Jack Beven

Oct. 31 (UPI) — Hurricane Melissa, now a weakened Category 1 storm, was passing north of Bermuda early Friday after battering the Caribbean over the past few days, forecasters said.

Forecasters said Melissa was at its nearest approach to Bermuda, where a hurricane warning was in effect and hurricane-force winds were being felt.

The eye of Melissa was about 150 miles north-northwest of Bermuda, the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 a.m. EDT update.

It had maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, a drop of 15 mph from 8 p.m. Thursday. The storm was moving northeast at 40 mph. Earlier in its life cycle, the storm was largely stationary, moving at about 2 mph as it made its way toward a Jamaican landfall Tuesday.

Forecasts had indicated that the storm would pick up speed as it moved away from the Bahamas. It was forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland on Friday.

Hurricane-force wind gusts were being reported early Friday on Bermuda, as the storm made its closest approach. The outer bands of Melissa could pour an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain over Bermuda through early Friday, while a brief period of heavy rain was considered possible for the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Friday night.

Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday at about 1 p.m. as a powerful Category 5 storm, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. It was the strongest direct hit on Jamaica since records have been kept in the Atlantic basin. It was also the first storm to make landfall in the Caribbean this season.

The storm lost some strength as it traveled over Jamaica’s western mountains, but maintained major hurricane status as it headed for Cuba. It remained a hurricane when it reached the Bahamas.

Melissa is the 13th named storm and fifth hurricane of the season. The other Category 5 storms in the Atlantic this season have been Erin and Humberto.

In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and devastated the Bahamian islands, including the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, as a Category 5 storm.

The all-time highest sustained wind speed recorded in the Atlantic was Hurricane Allen at 190 mph in August 1980 over the Yucatan Peninsula before weakening to a Category 3 when it struck South Texas.

The most destructive Category 5 storm in the United States was Hurricane Andrew in August 1992, causing $27.3 billion in damage. Hurricane Michael, also a Category 5 storm, struck the less-populated Florida Panhandle in October 2018.

Hurricane Gilbert struck Jamaica in 1988 as a Category 3 storm.

Oct. 30 (UPI) — Hurricane Melissa, now a Category 2 storm, was heading toward Bermuda on Thursday evening after battering the Caribbean over the past few days, forecasters said.

Forecasters said Melissa was forecast to pass Bermuda, where a hurricane warning is in effect, on Thursday night.

The eye of Melissa was about 260 miles west-southwest of Bermuda, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. EDT update.

It had maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, and was making its way northeast toward Bermuda at 21 mph. Earlier in its lifecycle, the storm was largely stationary, moving at about 2 mph as it made its way toward a Jamaican landfall Tuesday.

Forecasts indicate the storm would pick up more speed as it moves away from the Bahamas. It was forecast to pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Thursday night and should become a strong extratropical cyclone near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland on Friday.

The outer bands of Melissa could pour an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain over Bermuda through Thursday night, while a brief period of heavy rain was considered possible for the southern Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Friday night.

Melissa made landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday at about 1 p.m. as a powerful Category 5 storm, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. It was the strongest direct hit on Jamaica since records have been kept in the Atlantic basin. It was also the first storm to make landfall in the Caribbean this season.

The storm lost some strength as it traveled over Jamaica’s western mountains, but maintained major hurricane status as it headed for Cuba. It remained a hurricane when it reached the Bahamas.

Melissa is the 13th named storm and fifth hurricane of the season. The other Category 5 storms in the Atlantic this season have been Erin and Humberto.

In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and devastated the Bahamian islands, including the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, as a Category 5 storm.

The all-time highest sustained wind speed recorded in the Atlantic was Hurricane Allen at 190 mph in August 1980 over the Yucatan Peninsula before weakening to a Category 3 when it struck South Texas.

The most destructive Category 5 storm in the United States was Hurricane Andrew in August 1992, causing $27.3 billion in damage. Hurricane Michael, also a Category 5 storm, struck the less populated Florida Panhandle in October 2018.

Hurricane Gilbert struck Jamaica in 1988 as a Category 3 storm.

Oct. 28 (UPI) — Hurricane Melissa was regaining strength Tuesday night as it was taking aim at Cuba after battering Jamaica throughout the day, forecasters said.

