Hezbollah

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 7 (UPI) — Lebanon faces the dilemma of whether to go ahead with negotiations with Israel to end the ongoing cycle of violence and prevent a full-scale war despite Hezbollah‘s rejection of the talks — highlighting a deep political divide within the country.

The Hezbollah-Israel war, which broke out when the Iran-backed group opened a support front for Gaza on Oct. 8, 2023, never came to an end, even after a cease-fire agreement was reached on Nov. 27, 2024.

Israel has continued its unrestrained attacks on Hezbollah, causing further casualties and destruction. It has refused to withdraw from five strategic positions it still occupies in southern Lebanon, refrained from releasing Lebanese prisoners detained during the war, and prevented displaced residents from returning to their border villages turned to ruin.

The Lebanese Army’s successful advance in taking control of southern Lebanon and eliminating Hezbollah’s military presence along the border and south of the Litani River, as stipulated by the cease-fire agreement, does not seem sufficient for Israel, which wants Hezbollah to be completely disarmed.

In fact, Hezbollah, which suffered heavy losses during the war, has refrained from firing a single shot in retaliation to Israel’s continued air and drone strikes, which allegedly target the group’s remaining arms depots and military infrastructure beyond southern areas of the Litani River.

However, Hezbollah’s recent claims that it has fully recovered, restructured its military capabilities and rebuilt its command structure — coupled with its refusal to disarm or support Lebanese President Joseph Aoun in his new approach to negotiations with Israel — put the country at risk of another round of war.

While Aoun said that Lebanon has no choice but to engage in talks with Israel to end its occupation and halt its attacks, Hezbollah rejected any attempt to involve the country in new negotiations — outside the framework of the “mechanism” committee responsible for supervising the implementation of the ceasefire accord — arguing that they would only serve “the enemy and its interests.”

Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former Army general, said it is the Lebanese state — not Hezbollah — that should negotiate with Israel, based on terms set by President Aoun: no direct or political negotiations, only military-security talks conducted via a third party, such as the U.S. or the United Nations, and no use of force to complete Hezbollah’s disarmament.

Jaber said that indirect talks with Israel had proven successful, recalling the 2022 U.S.-mediated maritime border deal that ended a years-long dispute between Lebanon and Israel over the ownership of natural gas fields.

“Why not do that again?” he told UPI. But to sit at the negotiation table, he added, the United States, which is pressuring Lebanon to accept the talks, should ensure that Israel withdraws from southern Lebanon and releases the prisoners, instead of “cornering us.”

What Lebanon wants is for Israel to abide by the truce accord through the “mechanism” committee, which is made up of Israel, Lebanon, the United States, France and the United Nations. However, the newly proposed negotiations, although their framework is still unclear, would also address land border disputes and other issues.

“There is a need for an agreement on the disputed points along the border, and this is not within the mandate of the mechanism,” said Riad Kahwaji, a Middle East security analyst, adding that the truce committee is charged with ensuring Hezbollah’s disarmament, the return of prisoners, and Israel’s withdrawal behind the [U.N.-drawn] Blue Line that existed before the last war in October 2023.

If the new negotiations with Israel proceed and result in a final land border agreement, it would lead to the cessation of the state of war between the two countries, and “the 1949 Armistice will prevail,” Kahwaji said..

“But, of course, Hezbollah does not want an end to the state of war between Lebanon and Israel, because that would require it to disarm, causing it to lose its value for Iran and its significance and standing within its own popular base,” he told UPI. “Its resistance will no longer be needed or relevant.”

However, Hezbollah’s attempts to rearm appear extremely difficult after the group lost its main supply route after the overthrow of its key ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad, as well as its long-standing access to Beirut’s port and airport, which it had used for years to smuggle weapons and funds.

It is now impossible for Hezbollah to smuggle large weapons, such as heavy missiles, across the border with Syria, though it may still attempt to acquire Grad rockets, anti-tank Kornet missiles and drones.

“If Hezbollah goes into another war with Israel, it will be using whatever is left from its arsenal, which is not that much,” Kahwaji said, noting that the group now has “a different leadership” after Israel killed most of its top leaders and military commanders, and that “its popular base is exhausted … so the repercussions will be huge.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is acting as a victor,” refusing to make any concessions and imposing all his conditions, he added.

Lebanon has been facing mounting pressure, especially from the United States and Israel, to disarm Hezbollah even forcibly. Authorities prefer a quiet approach to avoid a confrontation between the Lebanese Army and the militant group, which could create divisions within the army and potentially spark a civil war.

Jaber, the former Army general who is well-informed about Hezbollah, said Washington should instead understand and support Lebanon’s approach, because the group “is ready to hand over its weapons” if Israel stops its attacks and withdraws in line with the truce accord.

“Hezbollah is prepared to relinquish its offensive weapons first, followed by its defensive weapons at a later stage, as part of a national defense strategy,” he said. “This is now an attrition war, not between two parties, but led by only one [Israel].”

Iran, which has funded and armed Hezbollah since its formation in the early 1980s, no longer is interfering in the group’s day-to-day affairs, but remains keen to preserve it as a political and military entity -a card in its hand — after “losing all its other cards in the region,” Jaber said.

With Israel threatening to expand its attacks and launch a full-scale war to force the complete disarmament of Hezbollah, Lebanon remains with few options: diplomacy and political pressure.

“It is in Lebanon’s best interest to seize this opportunity and drag Israel into negotiations to end the war and the conflict,” Kahwaji said.

Video shows Israeli drones launching intense airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Thursday. At least one person was killed in the town of Toura. Israel said it was targeting Hezbollah sites despite a ceasefire agreed to with the group last year.

Israeli forces have carried out air strikes on the areas of Mahmoudiyeh and Jarmak, in southern Lebanon. The strikes are the latest in near-daily Israeli violations of the US-brokered ceasefire involving Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah that began in November.

Lebanon’s military is urgently working to meet a year-end deadline to disarm Hezbollah in southern Lebanon under a ceasefire deal with Israel. The operation marks a dramatic shift in Lebanon’s internal power dynamics, as the army takes on a role that would have been unthinkable during Hezbollah’s peak influence.

Two sources told Reuters that the army has blown up so many Hezbollah weapons caches that it has run out of explosives, forcing troops to seal off sites instead of destroying them until new U.S. supplies arrive.

