imports

The Ukraine war has increased Europe’s dependence on arms imports in the past five years, but it may also have helped to turn Europe into a rising arms manufacturer and exporter, new research suggests.

Imports of major arms by European states more than tripled during 2021-25, when the Ukraine war has raged, compared with the previous five-year period of 2016-20, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in its annual Arms Transfers report released on Monday.

Almost half of those weapons – 48 percent – came from the United States, suggesting that Europe is failing in a commonly shared ambition of becoming more weapons-autonomous.

Poland and the United Kingdom are Europe’s biggest importers of weapons, said SIPRI.

Europe’s growing market

However, there are caveats to that picture.

“Ukrainian arms imports over the last five years made 43 percent of the overall increase in European imports,” said Katarina Djokic, a leading SIPRI researcher.

That figure measures only direct imports from the US to Ukraine, she said. It does not include imports made on Ukraine’s behalf by other European states. So in reality, Ukraine’s needs made up an even bigger proportion of Europe’s imports.

Beneath that headline figure of growing European imports lies another picture of Europe.

“Taken together, the arms exports of the 27 current EU member states went up by 36 percent,” said SIPRI’s report.

That is a faster growth rate than the US’s 27 percent over the same period, and China’s 11 percent.

The European Union’s combined arms exports accounted for 28 percent of total global arms exports in the past five years, nearly replacing its imports, which account for a third of the world’s total.

That 28 percent of the global market is “four times higher than Russia’s export volume and five times higher than China’s”, said SIPRI.

Russia’s market crumbling

At the same time, Russia, seen as Europe’s main security threat, has seen its share of arms exports collapse by 64 percent in the past five years compared with the previous five years.

“Their exports have dropped off partly because they desperately need what they make themselves,” said General Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe.

“But nobody wants to buy Russian kit because it’s been proven to be not that good … their technology has been defeated by Ukrainian technology,” he told Al Jazeera.

Russia’s top clients are abandoning it, Djokic said.

“China has promoted its own defence industry and has become independent in arms production. For a while, they were importing at least, for instance, Russian-produced engines for Chinese-produced aircraft. Now they have their own design, they don’t really need it,” she said.

Will the US continue to dominate Europe?

Europe depends on the US for a number of reasons, said Djokic.

Some items, such as multiple-launch rocket systems, are not manufactured in Europe, she noted.

Then there is the desire to go for the best-in-class.

“[States] go for something they perceive as superior technology, so you have many air forces wanting to have the F-35 [jets] even though some of them can’t use all the capabilities they gain with that,” said Djokic.

Another example is the battle-proven Patriot antiballistic missile defence system.

But perhaps the biggest reason is the desire to strengthen the security partnership with the US, which has been perceived as the biggest security partner, “especially in the eastern part of the EU”, Djokic said.

For example, Poland, which says it is building Europe’s largest land army, is equipping its armed forces almost exclusively with US weapons.

That may be changing.

Unlike in previous support packages from the EU, Brussels is now insisting that Ukraine give preferential treatment to weapons it can buy in Europe.

That is because after the US moved away from providing aid to Ukraine under President Donald Trump, the EU has become Ukraine’s biggest donor and supporter, sending 195 billion euros ($230bn) to date and voting to lend Ukraine another 90 billion euros ($106bn) over the next two years. Much of that money will now flow back into the EU.

The perception of the US as a security partner is also likely to suffer, said Hodges.

“The transatlantic relationship is still there, but it’s not the same and probably will never be the same,” he said. “Europeans are realising that they have to become less and less dependent on the US if an American president can say, ‘S**** you guys’.”

‘Dangers are not going to go away’

Hodges was referring to Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine in the midst of Russia’s invasion, his questionable commitment to NATO and his threat this year to invade Greenland, a territory belonging to a NATO ally.

“Given Russia’s war in Ukraine, the fighting in the Middle East, the dangers are not going to go away. So most European countries have a more sober, realistic view of the threats and the need for stronger capabilities for deterrence, especially if they sense that the US is not as present or capable or reliable as it has been,” Hodges said.

“You’ll continue to see growth, and investors are more willing to invest in defence now – pension funds, insurance companies – who have traditionally shied away from defence.”

Europe has ploughed 150 billion euros ($175bn) into Security Action for Europe (SAFE), a low-cost loan programme given to member states that buy weapons from other member states. More than 113 billion euros ($113bn) of that have been allocated to member states.

None of these changes in spending and perception is yet reflected in SIPRI’s numbers.

“What we are witnessing now are new orders being placed for European weapons systems, prominently Aristide air defence systems from Germany, or Cesar howitzers from France, where you can tell that this kind of support through the European Union does play a role in promoting within-EU procurement,” said Djokic.

The Ecuadorian government has declared that it will significantly raise tariffs on imports from Colombia, increasing the rate from 30 percent to 50 percent starting March 1.

The decision, announced on Thursday, represents a major escalation in the intensifying trade and security dispute between the two neighbouring Andean countries.

Ecuador’s right-wing president, Daniel Noboa, has been pressuring his left-wing counterpart in Colombia, Gustavo Petro, to crack down on border security.