The eye of Melissa was situated about 110 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, and 300 miles south of the central Bahamas, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 p.m. EDT update. It was moving northeast at 9 mph.

Melissa had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph, making it a Category 4 storm, and significantly weaker than the Category 5 storm when it hit Jamaica.

It had lost strength as it traveled over Jamaica’s western mountains, but forecasters said it appeared to be strengthening.

Melissa made landfall as a powerful major hurricane, the strongest direct hit on Jamaica since records have been kept in the Atlantic basin. It was also be the first storm to make landfall in the Caribbean this season.

Melissa is anticipated to make a second landfall along Cuba’s southeastern coast soon, while still maintaining major hurricane strength. It’s also expected to remain a hurricane when it reaches the Bahamas. Bermuda also could be threatened.

“Melissa is expected to continue to strengthen until it reaches Cuba in a few hours, and it is expected to make landfall there as a very dangerous major hurricane,” NHC forecaster John Cangialosi said in a late Tuesday discussion on the storm.

“Melissa is still expected to be a powerful hurricane when it moves through the Bahamas and near Bermuda.”

Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica were expected through early next week.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin; and the southeastern and central Bahamas.

A hurricane watch was in effect for Bermuda.

There was a tropical storm warning for Jamaica, Haiti, Turks and Caicos Islands and the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

Hurricane-force winds extended up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward to 195 miles.

Rainfall of 15 to 30 inches through Wednesday was forecast for portions of Jamaica and an additional 6 to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Jamaica is to get a local maximum of 40 inches, the NHC said.

“Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely,” the NHC said.

Cuba is expected to receive rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts up to 25 inches, into Wednesday, “resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides,” the NHC said.

Over the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall is forecast to total 5 to 10 inches into Wednesday with flash flooding in some areas.

Life-threatening storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall and are expected to be accompanied by large and destructive waves, NHC said.

Along the Cuban coast late Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a potential for a significant storm surge of 7 to 11 feet.

And in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, there is the possibility of a storm surge of 4 to 6 feet.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season and fifth hurricane. The other Category 5 storms in the Atlantic have been Erin and Humberto.

In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and devastated the Bahamas islands, including Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, as a Category 5 storm.

The all-time highest sustained wind speed was Hurricane Allen at 190 mph in August 1980 over the Yucatan Peninsula before weakening to a Category 3 when it struck South Texas.

The most destructive Category 5 storm in the United States was Hurricane Andrew in August 1992, with $27.3 billion in damage. Hurricane Michael, also a Category 5 storm, struck the less populated Florida Panhandle in October 2018.

The United States is not threatened this time.

Hurricane Gilbert struck Jamaica in 1988 as a Category 3 storm.

Oct. 27 (UPI) — Melissa, a strong Category 5 hurricane, neared landfall on the Caribbean island nation of Jamaica early Tuesday, where three people were already dead and amid fears of a humanitarian crisis.

The Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas were to be later threatened with powerful winds, rainfall and storm surge.

The storm was expected to move near or over Jamaica’s southern coast Tuesday — the first hurricane to make landfall in the Caribbean this season.

The island, which has 2.8 million residents, was already experiencing damaging winds and heavy rainfall, threatening catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. The Ministry of Health and Wellness has reported three deaths and nearly 15 people injured while preparing for the storm.

The hurricane was situated about 115 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 290 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 a.m. EDT update. It was moving north-northeast at 5 mph.

Melissa’s maximum sustained winds of 175 mph have not changed since the 2 p.m. update on Monday. Hurricanes are designated as the highest class when they reach 157 mph.

When Melissa makes landfall as a powerful major hurricane, it will be the strongest direct hit for the island since records have been kept in the Atlantic Basin.

“Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday,” NHC forecaster Richard Pasch said in a late Monday discussion about Jamaica. “The eyewall’s destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged power and communication outages and isolated communities.”

The storm became a hurricane Saturday morning and was upgraded to a Category 3 major hurricane by Saturday night, then a Category 4 on Sunday morning and a Category 5 on Monday morning.

On Tuesday night or Wednesday, Melissa is anticipated to make a second landfall along Cuba’s southeastern coast, while still wielding major hurricane strength. It’s also expected to remain a hurricane when it reaches the Bahamas. Bermuda also could be threatened.

“After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear should cause some weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba,” NHC forecaster Jack Beven said in an earlier discussion.

“Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast period as it interacts with a large baroclinic low over the north Atlantic.”

Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica were expected through early next week.

A hurricane warning was in effect for all of Jamaica; the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin; and the southeastern and central Bahamas.

Hurricane watches were in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands.

There was a tropical storm warning for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extended up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical-force winds tended outward to 195 miles.

Rainfall of 15 to 30 inches through Wednesday was forecast for portions of Jamaica and an additional 6 to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, with a local maximum of 40 inches, the NHC said.

“Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely,” NHC said.

Cuba is expected to receive rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts up to 25 inches, into Wednesday, “resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides,” NHC said.

Over the southeastern Bahamas, rainfall is forecast to total 5 to 10 inches into Wednesday with flash flooding in some areas.

Life-threatening storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall and are expected to be accompanied by large and destructive waves, NHC said.

Along the Cuban coast late Tuesday and Wednesday, there is a potential for significant storm surge of 7 to 11 feet.

And in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands, there is the possibility of storm surge of 4 to 6 feet.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season and fifth hurricane. The other Category 5 storms in the Atlantic have been Erin and Humberto.

In September 2019, Hurricane Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 185 mph and destroyed the Bahamas islands, including Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama, as a Category 5 storm.

The all-time highest sustained measure was Hurricane Allen at 190 mph in August 1980 over the Yucatan Peninsula but weakened to a Category 3 when it struck south Texas.

The most destructive Category 5 storm in the United States was Hurricane Andrew in August 1992, with $27.3 billion in damage. Hurricane Michael, also a Category 5 storm, struck the less populated Florida Panhandle in October 2018.

The U.S. is not threatened this time.

Hurricane Gilbert struck Jamaica in 1988 as a Category 3 storm. The island could be battered for several hours as the eyewall moves slowly.

Oct. 27 (UPI) — Forecasters are warning residents of Jamaica to “seek shelter now,” as Melissa, a Category 4 hurricane, was making its way toward the Caribbean island nation early Monday.

The storm was expected to make landfall along Jamaica’s southern coast on Tuesday morning, but the National Hurricane Center reported that the island is already experiencing damaging winds and heavy rainfall that will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides.

The hurricane, a Category 4 storm, was located about 130 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 315 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 p.m. EDT update.

It had maximum sustained winds of 150 mph and was crawling west at 5 mph.

Forecasters said it was to take a slow westward turn overnight, followed by a north and northeastern turn on Monday and Tuesday.

“On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba [on] Tuesday night and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday,” the NHC said.

The storm — which became a hurricane Saturday morning and was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday night — continues to gather strength.

Additional intensification of the storm is forecast over the next day or two, after which strengthening is expected to fluctuate.

However, the NHC expects it to be “a powerful major hurricane” when it makes landfall along Jamaica’s southern coast. This would be the strongest direct landfall for the island since records have been kept in the Atlantic Basin.

Either Tuesday night or Wednesday, Melissa is anticipated to make landfall along Cuba’s southeastern coast.

Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in parts of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica are expected through early next week.

A hurricane warning is in effect for all of Jamaica and for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Hurricane watches are in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.

“Seek shelter now,” is the key message the NHC has for Jamaica.

“Damaging winds and heavy rainfall tonight and Monday will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides before potentially devastating winds arrive Monday night and Tuesday morning,” NHC forecaster Philippe Papin said in a discussion on the storm.

“Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages and isolation of communities are expected.”

Accuweather meteorologist Alex Duffus warned that entire communities could be cut off from aid and support for several days.

“Melissa’s slow movement over the mountainous islands greatly increases the risk of catastrophic flash flooding and deadly mudslides,” Duffus said. “This can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, where a large number of people are in need of basic supplies such as food, safe drinking water, housing and medical care.”

Rainfall of 15 to 30 inches through Wednesday is forecast for portions of southern Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, with a local maximum of 40 inches, the NHC said.

Eastern Cuba is expected to receive rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts up to 18 inches into Wednesday.

“Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week,” the NHC said.

Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall and are expected to be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There also is a potential of significant storm surge along the Cuban coast next week.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season, and it’s the first in the Caribbean.

This season has seen few storms, resulting in unusually warm Caribbean waters, and the warm water is potential fuel for stronger and more dangerous storms.