Why It Matters

This campaign could redefine Lebanon’s sovereignty and reshape the balance between state and militia power. Hezbollah’s disarmament is a key demand from Washington and Israel, and its success could bring stability or trigger fresh unrest.
However, moving beyond the south risks sectarian tensions and could fracture the army, reviving memories of Lebanon’s civil war.

Lebanese Army: Leading disarmament under U.S. and international pressure, but facing shortages of explosives and political risks.

Hezbollah: Weakened by Israel’s war last year but still influential, especially in the north and Bekaa Valley, where disarmament remains uncertain.

United States: Providing millions in aid and demolition equipment to “degrade Hezbollah.”

Israel: Supplying intelligence through the truce mechanism but complicating operations with cross-border fire incidents.

UNIFIL: Supporting inspection and clearance operations in southern Lebanon.

Current Progress

Nine arms caches and dozens of tunnels have been uncovered in the south.

The army expects to complete southern operations by December.

Explosives depleted by June, with six soldiers killed during dismantling efforts.

$14 million in new U.S. demolition aid is expected, though delivery may take months.

Challenges Ahead

Hezbollah has agreed to ceasefire terms in the south but refuses to disarm elsewhere without a political deal.

Lebanese officials fear civil strife if the army expands disarmament north without consensus.

Israeli air strikes and occupation of five border hilltops threaten to delay progress.

What’s Next

The U.S. and allies are pressing Beirut to meet the year-end target and expand efforts beyond the south in 2026. But Hezbollah’s warning against confronting the Shi’ite community, and ongoing Israeli pressure, mean Lebanon’s army must walk a political and military tightrope.

As one Lebanese official put it: “The army if betting on time.”

With information from Reuters.

Oct. 27 (UPI) — The United Nations said its peacekeepers in southern Lebanon came under Israeli fire over the weekend, and were forced to “neutralize” one of its drones.

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon accused Israel of violating a U.N. Security Council resolution as well as Lebanon’s sovereignty with the attacks. It said in a statement that the military actions “show disregard for safety and security of peacekeepers implementing Security Council-mandated tasks in southern Lebanon.”

UNIFIL said it thrice came into contact with Israeli forces on Sunday near Kfar Kila in southern Lebanon.

An Israeli drone flew over a UNIFIL patrol in what it described as “an aggressive manner,” prompting peacekeepers to take “necessary defensive countermeasures to neutralize the drone.”

Then, at about 5:45 p.m. local time, an Israeli drone flying close to a UNIFIL patrol in the same area dropped a grenade, followed by an Israeli tank firing toward the peacekeepers as well as UNIFIL assets, it said.

The Israel Defense Forces confirmed UNIFIL had shot down one of its drones, The Times of Israel reported, asserting the aerial posed no threat to the peacekeepers.

According to the report, the IDF said it flew a second drone in the area after UNIFIL shot down the first one, which had dropped the grenade prevent others from approaching the downed aerial.

The IDF also denied one of its tanks having fired toward UNIFIL, saying it had detected no gunfire in the area.

UNIFIL has twice previously this month accused Israel of dropping grenades near UNIFIL peacekeepers in southern Lebanon.

On Oct. 12, UNIFIL said a grenade exploded near a UNIFIL position in Kfar Kila. On Oct. 2, grenades were dropped near peacekeepers in Maroun al-Ras.

UNIFIL maintains about 10,500 peacekeepers from 50 countries to monitor the 2006 cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah and prevent a large conflict from spiraling.

It comes as the stages of fragile cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza are being implemented.

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Oct. 24 (UPI) — The inhabitants of southern Lebanon continue to live under the shadow of war, enduring near-daily Israeli airstrikes, intensive shelling and persistent drone activity that inflict further casualties and destruction, deepen suffering and shatter what remains of daily life.

A cease-fire accord brokered by the United States and France on Nov. 27 intended to end Israel’s devastating war against the Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah militant group has failed to halt hostilities or restore calm to the embattled region.

Interpreting the truce accord as granting it the right to respond to any emerging threat, Israel has continued its attacks without restraint across southern Lebanon and beyond.

The post-truce phase has proven even more difficult and uncertain than the war itself, which began on Oct. 8, 2023, when Hezbollah entered the conflict by opening a front in support of Gaza.

Suspected Hezbollah positions and efforts to prevent the group from regrouping and rearming have not been Israel’s only targets. The strikes now also include private construction equipment businesses, bulldozers, excavators and anything related to rebuilding while showing no restraint toward civilians — whether in vehicles, on motorcycles or even at home.

The most intense strikes occurred Oct. 11, targeting bulldozer and excavator yards in the al-Msayleh area, where more than 300 vehicles worth millions of dollars were destroyed. One Syrian passerby was killed, and seven people, including two women, were wounded.

A week later, a quarry and cement-asphalt factory in the village of Ansar, in the Nabatiyeh district, was hit by another Israeli attack and destroyed. Israel claimed that the targeted facilities were being used by Hezbollah to produce cement for rebuilding infrastructure that had been demolished during the war — an allegation strongly denied by the plant’s managing director.

“We are a 100% civilian institution and have nothing to do with anything else,” Ali Haidar Khalifeh, who is running the targeted cement factory, told UPI. “We are a registered company with around 70 employees and a large-scale production, serving dozens of clients, distributors and suppliers from across all regions of Lebanon.”

Khalifeh, who estimated the losses at more than $15 million, said it was inconceivable to hide “weapons, missiles or military infrastructure” in the plant.

“The enemy [Israel] needs no excuse or reason. … The message is clear: it is forbidden to rebuild,” he said. “It is also meant to frighten businessmen and investors, to keep them away from southern Lebanon.”

Even civilian engineers, who assist in assessing the damage inflicted on houses and villages during the war, have been threatened and targeted.

Tarek Mazaraani was one of them. He, his family and neighbors endured a frightening experience when an Israeli drone flying over several villages in southern Lebanon broadcast a voice message calling his name and warning that he was “dangerous,” telling people to keep away from him.

At first, when his friends started sending him videos of the drone, Mazraani thought it was a joke. He soon realized it was “something serious.”

