oil processing centre close to the Gulf in Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, on the other side of the country.

However, the pipeline does not have the capacity to fully make up for the Hormuz closure.

In 2024, about 20 million barrels per day (bpd) passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the United Nations. Crude oil and condensate made up 14 million bpd of this, while petroleum was the remaining 6 million bpd.

The East-West pipeline has the capacity of transporting up to 7 million bpd. On March 10, Aramco said about 5 million bpd could be made available for exports, while the rest could supply local refineries.

Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February, Saudi Arabia has ramped up its oil flow through this pipeline. In January and February, an average of 770,000 bpd flowed through the pipeline, according to data from Kpler, a data and analytics company. By Tuesday this week, this had increased to an average of 2.9 million bpd.

However, using the Saudi pipeline still carries a risk.

The Houthis, an Iran-backed Yemeni armed group whose attacks on ships in the Red Sea caused global shipping chaos during Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, could target the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean beyond.

An unnamed Houthi leader told the Reuters news agency that the Houthis remain ready to attack the Red Sea again in solidarity with Tehran, the agency reported on Thursday.

“We stand fully militarily ready with all options. As for other details having to do with determining zero hour they are left to leadership and we are monitoring and following up with the developments and will know when is the suitable time to move,” the Houthi leader said.

The Bab al-Mandeb is the southern outlet of the Red Sea, situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast.

It is one of the world’s most important routes for global seaborne commodity shipments, particularly crude oil and fuel from the Gulf bound for the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.

The Bab al-Mandeb is 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for inbound and outbound shipments.

Iran could open a new front in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory or its islands, Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim cited an unnamed Iranian military source as saying on Wednesday.

UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline is also called the ADCOP or the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

The 380km pipeline runs from Habshan, an oil and gasfield in the southwestern area of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

The pipeline, which became operational in 2012, has a capacity of about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). It is unclear how much is now being transported through the pipeline.

However, oil exports from Fujairah do appear to have risen in the past month despite the closure of the strait, averaging 1.62 million bpd in March compared with 1.17 million bpd in February, according to Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball, who spoke to Reuters.

Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline

The Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, links Iraq to the Mediterranean coast of Turkiye.

The pipeline, which has the capacity of 1.6 million bpd, currently carries about 200,000bpd.

Iraq is among the top five global producers of oil and is the second largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), exceeding 4 million bpd.

Can these pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz?

No. While these pipelines can take on some of the capacity of Hormuz, their combined capacity is only about 9 million bpd, compared with about 20 million bpd for the strait.

Additionally, these pipelines are land-based and within the range of Iranian missiles and drones, which makes them just as vulnerable to attacks and damage in the ongoing conflict as ships travelling through the strait. Throughout the war, energy infrastructure all over the Gulf has suffered strikes.

Are there other options?

Theoretically, oil can be transported on trucks, but this is costly, slow and inefficient.

A standard truck can carry anywhere between 100 to 700 barrels per day, depending on the number of trips. Hundreds of thousands of barrels would be needed to meet needs, requiring thousands of trucks, which could also be targeted in strikes.

Rescue teams from the Iranian Red Crescent Society have been searching the rubble of residential buildings hit in US-Israeli attacks in Iran, where officials say around 2,000 people have been killed.

Malaysian leader says oil tankers granted clearance by Iran as government introduces measures to conserve fuel.

Iran has allowed Malaysian ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Malaysia’s leader said, amid the global energy crunch driven by the United States and Israel’s war with Tehran.

In a televised address on Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim expressed thanks to Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian for granting Malaysian vessels “early clearance” through the waterway, which has been effectively closed by Tehran.

“We are in the process of securing the release of the Malaysian oil tankers and the workers involved so they can continue their journey home,” Anwar said.

Anwar did not elaborate on how many vessels had cleared the strait, which normally facilitates the transport of about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, or under what conditions the vessels were cleared for safe passage.

The Malaysian government, which has traditionally pursued a policy of non-alignment in international affairs, did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Anwar said that while Malaysia had been affected by the disruption to energy supplies, the Southeast Asian country was in a “much better position” than other nations due to the capacity of the state-run oil and gas company Petronas.

As one of the world’s top suppliers of LNG, Malaysia is a net energy exporter, but the country imports nearly 70 percent of its crude oil from the Gulf region.

Anwar said his government would take a series of measures to conserve fuel, including reducing the individual monthly quota for subsidised petrol and “gradually and selectively” moving civil servants onto work-from-home arrangements.

“Food supplies are affected; prices will certainly rise. Fertiliser as well, and of course, oil and gas,” Anwar said.

“So there are steps we need to take. There are countries whose impacts are far worse than ours, but that does not mean we are spared entirely,” he said.

While Iran has stated that the strait is open to ships that are not aligned with the US or Israel, Tehran has claimed the right to exercise control over the waterway and admitted responsibility for at least two of 20 documented attacks on commercial vessels in the region.

Iran’s parliament is also pushing legislation that would establish a toll system in the strait amid reports that Iranian authorities have been demanding vessels fork over as much as $2m to guarantee their safe passage.

Five ships were tracked transiting the strait via their automatic identification systems on Wednesday, up from four the previous day, according to maritime intelligence company Windward.

Before the war, an average of 120 vessels transited the waterway each day, according to Windward.

EXPLAINER

The US and Israel’s war on Iran is intensifying, as Trump again claims Iranian leaders want to ‘make a deal’.

The United States and Israel’s war on Iran continues, with an Al Jazeera correspondent in Tehran reporting strikes are “increasing in number and in intensity” amid conflicting claims about whether negotiations are taking place.

