Ivory Coast

Country awaits final presidential election result that could see 83-year-old Alassane Ouattara sworn in for fourth term.

Former Ivory Coast commerce minister Jean-Louis Billon has conceded defeat to incumbent Alassane Ouattara in the country’s presidential election, as early partial results show the latter with a strong lead nationwide.

“The initial results place the incumbent President, Mr Alassane Ouattara, in the lead, designating him the winner of this presidential election,” Billon said in a statement, congratulating the president on Sunday.

Billon was among four opposition candidates running against Ouattara, the 83-year-old former International Monetary Fund executive who is seeking a fourth term in office.

Billon failed to secure the endorsement of the opposition PDCI party, led by Tidjane Thiam – the ex-Credit Suisse chief who was barred from the ballot.

Earlier in the day, the country’s Independent Electoral Commission began announcing partial results from Saturday’s polls on national television.

“The results of 20 departments or divisions are being read out,” and 10 or 11 departments remain, Al Jazeera’s Ahmed Idris said, reporting from the economic capital, Abidjan on Sunday. This included diaspora votes from six countries.

“This is the most critical stage of this election, where results from various polling booths and centres are being collated and announced,” Idris said.

“From the initial results, it’s clear the incumbent is leading by a wide margin in many of the areas so far.”

Nearly nine million Ivorians were eligible to vote in an election marked by a divided opposition further hobbled by the barring of two leading candidates.

“Ivorians are watching closely what happens here,” said Idris. “And the result of this election will determine whether or not the streets will remain calm.”

So far, the streets of Abidjan have remained quiet and calm, Idris reported, “apart from reports of scattered violence in other parts of the country that has led to two deaths”.

“Security patrols are all over the place; at least 44,000 security personnel have been deployed for this election before, during, and after, in case trouble breaks out,” he added.

Ouattara’s leading rivals – former President Laurent Gbagbo and Thiam – were barred from standing, Gbagbo for a criminal conviction and Thiam for acquiring French citizenship.

This led to pre-election protests and calls from some quarters for a boycott of the polls.

While an official voter turnout is not yet known, the president of the election commission, Ibrahime Coulibaly-Kuibiert, earlier put the figure at about 50 percent.

Polling stations in Abidjan and historically pro-opposition areas in the south and west were nearly empty, the AFP news agency reported. Meanwhile, it said voters turned out in large numbers in the north, where Ouattara had most of his support.

With key contenders out of the race, Ouattara was the overwhelming favourite.

Saturday’s vote was reminiscent of the last election in 2020, in which he obtained 94 percent of the ballots with a turnout slightly above 50 percent in an election then boycotted by the main opposition.

None of the four candidates who faced Ouattara represented a major party or had the reach of the ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace.

Polls open in the West African nation in a heated election set to deliver a fourth term to 83-year-old Alassane Ouattara.

Voters in the Ivory Coast are casting ballots for president with incumbent Alassane Ouattara the overwhelming favourite as he runs for a fourth term.

Nearly nine million Ivorians will vote on Saturday from 8am to 6pm (08:00 to 18:00 GMT), choosing from a field of five contenders.

Opposition heavyweights, however, aren’t running for the post. Former President Laurent Gbagbo and former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam have been barred from standing, the former for a criminal conviction and the latter for acquiring French citizenship.

Critics said the exclusion of key candidates has given Ouattara, 83, an unfair advantage and essentially cleared the way for his fourth term.

None of his four rivals represents an established party nor do they have the reach of the ruling Rally of Houphouetistes for Democracy and Peace (RHDP).

Agribusinessman and former Trade Minister Jean-Louis Billon, 60, hopes to rally backers from his former party, the Democratic Party, while former first lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, 76, is looking to garner votes from supporters of her ex-husband.

The left-wing vote hangs in the balance between Gbagbo and Ahoua Don Mello, a civil engineer and independent Pan-African with Russian sympathies. Henriette Lagou Adjoua, one of the first two women to run for the presidency during the 2015 election, is representing a centrist coalition, the Group of Political Partners for Peace.

At the Riviera Golf 1 Primary School in the Ivory Coast’s economic capital, Abidjan, where Gbagbo is expected to cast her vote, the atmosphere appeared calm as the first voters began to queue in the early hours of Saturday.

“This vote means a lot to us,” Konate Adama told Al Jazeera. “We need a candidate to emerge from these elections. It will lead us towards peace, wisdom and tranquillity.”

Turnout will be key as the opposition continues to call for a boycott. About 8.7 million people aged above 18 are eligible to vote in a country of 33 million with a median age of 18.3.

To win, a candidate must take an absolute majority of the votes. A second round will take place if no one clears that hurdle.

Controversial fourth term

Results are expected early next week, and observers forecast Ouattara to win the more than 50 percent needed to secure victory in the first round.