His three sons, including 8-year-old twins, began to cry, while neighbors in the compound where he was temporarily living in the village of Zawtar al-Sharkiyeh in the Nabatiyeh district rushed to his house to bid farewell before leaving for safer locations. His family packed their belongings and went to relatives in a nearby village, while he quickly headed to Beirut.

“I was surprised. … I am a simple civilian engineer and don’t belong to any party or provoke anyone,” Mazraani told UPI, adding that he felt guilty for his family and neighbors, who had to “live through the tension” and leave their homes.

He asked why Israel had “created all this terror” if its intention was to kill him, adding, “They could have done so without even a warning.”

It could well have been a warning to him and others not to deal with Hezbollah, directly or indirectly. Earlier this year, while unemployed, he briefly worked as part of a team of engineers assessing war damage with “Jihad al-Binaa,” a Hezbollah-affiliated development and reconstruction organization.

Probably, he said, his other “sin” was trying to help displaced people return to their border villages, which had been reduced to rubble during the war, and seek compensation.

Mazraani was forced to leave his border village of Houla, where his house had been badly damaged by intensive Israeli bombardment. He then established the “Gathering of Residents of Southern Border Villages,” composed of displaced people from 45 villages, to draw attention to the plight of some 80,000 inhabitants who remain displaced and without resources.

Israel is making it clear, residents say, that it will not allow reconstruction in southern Lebanon or international funding unless Hezbollah is fully disarmed and the Lebanese government accepts direct negotiations on security arrangements.

Even prefabricated houses, water tanks and small vans are not permitted and are being destroyed. With the olive harvest season beginning, farmers in the border areas must obtain permission from Israeli authorities to harvest and are usually accompanied by the Lebanese Army and U.N. peacekeeping forces.

According to a Lebanese Army source, Israel has been using Hezbollah and its alleged efforts to rebuild military infrastructure as a pretext to block any reconstruction efforts and hinder a return to normalcy.

The source explained that destroying cement plants and bulldozers, threatening engineers and imposing curfews were intended to block the return of inhabitants to their villages and establish a security belt in the area until an agreement with Lebanon could be reached.

“These are also political pressures exerted on the government,” he told UPI.

Referring to recent Israeli war threats, drills on its northern front and intensified drone surveillance over Beirut — specifically targeting the presidential and government palaces — the source explained that “it is a psychological war aimed at dragging the government into accepting direct negotiations [with Israel], while the drones are searching for new targets.”

With the Army successfully advancing in taking control of southern Lebanon, the source confirmed that “there is no Hezbollah presence” along the border or south of the Litani River, as stipulated by the cease-fire agreement.

Regarding growing fears that Israel might be preparing to escalate the war on Lebanon, he said, “It can — as no one is deterring it, and it listens to no one except [U.S. President Donald] Trump.”

Many Lebanese, especially the inhabitants of southern Lebanon believe the war was never truly over, and that the truce accord merely prolonged the conflict to Israel’s advantage.

“The first thing we want is safety and security — to stop the fire so we can go back and rebuild our villages and homes,” said Mazraani, who said he was exhausted by the war, echoing the wish of many others in southern Lebanon.

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Oct. 10 (UPI) — Lebanon and Syria announced Friday the opening of a new chapter in their relations nearly 10 months after the ouster of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

This marks an attempt to move away from decades of tense ties, characterized by political domination and military interference, toward building a strong political and economic partnership.

Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani, the first high-ranking Syrian official to visit Lebanon since Assad was overthrown by rebel insurgents in December, said a historic, political and economic opportunity exists to transform the Lebanese-Syrian relationship from “a tense, security-based one into a strong political and economic partnership” that benefits both countries.

“We look forward to turning the page on the past because we want to build the future,” al-Shibani said, reaffirming his country’s respect for Lebanon’s sovereignty and its commitment to establishing strong bilateral relations.

Earlier Friday, Syria told Lebanon it decided to suspend the work of the Lebanese-Syrian Higher Council and limit all forms of correspondence between the two countries to official diplomatic channels.

The council was established in 1991, after Syria — under the late President Hafez Assad — imposed itself as the main power broker in Lebanon, having been granted a guardianship role after the civil war ended a year earlier.

Lebanon has suffered from a decades-long Syrian military presence — which began in 1976, shortly after the outbreak of the civil strife — along with political domination and manipulation that deeply affected its governance, political life, economy and overall stability.

Syria also was accused of being behind the 2005 assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and numerous other such killings during the civil war and in peace time. Its influence over Lebanon began to wane rapidly following the withdrawal of its troops in 2005 and the outbreak of anti-Assad peaceful protests in 2011, which soon escalated into a bloody civil war.

Syrians, for their part, harbor grudges against Hezbollah — and its patron, Iran –for siding with the Assad regime and joining the brutal battles against opposition fighters starting in 2012. The involvement of Hezbollah and Iran in Syria ended with Assad’s fall.

“Our peoples have suffered from wars and tragedies; let us try peace,” al-Shibani said after talks with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, calling for strengthened cooperation in all fields so that Lebanon can benefit from the lifting of international sanctions on Syria.

Aoun, who called for the appointment of a new Syrian ambassador to Lebanon — a post vacant since the fall of Assad — said that deepening and developing bilateral relations requires the formation of joint committees to address all outstanding issues.

Both countries have undergone major changes and are working to resolve several complex issues, including the case of over 2,000 Syrian detainees in Lebanese prisons, the fate of numerous Lebanese prisoners or missing persons in Syria, the return of 1.5 million Syrian refugees from Lebanon to their homeland, the demarcation of land and maritime borders, and joint efforts to combat drug trafficking and terrorism.

“We have a long road ahead of us. …. We have no choice but to agree on what serves these mutual interests,” Aoun said, noting that the situation along the Lebanese-Syrian border has improved.

Al Shibani, accompanied by Syrian Justice Minister Mazhar al-Wais, the head of Syrian intelligence, Hussein al-Salama; and the assistant interior minister, Maj. Gen. Abdel Qader Tahan, said all these issues were “certainly top priorities” and that committees from both countries are reviewing them.

The Syrian foreign minister, who also met with his Lebanese counterpart, Joe Rajji, and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, emphasized the importance of enhancing security and intelligence coordination, as well as forming technical and economic committees across the public and private sectors to support Syria’s post-war reconstruction.