Oct. 24 (UPI) — Melissa was upgraded to a Category 4 hurricane as it made its way toward Jamaica, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday.

It is expected to strengthen to a Category 5 storm, causing catastrophic conditions for Caribbean nations.

The hurricane became a Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph while moving west at 5 mph and positioned about 110 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 285 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, the National Hurricane Center reported in its 2 p.m. EDT update.

The storm had become a hurricane at 9 a.m. EDT on Saturday and was upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday night.

It continues to gain strength and could cause life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides in parts of Southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into early next week.

Currently, a hurricane warning is in effect for all of Jamaica.

Hurricane watch advisories are also in effect for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince and for the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

Accuweather Meteorologist Alex Duffus warned that entire communities could be cut off from aid and support for several days.

“Melissa’s slow movement over the mountainous islands greatly increases the risk of catastrophic flash flooding and deadly mudslides,” Duffus said. “This can quickly escalate into a humanitarian crisis, where a large number of people are in need of basic supplies such as food, safe drinking water, housing and medical care.”

A hurricane warning is in effect in Jamaica, while a hurricane watch is in effect for the southwestern tip of Haiti and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo and Holguin.

A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.

“This remains a very serious situation, in terms of catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica, and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area currently under a Hurricane Warning,” NHC forecaster Jack Beven said in a discussion.

On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through into early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week and then head northwest in the Atlantic farther from the United States.

“It must be noted that there is very little practical difference in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when it moves over Jamaica,” Beven wrote in a discussion.

“Melissa should weaken as it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba, although it is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it nears Cuba. A faster weakening should occur after passing Cuba when the cyclone encounters strong shear over the southwestern Atlantic,” he wrote.

This would be the strongest direct landfall for the island since tropical cyclone record-keeping has been kept in the Atlantic Basin.

Tropical-force winds stretch outward to 115 mph from the center.

Rainfall of 15 to 30 inches through Wednesday is forecast for portions of southern Hispaniola, which includes Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, with a local maximum of 40 inches, the NHC said.

Eastern Cuba is expected to receive rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts up to 18 inches into Wednesday.

“Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week,” the NHC said.

Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall and be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

There also is a potential for significant storm surge along the Cuban coast next week.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season, and it’s the first in the Caribbean.

This season has seen few storms, which have warmed the Caribbean Sea, and the warm water is potential fuel for stronger and more dangerous storms.

Oct. 24 (UPI) — Melissa intensified into near-hurricane strength and is forecast to rapidly increase this weekend into a possible Category 5 storm with life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and landslides through portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica.

Melissa rose to maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and was moving east-southeast at 1 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. EDT update. Melisa would be designated as a hurricane with winds of at least 74 mph

Melissa was about 155 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 235 miles southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

“The exceptionally warm waters, reaching hundreds of feet deep, will act like jet fuel – providing extra energy for Melissa,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said about Melissa. “The warmest water in the Atlantic basin is in the central Caribbean, in the direct path of this storm. Rapid intensification into a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question this weekend.”

A hurricane warning was in effect for Jamaica and a hurricane watch for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince.

“Melissa is still expected to make landfall in Jamaica as an upper-end Category 4 hurricane, which could be the strongest direct landfall for the island in since tropical cyclone record keeping has been made in the Atlantic Basin,” NHC forecaster Philippe said in a discussion.

A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday.

Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane later Saturday and a major hurricane by Sunday.

On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week.

“Unfortunately, a large majority of the latest reliable track models show Melissa making landfall on Jamaica in about 72 hours,” NHC forecaster Robbie Berg said. “What’s most concerning here is that the island is likely to experience a couple of days of heavy rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds before the core — and strongest winds — even reach the coast.”

Berg said major hurricane strength is likely when it reaches eastern Cuba “but increased shear should lead to weakening below major hurricane strength by day 5.”

Tropical-force winds stretch outward to 115 mph from the center.

Rainfall of 15 to 25 inches through Sunday is forecast to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Tuesday with local maximum 35 inches possible across the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, the NHC said.

Eastern Cuba is expected to receive rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts up to 12 into Tuesday.

Additional rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday in all the areas, NHC said.

Minor coastal flooding is likely along the south coast of Jamaica later in the weekend or early next week, NHC said. Peak storm surge could reach 5 to 10 feet above ground level near and to the east of where Melissa makes landfall, NHC said.