US President Donald Trump says talks are happening, but Iran rejects the talks, saying it will continue to “resist” US aggression.

On Thursday, Iran carried out retaliatory strikes against Israel and several Gulf countries, as the Middle East conflict sees no signs of ending, and global energy and food prices continue to rise.

In Iran

• Intensifying attacks: US-Israeli attacks on Iran are “increasing in number and in intensity”, according to Al Jazeera correspondent, with Israel announcing extensive strikes on central Isfahan. Alongside US forces, Israel has launched a “wave of extensive strikes” across Iran.
• Civilian casualties reported: Iranian media reported that two teenage boys were killed in a recent US-Israeli strike on a residential area in a village in the county of Shiraz.
• Iran talks: US President Donald Trump insisted that Iran was taking part in peace talks.
• Iran chooses ‘resistance’: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran will continue its “resistance” and does not intend to negotiate.
• US targets missile capacities: The US has hit two-thirds of Iran’s production facilities for missiles and drones, a top officer said.
• Threat to Iranian island: Tehran warned enemies may try to occupy one of its islands with support from an unnamed regional country.
• Iran’s leverage: Jane Foley, an analyst from Rabobank, noted that Tehran’s position on negotiations leaves the ball firmly in their court. Because the critical Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, she suggests Iran could have the power to dictate the terms of any resolution.
• New toll legislation: The Iranian parliament is preparing a draft law that would mandate the collection of tolls and duties from ships and tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, treating the waterway like a standard transit corridor.

In the Gulf

• Hezbollah plot uncovered in Kuwait: Authorities arrested six people allegedly linked to Hezbollah, accused of planning assassinations in the Gulf state, the Interior Ministry said.
• Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry on Thursday morning announced the interception and destruction of a drone in the Eastern Province. Its air defence systems intercepted and destroyed at least two dozen drones targeting the Eastern Province, home to the majority of the kingdom’s oil facilities, on Wednesday.
• Bahrain: A fire broke out at a facility in the Muharraq Governorate due to what the Interior Ministry described as “Iranian aggression”.
• United Arab Emirates: The UAE’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday that its air defence systems have been actively responding to and intercepting incoming missiles and drones from Iran.

In the US

• Trump says Iran wants a deal: Trump again claims Iranian leaders want to “make a deal so badly” but are afraid to say so “because they figure they’ll be killed by their own people”.
• Trump threatens ‘hell’ if no deal: Trump is ready to “unleash hell” on Iran if Tehran does not accept a deal to end the war, the White House warned on Wednesday.
• Strategic posturing: Jason Campbell, a former Pentagon official, said US threats to “hit Iran harder” are more about signalling than intensifying attacks.
• Intentional vagueness: Campbell told Al Jazeera that Trump is deliberately omitting specific details because he wants the Iranian regime to believe the US is fully capable and willing to execute these harsher attacks.

In Israel

• Missile salvoes: Israel’s army on Thursday morning said it had detected a wave of missiles from Iran heading towards the country, the second salvo in less than 30 minutes.
• Rockets and missiles targeting Israel: Iranian missiles continue to target central and northern Israel. Additionally, Hezbollah has fired volleys of rockets into the Western Galilee region.

In Iraq, Lebanon

• Gulf issues Iraq demand: Gulf states and Jordan have urged Iraq to stop attacks by pro-Iran armed groups from its territory.
• Ground clashes with Hezbollah: Israeli troops have crossed the border into Lebanese territory and are actively engaging in ground combat. Hezbollah says its fighters are continuing to clash with invading Israeli troops in south Lebanon.
• Defending Lebanese soil: Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Naim Qassem stated that the group is now in a war against both the US and Israel and will do everything it can to defend Lebanese territory.

Oil markets and food

• Oil prices climb: Oil prices have climbed higher amid fading hopes of de-escalation in the Iran war following Tehran’s rejection that talks with the US are under way.
• Food supply shocks: Antony Currie, a columnist for Breakingviews, warned that the Iran war will likely have a more severe impact on global food security than Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Brent crude tops $104 a barrel as hopes fade for deescalation in US-Israel war on Iran.

Oil prices have climbed higher amid fading hopes of deescalation in the Iran war following Tehran’s denial that talks with the United States are under way.

Futures for Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 2 percent on Thursday to top $104 per barrel after Tehran dismissed reports of direct negotiations with US President Donald Trump’s administration.

The rise comes after oil prices eased on Wednesday following reports that Trump had shared a 15-point plan for ending the war with Iran.

Asian stock markets opened lower on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225, South Korea’s KOSPI and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index all seeing losses.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with state media aired on Wednesday that Tehran was not engaged in direct talks with Washington and has “no intention of negotiating for now”.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned on Wednesday that Iran would be “hit harder” than ever before if Tehran did not accept military defeat.

Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for one-fifth of global oil supplies, and its attacks on energy facilities across the Middle East have prompted a surge in energy prices worldwide.

Oil prices are up more than 40 percent compared with before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, prompting numerous countries to implement fuel rationing and other energy conservation measures.

Market-watchers say prices are likely to rise further until shipping is free to traverse the strait, despite efforts by countries to bolster supply by tapping emergency stockpiles in coordination with the International Energy Agency.

While Tehran has repeatedly claimed that the strait is open to ships that are not aligned with its enemies, daily transits have all but collapsed since the start of the conflict.

Four vessels were tracked transiting the waterway via their automatic identification systems on Tuesday, down from an average of 120 daily transits before the conflict, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.