“Syria is undergoing a phase of recovery and reconstruction, which should positively reflect on Lebanon,” al-Shibani said.

Rajji praised Syria’s new leadership for respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty and refraining from interference in its internal affairs, adding, “We will work together to open a new path based on peace, security, economic cooperation and joint development.”

Deputy Prime Minister Tarek Mitri, who attended the meeting between al-Shibani and Salam, said both countries demonstrated “political will” to address every issue “without taboos.”

“We have opened a new chapter in Lebanese-Syrian relations unlike any seen in the past fifty years,” Mitri said in an official statement released after the meeting.

A year on from Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, reports say Hezbollah, the Lebanese group he led, is regrouping.

Analysts believe that while a weakened Hezbollah can no longer pose a significant threat to Israel, it can still create chaos and challenge opponents domestically as it tries to find a political footing to preserve its clout.

Long viewed as the strongest nonstate armed actor in the region, Hezbollah found its star waning in the past year, culminating in an international and domestic push for it to disarm entirely.

Handled recklessly, analysts believe, pressures to disarm the group could lead it to lash out and create internal strife that could outweigh international and regional pushes.

Hezbollah’s rhetoric remains defiant, and it has promised to reject Lebanese government efforts to disarm it – as its current leader, Naim Qassem, reiterated on Saturday to a crowd of thousands of people who had gathered at Nasrallah’s tomb to commemorate his assassination.

“We will never abandon our weapons, nor will we relinquish them,” he said to the crowd, adding that Hezbollah would continue to “confront any project that serves Israel”.

No action yet

Hezbollah started trading attacks with Israel on October 8, 2023, the day after the latter launched its war on Gaza. This continued until September 2024 when an Israeli military intensification and subsequent invasion killed about 4,000 people in Lebanon, injured thousands more and displaced hundreds of thousands.

By the time a ceasefire was announced on November 27, much of Hezbollah’s senior military leadership, including Nasrallah, the group’s secretary-general, had been killed by Israel.

The terms of the ceasefire were poorly defined, according to diplomatic sources with knowledge of the agreement, but the public understanding was that both sides would cease attacks, Hezbollah would disarm in southern Lebanon and Israel would withdraw its forces from the south. But soon after, Israel and the United States argued that Hezbollah must disarm entirely.

Seeing it weakened, Hezbollah’s domestic and regional opponents began calling for the group to give up its weapons. Sensing the changing regional winds, many of Hezbollah’s domestic allies jumped ship and voiced support for full disarmament.

The Lebanese government, under pressure from the US and Israel, announced on September 5 that the Lebanese armed forces have been tasked with forming a plan to disarm Hezbollah.

In the meantime, Israel has continually violated the ceasefire, bombing southern Lebanon. UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in the south, said Israel is committing “continuous violations of this [ceasefire] arrangement, including air and drone strikes on Lebanese territory”.

Despite media speculation that Hezbollah is regrouping in southern Lebanon, particularly in anti-Hezbollah media outlets, it has only claimed one attack since the ceasefire was announced in November.

Analysts believe Hezbollah is no longer in a position to threaten Israel, meaning that any decision by the latter to expand attacks in Lebanon would be for considerations other than Hezbollah’s current capabilities.

Hezbollah and its supporters argue that Israel’s threats and continued violations as well as its continued presence occupying five points on Lebanese territory justify the need for resistance.

“The continued existence of a real threat justifies the maintenance of deterrence and defence capabilities because deterrence is not a one-time event but rather a cumulative process that requires a stable and integrated power structure within a broader political context,” Ali Haidar, a columnist with the pro-Hezbollah newspaper Al-Akhbar, wrote recently.

Al Jazeera reached out to Hezbollah for comment but did not receive a response before publication.

What does ‘regrouping’ mean?

“No military or political military force [will not] regroup after suffering a major defeat as [Hezbollah] did last year,” Michael Young, a Lebanese analyst and writer, said.

“But are they in a position to mount rockets and bomb northern Israel along the border? No. Are they in a position to fire missiles at towns and cities? No.

“So what does [regrouping] mean?”

Lebanese political scientist Imad Salamey told Al Jazeera: “Hezbollah is significantly degraded – leadership attrition, [communications] penetrations and blows to command and control have been real. They will try to recover, but the plausible path is a smaller, cheaper, more agile Hezbollah.

“Israeli assessments themselves note both the damage done and Hezbollah’s attempts to regenerate via smuggling/self-production under intense intelligence pressure, suggesting any rebound will be partial and tactical rather than structural in the near term,” Salamey added.

In early December, the regime of Hezbollah ally Bashar al-Assad was toppled in Syria, another blow to the group, as it cut off a direct land route for weapons and financing to reach the group from Iran.

In the meantime, however, analysts said Hezbollah has been trying to use its remaining leverage through diplomacy, even sending signals to longtime foes like Saudi Arabia.

“We assure you that the arms of the resistance are pointed at the Israeli enemy, not Lebanon, Saudi Arabia or any other place or entity in the world,” Qassem said in a speech on September 19.

The message to Saudi Arabia, which has previously funded Hezbollah’s opponents in Lebanon, is part of a shift in the group’s strategy, analysts said.

“There’s a hint that they feel they can deal with things politically,” Young said. “They may feel they don’t need to resort to force or weapons if they can get more out of the system.”

It is also a reflection of the new political reality in Lebanon and the region, where Israel and the US have ascended in power and Iran, Hezbollah’s close ally, has faltered.

“Hezbollah is starting to realise that it is entrapped,” Lebanese political analyst Karim Emile Bitar told Al Jazeera.

Before the war, Hezbollah had the ability to make or break governments. But President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam were elected in early 2025 despite neither being Hezbollah’s preferred candidate.

Still, Hezbollah was either unwilling or unable to disrupt the formation of Salam’s government. Analysts said the group is in dire need of foreign aid that the government could secure to help rebuild its constituencies damaged by Israeli attacks.

But that money has yet to arrive as there is regional and domestic debate over whether the government should receive reconstruction funds before Hezbollah’s disarmament and other banking or political reforms.

Analysts and diplomats told Al Jazeera Hezbollah is still capable of raising tensions but has avoided fanning any flames due to the Lebanese state’s rising support as well as the fatigue and trauma Hezbollah members and supporters have due to last year’s war and continuing Israeli attacks on Lebanon.