The octogenarian has wielded power in the world’s top cocoa producer since 2011 when the country began reasserting itself as a West African economic powerhouse.

Under the constitution, presidents may serve a maximum of two terms. Ouattara argues a major constitutional change implemented in 2016 “reset” his limit.

The decision has angered his detractors. Opposition and civil society groups also complain of restrictions on Ouattara’s critics and a climate of fear.

About 44,000 security forces were deployed across the country to keep protests in check, especially in opposition strongholds in the south and west. A night-time curfew was in place on Friday and Saturday in the region where the political capital, Yamoussoukro, is located.

Authorities said they want to avoid “chaos” and a repeat of unrest surrounding the 2020 presidential election. According to official figures, 85 people died then while the opposition said there were more than 200 deaths.

Opposition parties have encouraged Ivorians to protest against Ouattara’s predicted fourth term. On Monday, an Independent Electoral Commission building was torched.

The government has responded by banning demonstrations, and the judiciary has sentenced several dozen people to three years in prison for disturbing the peace.

In 2010, the country was plunged into a conflict that killed at least 3,000 people after the presidential election between Gbagbo and Ouattara.

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Alassane Ouattara, 83, announced the plan after changing the constitution to remove presidential term limits.

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara has announced he will seek a fourth term leading the West African nation, as tensions rise over the exclusion of many heavyweight opposition candidates.

Earlier, he had been officially nominated by his ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) party as its candidate, but had not yet said if he would contest the October 25 election.

With the country’s most high-profile opposition politicians ruled ineligible, Ouattara is the clear frontrunner.

The 83-year-old president, who has led the country since 2011, declared his plan in a televised announcement on Tuesday.

“For several months, I have received numerous calls from fellow citizens regarding my potential candidacy in the presidential election,” he said.

Referring to the country by its name in French, he went on: “Women and young people from all regions of Cote d’Ivoire, and countless anonymous voices from our neighbourhoods, towns, and villages have reached out.

“In response to those appeals, I announced on June 22 that, as president of all Ivorians, I would, after careful reflection, make a decision guided solely by the best interest of the nation.”

Ouattara won a third term in 2020 after the constitution was changed to reset the presidential term limit. He had said he was not going to run again, but he changed his position following the death of his hand-picked successor, Prime Minister Amadou Gon Coulibaly.

Opposition campaign

Critics of Ouattara accuse him of tightening his grip on power and strongly oppose his running again.

The opposition has accused the authorities of targeting their opponents by legal means, but the government insists the judiciary acts independently.

The two main opposition parties have launched a joint campaign to demand the reinstatement of their barred leaders ahead of the presidential election.

This alliance brings together the African People’s Party of Ivory Coast (PPA-CI) – led by former president Laurent Gbagbo – and the Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI), the country’s largest opposition force, headed by former international banker Tidjane Thiam.

Gbagbo, his former right-hand man Charles Ble Goude and ex-Prime Minister Guillaume Soro have been struck from the electoral register due to criminal convictions.

Ouattara’s most prominent rival, Thiam, was barred from running by a court on the grounds that he was still a French citizen at the time he declared his candidacy, even though he later renounced his French nationality. Ivorian law bans dual nationals from running for president.

Some previous elections in the Ivory Coast have been fraught with tension and violence. When Ouattara announced his third-term bid, several people were killed in the ensuing violence. There have been protests against the court’s decision to bar Thiam from contesting the election.

Ouattara is the latest among a growing number of leaders in West Africa who remain in power after changing the constitutional term limit.

Coup leaders in the region have used alleged corruption within democratic governments and electoral changes as a pretext to seize power, leading to a split in the regional bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

Despite a heavy downpour and slippery roads, supporters of presidential candidate Tidjane Thiam poured into Abidjan’s streets in the thousands on Saturday to march on the offices of the Ivory Coast electoral commission.

Decked in the white and green colours of Thiam’s main opposition Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI), the demonstrators chanted his nickname – “Thithi president!” – in a show of support for a candidate now officially barred from the vote. Placards reading “There’s no Plan B!” flew high amid protest songs.

“We strongly denounce the arbitrary and unjustified removal of President Thiam, as well as other major opposition leaders,” PDCI’s executive secretary, Sylvestre Emmou, one of few people allowed through a large police barricade to submit a complaint to the commission, told his soaked compatriots. “This is unacceptable and dangerous for peace and democracy in our country,” he said.

The protests highlight rising tensions in West Africa’s second-biggest economy, ahead of the October general elections that many fear could lead to violence in a country with still-fresh memories of the 2011 election-related civil war.

At stake is Ivory Coast’s continued stability amid a regional security crisis, but a likely fourth-term bid by incumbent President Alassane Ouattara has concerned many voters and political rivals, alongside what critics say is the government’s targeted ban on opponents.