“This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves,” NHC said.

Swells are also expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica and eastern Cuba during the next several days.

Melissa is the 13th named storm of the season, and it’s the first in the Caribbean.

This season has seen few storms, which have warmed the Caribbean Sea, and the warm water is potential fuel for stronger and more dangerous storms.

Aug. 16 (UPI) — Hurricane Erin is now a Category 5 storm, the highest on the class, rapidly intensifying overnight into early Saturday morning as it threatens the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, then will move along the U.S. East Coast.

In an update at 11:20 a.m. EDT, the National Hurricane Center reported an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, which passes the 157 mph minimum for Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

In the NHC’s 2:00pm update, Erin remained a Category 5 storm with 160 mph after rapidly intensifying from a 75 mph-Category 1 storm on Friday morning to a 155 mph-Category 4 at the 11 a.m. advisory on Saturday morning.

The storm was located approximately 110 miles north of Anguilla and about 205 miles east-northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and was traveling west at 16 mph.

The northern Leeward Islands include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat.

A tropical storm watch remains for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-force outward to 140 miles.

The storm is expected to skirt the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico on Sunday rather than hit them directly, which could bring strong winds and up to 6 inches of rain through the day Saturday.

“Locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, are possible,” NHC said, in addition to the possibility of swells.

“Swells generated by Erin will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through the weekend,” the weather service said in its latest update. “These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the East Coast of the United States early next week.

“These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.”

Forecasters are predicting the storm will make a west-northwest turn Saturday evening, which will come with a “decrease in forward speed,” ahead of an expected northerly early next week.

By Wednesday night, the storm was forecast to be a few hundred miles west of Bermuda and just outside the big tracking cone. Erin then is forecast to travel north hundreds of miles from the East Coast.

Forecasters predict the storm has the potential to affect the U.S. East Coast, including Florida, as well as the Bahamas and Bermuda, next week.

“Erin is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the East Coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada next week,” NHC forecaster Jack Beven said in a discussion.

Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic storm season Friday. Forecasters had been expecting the storm to intensify into a hurricane since early in the week.

There have been four prior Atlantic named storms so far this season. Tropical Storm Chantal caused major flooding in North Carolina but was the only of the four to make landfall in the United States.

The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30. The peak hurricane season goes from mid-August through September and into mid-October. Ninety-three percent of hurricane landfalls along the U.S. Gulf Coast and the East Coast have occurred from August through October, the Weather Channel reported in citing data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Last year at this time, there also had been five named storms.

Aug. 15 (UPI) — Erin became the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season on Friday morning and is forecast to rapidly strengthen as it heads near the Leeward Islands, and later Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

In its 10 a.m. EDT update, the National Hurricane Center said Erin became a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph — just 2 mph above the tropical storm designation.

In the 7 p.m. update, Erin increased to 85 mph.

Erin was 310 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands, and was moving west-northwest at 17 mph in warm waters.

The NHC said the motion is expected to continue through the weekend with some decrease in forward speed.

With rapid strengthening the next two to three days, Eric is forecast to become a major hurricane during the weekend with winds at least 111 mph.

On the forecast track, Erin is likely to go just north of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Erin is forecast to reach Category 4 at 130 mph on Monday, the NHC said.

By 2 p.m., Wednesday, the storm was forecast to be a few hundred miles west of Bermuda and outside the big tracking cone.

“While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the East coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along western Atlantic beaches next week,” NHC forecaster Jack Beven wrote in a discussion.

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for Anguilla St. Martin and St. Barthelemy, Saba and St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

Hurricane-force winds extend up to 75 miles from the center, and tropical-force winds outward to 115 miles.

Marine warnings are in effect for the Atlantic, Caribbean and southwest Atlantic and the southwest North Atlantic.

The NHC said Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands — which include Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, St. Martin, St. Barts, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat — should expect heavy rainfall Friday night through Sunday. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast with isolated totals of 6 inches. It could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with landslides and mudslides.

Swells will begin affecting this area and will spread to the western Atlantic next week.

Wind gusts or tropical storm-force winds are possible in rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend.

“Do not underestimate the power of a major hurricane even passing by offshore,” Alex DaSilva, the lead hurricane expert with AccuWeather, said. “These massive storms produce very rough surf and lethal rip currents that can impact beaches even hundreds of miles away.”