Still, on Thursday, Hezbollah supporters flocked to Beirut’s seaside in remembrance of Nasrallah. Supporters projected their late leader’s image onto the Raouche Rocks, defying orders from the prime minister’s office that banned the act.

The event was seen as an expression of love for Nasrallah by his supporters and a provocation by Hezbollah’s opponents. But the group, which has threatened violence to get its way in the past, has largely avoided provocations since the war, apart from occasional attempts to block roads that were quickly reopened by the Lebanese military.

If Hezbollah is pursuing military regrouping, a senior Western diplomat with knowledge of the issue said, it would be more likely in the Bekaa Valley than in the south, where the ceasefire mechanism had been largely effective at supervising Hezbollah’s withdrawal.

The group, however, does appear to be altering its political strategy, Young said, adding that Hezbollah, via instructions from Iran, may eventually be looking for certain compromises.

He pointed out proposals by parliamentarians Ali Hassan Khalil, a Hezbollah ally, and Ali Fayyad, a Hezbollah MP, in their subcommittees, where they spoke about implementing the 1989 Ta’ef Accord, an agreement that ended the civil war, declared all militias should give up their arms and Lebanon should transition to a nonsectarian system of power.

“Their implicit point is that ‘If we implement Ta’ef in its entirety, then that can give us a greater role with better representation, and then we can talk about weapons,’” Young said.

‘Time for Hezbollah to go’?

Amid the intensifying pressure to disarm Hezbollah, analysts and diplomats fear that if pressed too hard, the group could lash out.

The US has announced a $14.2m aid package for the Lebanese military to help it disarm Hezbollah, and visits by US officials – including Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, deputy special envoy Morgan Ortagus and special envoy Tom Barrack – have intensified pressure on Lebanon.

“It’s time for Hezbollah to go,” Graham said during his visit in late August.

But Lebanon’s military has rejected setting a strict timetable for Hezbollah’s disarmament over fears the tense situation in Lebanon could descend into violence.

And news of the US aid has been received poorly in parts of Lebanon, where it is seen as part of a US effort to use Lebanon’s military to execute Israeli interests.

“[The Lebanese army] will never serve as a border guard for Israel. Its weapons are not weapons of discord, and its mission is sacred: to protect Lebanon and the Lebanese people,” Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who is a Hezbollah ally, said in a statement on Tuesday.

The fears of diplomats and analysts are that a confrontation between the army and Hezbollah could lead to internal strife and a potential fracturing of the army along confessional lines – similar to what happened in the early days of the 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War.

“[Disarming Hezbollah by force] is the worst possible option, but obviously, this is how the Americans are increasingly pressuring the Lebanese government to resolve this,” Young told Al Jazeera.

“The Lebanese army is not willing to resolve it through the use of force because they don’t want to be pushed into conflict with Hezbollah.”

Sept. 10 (UPI) — The Trump administration approved an assistance package worth $14.2 million to assist Lebanon with its efforts to disarm Hezbollah, the U.S. Defense Department announced Wednesday.

The Lebanese military will use funds from the Presidential Drawdown Authority package to dismantle arms held by non-state groups, including Hezbollah.

On Friday, the Lebanese government welcomed a plan by its army to disarm the Iran-backed Hezbollah. This came after Lebanon’s Cabinet approved of a U.S. proposal to direct the Lebanese military to enforce a state monopoly on weapons by the end of the year.

A release from the Pentagon said the package will provide the Lebanese military with the ability to carry out patrols and dispose of unexploded ordnance.

Through the package, the U.S. Defense Department is “empowering” the Lebanese military “in degrading Hezbollah in alignment with the administration’s priority to counter Iranian-backed terrorist groups in the region,” the release said.

During last week’s meeting between the Lebanese Cabinet and military, all five Shiite ministers, four of who represent Hezbollah and its main ally, the Amal Movement, left in protest of the disarmament plan. They said any plan to disarm Hezbollah must start with discussing a defense strategy to protect the country.

As part of the Nov. 27 cease-fire deal to end the 14-month war between Lebanon and Hezbollah, all parties agreed to discuss a national defense strategy. Hezbollah, however resisted government plans to set a deadline for disarmament.

Dalal Saoud contributed to this report.

Sept. 10 (UPI) — Elizabeth Tsurkov, an Israeli-Russian citizen and a Princeton University student who has been held captive by Shiite militants in Iraq since March 2023, has been freed, President Donald Trump and Iraqi government forces confirmed.

Circumstances surrounding her release were not clear. The Iraqi government said its security forces had discovered Tsurkov’s place of detention Tuesday. It said they reached that location and then handed Tsurkov over to the U.S. embassy, without stating how her freedom was secured.

Trump, on his Truth Social platform, said she had been released by Kata’ib Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist organization.

Sabah al-Numan, a spokesman for the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, said in a statement that Tsurkov had been handed over to the U.S. Embassy in Iraq, which Trump confirmed.

“On this occasion, we reaffirm that our armed forces and all our security agencies and formations will not hesitate to perform their duty to enforce the rule of law, defend the state and its institutions and hold accountable anyone who tries to harm the security and stability that has been achieved through great sacrifices and sincere national efforts,” al-Numan said.

Trump said, “I will always fight for JUSTICE, and never give up.”

A PhD student in political science at Princeton University, Tsurkov had traveled to Iraq in 2023 to conduct fieldwork when on March 21, eight days after her arrival, she was kidnapped from the Karrada neighborhood of Baghdad.

Months after she was detained, Israel announced that Kata’ib Hezbollah had been responsible for Tsurkov’s abduction.

Emma Tsurkov, one of Elizabeth’s sisters and an American citizen, said in a statement that her family was “incredibly happy” and “cannot wait to see Elizabeth and give her all the love we have been waiting to share for 903 days.”

Among those she thanked for aiding in securing Elizabeth’s release were Trump, his special envoy Adam Boehler, the U.S. Embassy in Iraq and Global Reach, a nonprofit that advocates for Americans detained abroad and has been supporting her family following Elizabeth’s abduction.

“This is a day we have all been waiting for,” Global Reach CEO Mickey Bergman told UPI in an emailed statement.