Ouattara’s strongest challenger, Thiam, was struck from a final list of candidates on June 4 after the electoral commission said he was ineligible to run because he’d automatically lost Ivorian citizenship when he took French citizenship in the 1980s.

Although Thiam gave up his French nationality to regain his Ivorian one in February, a court ruled in May that he was not technically Ivorian when he enrolled in the electoral register in 2022.

Thiam’s supporters accuse Ouattara, who has led since 2011, of clearing the way for a fourth term. The last elections in 2020 were boycotted by the opposition, which argued Ouattara had reached his term limits, handing him an easy victory. In the 2015 elections, Ouattara was a clear favourite.

Former President Laurent Gbagbo and his old right-hand man Charles Ble Goude have been struck off too for convictions related to the 2011 civil war. Ex-Prime Minister Guillaume Soro, who was convicted of fraud, was also removed.

Ouattara will suffer illegitimacy if he runs without those four, Sylvain N’Guessan, a politics professor at the University of Bondoukou, told Al Jazeera.

“He will be seen as a candidate who had to exclude all other serious candidates to impose himself. What relationship will such a president have with the other parties, with the voters?” he said.

A ‘new face’ in turbulent politics

Many Ivorians, particularly young voters, view businessman Thiam as a breath of fresh air and a departure from the divisive establishment politics that have seen power concentrated in the hands of a few.

At 62, he is two decades younger than Ouattara and is related to Felix Houphouet-Boigny, the first Ivorian prime minister. Thiam was the first Ivorian student to land a place at Paris’s prestigious Ecole Polytechnique in 1982, from where he was launched to top-flight firms like consulting giant McKinsey. In 1994, he returned home to take up a ministerial position that saw him launch several infrastructure projects. A military coup in 1999, however, cut short that career.

In 2015, he became the first African head of Swiss bank Credit Suisse but stepped down in 2019 after an espionage scandal: a colleague accused Thiam of spying on him, although a court later cleared him of wrongdoing. In 2022, Thiam returned to the Ivory Coast and the once-ruling PDCI party.

Thiam’s party promises a return to the economic development that flourished under Houphouet-Boigny, who is credited with the “Ivorian Miracle” or the rapid development that came after colonial rule.

Thiam has also promised to include everyone, regardless of ethnicity or religion.

“He presents as a new leader, a new face who could lead Cote d’Ivoire differently,” N’Guessan said, adding that young Ivorians were tired of faces like Ouattara’s and Gbagbo’s, who are associated with turbulent politics.

Critics say his international career means he’s out of touch locally, but Thiam claims he is nonetheless well-loved. In an interview with the BBC in April, he accused the government of specifically targeting him with a colonial-era law he said was rarely used. Thiam pointed to Ivorian-French footballers who hold dual nationalities and play for French clubs and the Ivorian national team.

“I don’t think anyone in Cote d’Ivoire believes that this is not a case of the government exploiting the legal system,” he said, referring to his removal based on nationality. “This government has been in power for 15 years. Does it deserve five more? For me, that’s what should be at the centre of the presidential campaign, not my passport,” Thiam said at the time.

Al Jazeera reached out to the Ivorian government for comment but did not hear back by the time of publication.

Away from identity politics

A day after Thiam’s supporters gathered in Abidjan, Ouattara’s ruling Rally of Houphouetists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) members also rallied in Yopougon, the most populous suburb of Abidjan.

Banners reading “In Yopougon, our champion is ADO”, a reference to the president’s nickname, were stretched across a stage where senior party members extolled Ouattara. The gathering set the stage for the party’s grand congress on June 21-22, where Ouattara is expected to officially announce his candidacy.

“There is only one road – the road of President Alassane Ouattara,” former prime minister Patrick Achi declared to the gathered crowd.

Ouattara, 83, is rumoured to be half-Burkinabe. He was the target of inflammatory identity politics for years, with his rivals questioning his “Ivoirite” and enforcing laws that disqualified him from running. When he finally won elections in 2011, Gbagbo refused to hand over power, resulting in a civil war that killed some 3,000 people.

Ouattara has since amended the Ivorian constitution to allow presidential candidates with at least one Ivorian parent in a 2016 referendum. He has nurtured the country back from the brink into a flourishing economy, evident in the 7 percent average yearly growth recorded in the past decade.

Then in 2020, Outtara ran in and won elections. Critics and boycotting opposition said his third-term bid was unconstitutional while Outtara argued his mandate was reset by the new constitution. Violence was reported in some areas.

N’Guessan said Ivorians don’t have the appetite for the immense suffering of 2011, and warned that reviving identity politics by preventing Thiam from running once again is “dangerous”.

“We should learn the lessons to address the issue of nationality with a little more perspective,” he said. “The same words produce the same effects, the same evils.”