The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina.

Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane.

Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.

Aug. 13 (UPI) — Tropical Storm Erin is slightly intensifying and forecast to become a hurricane on Friday morning over the central tropical Atlantic with a chance of ultimately affecting the U.S. East Coast, the Bahamas and Bermuda next week, the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday.

For the first time since Erin became a tropical storm Monday morning, intensity increased, though just 5 mph, to maximum sustained winds of 45 mph, with gradual strengthening during the next two days forecast, the NHC said in its 5 p.m. EDT update.

In the 11 p.m. update, Erin remained at 50 mph.

Erin is forecast to reach hurricane status by 8 a.m. Friday with winds at least 74 mph, and a major hurricane, with winds of at least 111 mph, by 8 p.m. Sunday.

It would be the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Beryl was the first hurricane last year on June 24.

The storm is about 1,095 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands.

Erin was moving westward at 16 mph and will shift to a north-westward track beginning Thursday night and into the weekend, the NHC said. On the forecast track, the storm’s center will move over or near just north of the northern Leeward Islands.

The NHC’s “cone” doesn’t track Erin past Monday night, and NHC forecasters remind that they have an average error of 150 to 214 miles at days four and five.

In the latest discussion, NHC forecaster Jack Beven said there is a “greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda.”

But he said: “The risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing.”

By this weekend, swells are forecast to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, the NHC said.

Alex Sosnowsky, an AccuWeather senior forecaster, said there is concern that residents, visitors, cruise lines, and shipping and fishing ventures “could pass paths with a powerful hurricane.”

With a track farther to the east, Bermuda could be directly in the path as a major hurricane.

He said a farther west scenario would mean a greater risk of strong winds, rain and coastal flooding in the U.S., including eastern North Carolina, Long Island, New York and southeastern New England.

“Families heading to U.S. Atlantic beaches for a late-summer vacation next week need to be extremely cautious when venturing into the surf,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “More than 50 people have lost their lives to rip currents and rough surf at beaches across the country so far this year, without any major hurricane nearby.”

There are no warnings or coastal watches in effect as tropical-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles. But those in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico should monitor Erin’s progress.

The previous four named Atlantic storms this year were Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter. None of them became hurricanes, and Chantal was the only one to make landfall in the United States, causing significant flooding in North Carolina.

Helene struck that state last year as a tropical storm, causing an estimated $53 billion in damage, after hitting western Florida as a Category 4 hurricane.

Four other hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2024: Beryl, Debby, Francine and Milton.

June 19 (UPI) — Hurricane Erick made landfall in southern Mexico with powerful winds Thursday morning, but has been downgraded to a tropical storm and is expected to dissipate during the overnight hours.

The National Hurricane Center on Thursday afternoon reported Erick had moved over the Mexican state of Guerrero along the country’s Pacific coast, about 35 miles north-northeast of Acapulco.

A tropical storm warning is in effect from Punta Maldonado to Tecpan de Galeana, with sustained winds of around 50 mph and flooding rains.

The storm system is moving northwesterly at about 12 mph, according to the NHC.

“This general motion is expected to continue through tonight,” NHC forecasters said. “The center of Erick is forecast to move over southern and southwestern Mexico until it dissipates tonight.”

Tropical-storm-force winds will extend up to 45 miles outward from the eye of the storm for a few more hours before dissipating.

Erick is expected to drop 6 to 8 more inches of rain across Guerrero and Oaxaca, but totals could reach as high as 16 inches.

The storm could also produce dangerous flooding and mudslides, particularly in steeper areas.

Up to 6 inches of rain may also fall across the states of Colima, Jalisco and Michoacan.

The storm surge is considered likely to produce coastal flooding along portions of southern Mexico, but is expected to gradually subside through the night.

Swells generated by the tropical storm will continue to affect coastal areas along southern Mexico.

“These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions,” NHC forecasters said.

Erick neared landfall along the western coast of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane earlier Thursday, with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. It had first become a hurricane on Wednesday morning.

Erick is the fifth named storm in the Pacific this year. No storms have formed in the Atlantic yet.

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season runs from May 15 to Nov. 30, while the Atlantic season is from June 1 to Nov. 30.