“As an Israeli-born American, Elizabeth’s safe return was particularly personal for me. It is important to know that we live in a country that fights for those in need, especially those in need, especially those who are targeted just because of their status or relationship with the United States.”

Princeton President Christopher Eisgruber similarly said in a statement that Tsurkov’s release “brings relief and joy to the university community, and we celebrate that she will be reunited with her family.”

Israel claims it has struck Hezbollah targets, although the Lebanese group has not commented.

At least five people have been killed and five others wounded after Israeli warplanes struck eastern Lebanon in the latest violation of the ceasefire agreement signed last November, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

The attacks on Monday hit the Bekaa and Hermel districts, with state media saying at least eight air raids were carried out. According to Lebanon’s National News Agency, seven bombs fell on the outskirts of Hermel, while another strike targeted the nearby town of Labweh.

Israel’s military claimed the raids hit weapons depots and military facilities used by Hezbollah, though the claims could not be independently confirmed. Hezbollah has not yet commented.

Israel has continued launching near-daily assaults on Lebanese territory, particularly in the south, while maintaining an occupation at five border outposts despite the truce requiring a full withdrawal earlier this year.

The conflict erupted on October 8, 2023, when Israel opened a military offensive in Lebanon. By the time the ceasefire was reached in November the following year, more than 4,000 people had been killed and almost 17,000 wounded.

The fragile truce is under further strain as Lebanon grapples with a contentious plan pushed by the United States and Israel to disarm Hezbollah.

Earlier this month, Lebanon’s army presented a proposal to the cabinet outlining steps to begin dismantling the group’s arsenal. Information Minister Paul Morcos said the government welcomed the move, but stopped short of confirming cabinet approval.

The plan prompted a walkout by five Shia ministers, including representatives of Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal Movement, who insist the group will not disarm while Israel continues air strikes and occupation in the south.

The US and Hezbollah’s political rivals in Lebanon have increased pressure on the group to surrender its weapons. Hezbollah has resisted, warning that even raising the issue while Israeli attacks persist would be a “serious misstep”.

Last week, Israeli strikes killed four people in Lebanon, underlining the escalating tension despite the ceasefire. Israel was also slammed for dropping grenades close to peacekeepers from the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) last week.

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Sept. 5 (UPI) — The Lebanese Cabinet on Friday embraced a plan prepared by the Army to disarm Iran-backed Hezbollah, but decided to keep its details confidential, stating that the military would begin implementing it based on its available and limited capabilities.

Information Minister Paul Morcos, reading a statement at the end of the Cabinet session, said that the Council of Ministers “welcomed” the plan put forth by the Army Command and its “successive phases” aimed at ensuring the implementation of the decision to “restrict weapons to the hands of the legitimate authorities.”

Morcos said the Cabinet, in asking that the plan and its related deliberations remain confidential, requested the Army Command to submit a monthly report on progress made.

All five Shiite ministers, four of whom represent Hezbollah and its main ally, the Amal Movement, walked out of the session when Army Cmdr. Gen. Rodolphe Haykal Haykal joined to present the Army’s plan.

Hezbollah’s Labor Minister Mohammad Haidar explained in a post on X that they were protesting the discussion of the Army’s plan “at this timing,” arguing that achieving a “monopoly of weapons” requires initiating the process with “a defense strategy to protect Lebanon.”

Last month, the Cabinet endorsed the objectives of a U.S.-proposed plan to disarm Hezbollah and tasked the Army with preparing a strategy to enforce a state monopoly on weapons by the end of the year.

The Army’s plan reportedly did not include a clear timeframe for its implementation — a move intended to ease tensions with Hezbollah, which has refused to disarm and rejected the deadline previously set by the government because of Israel’s ongoing occupation of parts of southern Lebanon, daily air strikes and detention of Lebanese prisoners.

Morcos said the Army will begin to implement the plan, “but in accordance with the available and limited logistical, financial and human resources.”

He pointed to several “constraints” that hinder the plan’s execution, citing foremost among them Israel’s ongoing violations of the Nov. 27 cease-fire agreement brokered by the United States and France to end the 14-month war between Israel and Hezbollah.

While Hezbollah implicitly agreed to discuss its weapons as part of a national defense strategy, it resisted government efforts to set a timetable for disarming — a key U.S. condition for unlocking much-needed international and Gulf Arab funding to support Lebanon’s reconstruction and economic recovery.

Morcos said while Lebanon has taken “two fundamental unilateral steps” — approving the U.S.-backed disarmament proposal and entrusting its army with extending state authority across all Lebanese territory — Israel has so far shown “no commitment” to the proposal, “nor taken any reciprocal actions.”

He reiterated that Israel “bears clear obligations” under U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 and the cease-fire agreement, warning that its continued violations “pose serious risks to regional security and stability.”

“Our concerns remain ensuring that the entirety of the country falls under the Army’s authority, advancing reconstruction, stopping Israeli hostilities and addressing the issue of detainees,” Morcos said.

“We continue moving in the same direction … and progressing , without igniting internal division, because such a division would not serve our interests.”

Lebanon, facing mounting pressure from the United States and regional powers to disarm Hezbollah, risks internal divisions and a breakdown in security due to the militant group’s refusal to lay down its arms.

Its decision to set a timeline for Hezbollah disarmament was mainly motivated by the risk of another destructive war with Israel and losing much-needed funds to rebuild its war-devastated regions.

According to The New York Times, U.S officials warned that Lebanon’s leaders are running out of time to disarm Hezbollah at the risk of losing U.S. and Gulf Arab financial support and even seeing a renewed military campaign.

The newspaper reported that the United States, Israel and the Gulf Arab states were pressuring the Lebanese government “to act decisively” and not be intimidated by Hezbollah threats to incite violence.

It quoted one U.S. official as warning that “inaction or half-measures” by Lebanon could lead Congress to cut off roughly $150 million in annual funding for the Lebanese Armed Forces.

Other U.S. officials said that the greater risk to Lebanon is that Israel will conclude it must “finish the job” through renewed military campaign that could incur major damage and casualties.

The Hezbollah-Israel war killed or wounded more 21,500 people, displaced more than 1.2 million people and left border villages in southern Lebanon in ruins.

According to the World Bank’s estimate, Lebanon needs $11 billion for reconstruction and economic recovery, while Lebanese officials put it at more than $14 billion.