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, Ecuador has seen a surge in violence linked to the expansion of organised crime in the country.

Noboa, echoing President Donald Trump in the United States, has blamed Petro for not acting aggressively enough to combat narcotics trafficking. Colombia has, for many years, been the world’s largest source of cocaine.

And like Trump, Noboa has increasingly relied on tariffs against Colombia to force adherence to Ecuador’s national security strategy.

His government has accused Petro’s of failing to cooperate with border security measures. The two countries both sit on the Pacific coast, and they share a land border that stretches roughly 586 kilometres, or 364 miles.

Questions about electricity

Thursday’s announcement follows an initial 30 percent tariff imposed by Quito in early February.

Ecuadorian officials have also justified the protectionist measures by citing a growing trade deficit.

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a data analysis firm, nearly 4 percent of Colombian exports go to Ecuador, worth roughly $2.13bn. Ecuador imports significant quantities of medicines and pesticides from Colombia.

Fewer exports go from Ecuador to Colombia, though. Roughly 2.3 percent of Ecuador’s exports abroad go across the shared border, amounting to a value of $863m.

Ecuador’s trade deficit with Colombia sits at roughly $1.03bn through 2025, according to government data, excluding oil.

But in spite of the anticipated tariff hike, it is unclear whether Ecuador will apply the new tariffs to Colombian electricity — a critical resource for the country.

In a retaliatory move following the initial tariffs, Colombia suspended all energy sales to its neighbour.

That suspension risks fuelling tensions in Ecuador against Noboa’s government. Recent droughts have created disruptions to Ecuador’s hydroelectric dams, which provide nearly 70 percent of the country’s power.

Those disruptions have caused widespread power outages in recent years, which in turn have prompted antigovernment protests. In the past, Noboa has responded by buying electricity from Colombia.

Pipeline standoff

The transportation of fossil fuels has also become a flashpoint between Ecuador and Colombia in the aftermath of February’s tariffs.

Noboa’s government has hiked fees for Colombian crude delivered through the Trans-Ecuadorian System Oil Pipeline (SOTE) by 900 percent.

That raises the cost to approximately $30 per barrel. Colombia has responded by halting all oil shipments through the line.

Despite high-level diplomatic efforts, tensions between the neighbouring countries remain at an impasse.

Officials representing foreign policy and security held a meeting this month in Ecuador, but the gathering concluded without a breakthrough.

In announcing the latest tariff hike, Ecuador’s Ministry of Production and Foreign Trade levelled criticism at Colombia for failing to implement “concrete and effective” measures to curb drug trafficking along the border.

Once considered a bastion of stability, Ecuador has seen a spike in homicide and other violent crimes.

According to the Geneva-based Organized Crime Observatory, the Andean nation recorded a homicide rate of approximately one murder every hour last year.

The second straight monthly deterioration in the United States’ trade deficit occurred as US firms boosted imports of computer chips and other tech goods.

The United States trade deficit has widened sharply in December amid a surge in imports, and the goods shortfall in 2025 was the highest on record despite US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign-manufactured merchandise.

The second straight monthly deterioration in the trade deficit reported by the US Commerce Department on Thursday suggested that trade made little or no contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter.

Exports rose 6 percent last year, and imports rose nearly 5 percent.

The US deficit in the trade of goods widened 2 percent to a record $1.24 trillion last year as American companies boosted imports of computer chips and other tech goods from Taiwan to support massive investments in artificial intelligence.

Amid continuing tensions with Beijing, the deficit in the goods trade with China plunged nearly 32 percent to $202bn in 2025 on a sharp drop in both exports to and imports from the world’s second-biggest economy. But trade was diverted away from China. The goods gap with Taiwan doubled to $147bn and shot up 44 percent, to $178bn, with Vietnam.

Trump last year unleashed a barrage of tariffs against trading partners with the aim, among other things, of addressing trade imbalances and protecting US industries. But the punitive duties have not yielded a manufacturing renaissance, with factory employment declining by 83,000 jobs from January 2025 through January 2026.

“There just isn’t any evidence out there in the economic research literature to suggest that tariffs have materially impacted trade deficits historically when countries have implemented them,” said Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The trade gap ballooned by 32.6 percent to a five-month high of $70.3bn, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters forecast the trade deficit would contract to $55.5bn.

The report was delayed because of last year’s government shutdown.

Imports increased 3.6 percent to $357.6bn in December. Goods imports surged 3.8 percent to $280.2bn, boosted by a $7bn increase in industrial supplies and materials, mostly non-monetary gold, copper and crude oil. Capital goods imports increased by $5.6bn, lifted by computer accessories and telecommunications equipment. That rise is likely related to the construction of data centres to support artificial intelligence.

But consumer goods imports fell, pulled down by pharmaceutical preparations. There have been large swings in imports of pharmaceutical preparations because of tariffs.

“But strong imports should also imply strength in details like inventories or business investment,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. “Surging computer imports in particular should correspond with stronger business equipment investment and could remain strong due to AI-related demand.”

Exports fell 1.7 percent to $287.3bn in December. But capital goods exports increased, boosted by semiconductors. There were increases in exports of consumer goods, including pharmaceutical preparations.