Five Shia ministers walk out of cabinet debate as Hezbollah remains adamant it will hold onto its weapons.

Lebanon’s army has presented a plan to the government’s cabinet to disarm Hezbollah, saying the military will begin executing it, as some ministers staged a walkout before the session began.

On Friday, Lebanon’s cabinet met for three hours, which included the plan’s presentation by army commander Rodolphe Haykal. The plan did not set a timeframe for implementation and cautioned that the army had limited capabilities.

Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos told reporters after the session that the government welcomed the plan, but stopped short of saying the cabinet had formally passed it.

He said the army would begin implementing the plan according to its logistical, material and personnel capabilities, which might require “additional time [and] additional effort”.

Morcos said the plan’s details would remain secret.

A national divide over Hezbollah’s disarmament has taken centre stage in Lebanon since last year’s devastating war with Israel, which upended a power balance long dominated by Hezbollah.

Five Shia ministers, including those from Hezbollah and its ally the Amal Movement, walked out of the cabinet meeting, with the Lebanese armed group adamant it will hold onto its weapons.

The walkout happened as Lebanon’s army chief Haykal entered the meeting to present a plan for disarming the group, local media reported.

Hezbollah and Amal ministers have now walked out of cabinet meetings three times over the disarmament issue.

Hezbollah-aligned Labor Minister Mohammad Haidar told local media before the cabinet’s session had concluded that any decision taken in the absence of Shia ministers would be null and void, as it would be considered in contravention of Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system.

Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem last month raised the spectre of civil war, warning the government against trying to confront the group and saying street protests were possible.

Military and political analyst Elijah Magnier says it is not possible for the Lebanese army to confront Hezbollah, adding that it did not “have the appetite to start a civil war”.

“It [also] doesn’t want a partition in the army, because the Shia members within the army would not side by the Lebanese army if it attacks Shia strongholds,” he told Al Jazeera.

Calls grow to disarm

The United States and Saudi Arabia, along with Hezbollah’s primarily Christian and Sunni opponents in Lebanon, have ramped up calls for the group to give up arms.

US Senators Jim Risch and Jeanne Shaheen, members of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, issued a joint statement in support of Hezbollah’s disarmament on Friday.

“Lebanon deserves a free, prosperous, and secure future. That will only be possible if Lebanon is freed from the influence of Hezbollah and the Iranian regime,” the senators said.

“We recognize that Lebanon’s government has made important progress in the past year, and we applaud the recent decision by Lebanon’s Council of Ministers to approve disarming militias in Lebanon. This commitment must be carried out to its full conclusion, including approving the Lebanese Armed Forces’ disarmament plan for Hezbollah.”

The bipartisan statement underscores growing pressure from Washington on Beirut to curb Hezbollah’s influence, a longstanding demand of both the US and international partners.

However, Hezbollah has pushed back, saying it would be a serious misstep to even discuss disarmament while Israel continues its air strikes on Lebanon and occupies swathes of territory in the south. Four people were killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday.

Israeli forces have continued to carry out air attacks across Lebanon in near-daily violations of the November truce, causing deaths and injuries among civilians, including Syrian refugees, and destruction of properties and infrastructure.

BEIRUT — A U.S. diplomat apologized Thursday for using the word “animalistic” while calling for a gaggle of reporters to quiet down during a news conference in Lebanon earlier this week.

Tom Barrack, who is the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and envoy to Syria and has also been on a temporary assignment in Lebanon, said he didn’t intend to use the word “in a derogatory manner” but that his comments had been “inappropriate.”

Barrack visited Beirut along with a delegation of U.S. officials on Tuesday to discuss efforts by the Lebanese government to disarm the Hezbollah militant group and implementation of the ceasefire agreement that ended the latest war between Israel and the Hezbollah in November.

At the start of a news conference at the presidential palace, journalists shouted at Barrack to move to the podium after he started speaking from another spot in the room. After taking the podium Barrack told the crowd of journalists to “act civilized, act kind, act tolerant.” He threatened to end the conference early otherwise.

“The moment that this starts becoming chaotic, like animalistic, we’re gone,” said Barrack.

The comment sparked an outcry, with the Lebanese press syndicate calling for an apology and calling for a boycott of Barrack’s visits if none was issued. The Presidential Palace also issued a statement expressing regret for the comments made by “one of our guests” and thanking journalists for their “hard work.”

In an interview with Mario Nawfal, a media personality on the X platform, an excerpt of which was published Thursday, Barrack said, “Animalistic was a word that I didn’t use in a derogatory manner, I was just saying ‘can we calm down, can we find some tolerance and kindness, let’s be civilized.’ But it was inappropriate to do when the media was just doing their job.”

He added, “I should have been more generous with my time and more tolerant myself.”

Barrack’s visit came after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces could begin withdrawing from territory they hold in southern Lebanon after the Lebanese government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah. When, how and in what order the Hezbollah disarmament and Israeli withdrawal would take place remain in dispute.

The Israeli army on Thursday launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon that it said were targeting “terrorist infrastructure and a rocket platform” belonging to Hezbollah.

Several hours later the Lebanese army announced that two of its soldiers had been killed while investigating an Israeli drone that had crashed in the area of Naqoura on the southern coast, which then exploded. It was not clear why the drone had fallen or what caused the explosion.

BEIRUT — Saudi Arabia and Qatar are ready to invest in an economic zone in south Lebanon near the border with Israel that would create jobs for members of the militant Hezbollah group and its supporters once they lay down their weapons, President Trump’s envoy to the Middle East said Tuesday.

Tom Barrack made his comments in Beirut after trips to Israel and Syria where he discussed with officials there the ongoing situation in Lebanon following this month’s decision by the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year. Hezbollah’s leader rejected the government’s plan, vowing to keep the weapons.

On Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces could begin withdrawing from territory they hold in southern Lebanon after the Lebanese government’s “momentous decision” to disarm Hezbollah.

The U.S.-backed Lebanese army is preparing a plan for Hezbollah’s disarmament that should be ready by the end of August. The government is expected to discuss the army’s plan and approve it during a meeting scheduled for Sept. 2.

“We have to have money coming into the system. The money will come from the Gulf,” Barrack told reporters after meeting President Joseph Aoun. “Qatar and Saudi Arabia are partners and are willing to do that for the south (of Lebanon) if we’re asking a portion of the Lebanese community to give up their livelihood.”

“We have 40,000 people that are being paid by Iran to fight. What are you gonna do with them? Take their weapon and say ‘by the way, good luck planting olive trees’? It can’t happen. We have to help them,” Barrack said. He was referring to tens of thousands of Hezbollah members who have been funded since the early 1980s by Tehran.

“We, all of us, the Gulf, the U.S., the Lebanese are all gonna act together to create an economic forum that is gonna produce a livelihood,” Barrack said.

When asked why the U.S. doesn’t go to discuss the Hezbollah issue directly with Iran rather than traveling to Israel and Syria, Barrack said: “You think that’s not happening? Goodbye.” Barrack then ended his news conference and walked out of the room.

Speaking on the U.N. peacekeeping force that has been deployed in south Lebanon since Israel first invaded the country in 1978, Barrack said the U.S. would rather fund the Lebanese army than the force that is known as UNIFIL. Speaking about this week’s vote at the United Nations in New York, Barrack said the U.S. backs extending UNIFIL’s term for one year only.

Conflict escalated to war in September 2024, before November ceasefire

A low-level conflict between Israel and Hezbollah started a day after the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack against Israel from Gaza, when Hezbollah began launching rockets across the border in support of its Palestinian ally. The conflict escalated into war in September 2024 and left more than 4,000 people dead, and caused destruction worth $11 billion in Lebanon, according to the World Bank.

The war ended in November with a U.S.-brokered ceasefire and since then Hezbollah says it has ended its presence along the border area. Israel has continued almost daily airstrikes that have killed dozens of Hezbollah members.

Amnesty International in a report released Tuesday said it had identified more than 10,000 buildings that were “heavily damaged or destroyed” in southern Lebanon between October 2024 and January this year.

Israeli forces remained in much of the border area for weeks after the ceasefire agreement went into effect and are still holding five strategic points.

Amnesty’s report alleged that Israeli forces may have violated international law by destroying civilian property in areas they were controlling with “manually laid explosives and bulldozers” after the active fighting had ended and there was no longer an “imperative military necessity.”

Barrack chides journalists before news conference, provoking ire

At the start of the joint news conference with U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus, Barrack warned journalists at the presidential palace to be quiet, telling them to “act civilized, act kind, act tolerant.” He threatened to end the conference early otherwise.

“The moment that this starts becoming chaotic, like animalistic, we’re gone,” said Barrack. He then asked: “Do you think this is economically beneficial for Morgan and I to be here putting up with this insanity?”

None of the journalists present responded to his comments but the Lebanese press syndicate issued a statement about the “inappropriate treatment” that the Lebanese journalists were subjected to and called on Barrack and the State Department to apologize. It added that if no apology were made, it could escalate by calling for boycotting Barrack’s visits and meeting.

The Presidential Palace also issued a statement regretting the comments made by “one of our guests” and greeted journalists who cover news at the palace, thanking them for their “hard work.”

Mroue and Chehayeb write for the Associated Press. AP writer Abby Sewell contributed to this report.

PM’s office says the weapons transfer to the Lebanese army marks the start of a wider disarmament campaign.

Lebanon has launched a plan to disarm Palestinian groups in its refugee camps, beginning with the handover of weapons from Burj al-Barajneh camp in Beirut.

The prime minister’s office announced on Thursday that the weapons transfer to the Lebanese army marks the start of a wider disarmament campaign. More handovers are expected in the coming weeks across Burj al-Barajneh and other camps nationwide.

A Fatah official told the Reuters news agency the arms handed over so far were only illegal weapons that had entered the camp within the previous day. Television footage showed military vehicles inside the camp, though Reuters could not verify what type of weapons were being surrendered.

The initiative follows Lebanon’s commitment under a US-backed truce between Israel and Hezbollah in November, which restricted weapons to six state security forces. Since the November 27, 2024, ceasefire agreement, Israel has continued attacking Lebanon, often on a weekly basis.

The government has tasked the army with producing a strategy by the end of the year to consolidate all arms under state authority.

According to the prime minister’s office, the decision to disarm Palestinian factions was reached in a May meeting between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

Both leaders affirmed Lebanon’s sovereignty and insisted that only the state should hold arms. Lebanese and Palestinian officials later agreed on a timeline and mechanism for the handovers.

For decades, Palestinian groups have maintained control inside Lebanon’s 12 refugee camps, which largely operate outside state jurisdiction. The latest initiative is seen as the most serious effort in years to curb the presence of weapons inside the camps.

Palestinian resistance movements grew out of displacement and political exclusion after the creation of Israel in 1948, when some 750,000 Palestinians were forced from their homes.

Over the years, groups including Fatah, Hamas, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) established a presence in Lebanon’s camps to continue armed struggle against Israel.

Palestinian refugees in Lebanon remain without key civil rights, such as access to certain jobs and property ownership. With limited opportunities, many have turned to armed factions for protection or representation.

The disarmament push also comes as Hezbollah faces what analysts describe as its greatest military challenge in decades, following Israeli strikes in 2024 that decimated much of its leadership.

US special envoy Tom Barrack has asked Israel to withdraw from the Lebanese territory after Beirut approved a plan to disarm the Hezbollah group by the end of the year, in exchange for an end to Israeli military attacks on its territory.

“There’s always a step-by-step approach, but I think the Lebanese government has done their part. They’ve taken the first step. Now what we need is Israel to comply with that equal handshake,” Barrack told reporters on Monday, in Lebanon’s capital of Beirut, after meeting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun.

The US-backed plan sets out a four-phase roadmap for the Hezbollah group to hand in their arsenal as Israel’s military halts ground, air and sea operations and withdraws troops from Lebanon’s south.

Lebanon’s cabinet approved the plan on August 7 despite Hezbollah’s outright refusal to disarm, raising fears that Israel could intensify attacks on Lebanon, even while it carries out near-daily violations of the November truce it signed with Hezbollah to end its war.

Israel has continued these attacks against Lebanon even in the weeks since the cabinet approved the plan.

Barrack described the cabinet’s decision as a “Lebanese decision that requires Israel’s cooperation” and said the US was “in the process of now discussing with Israel what their position is” but provided no further details.

Asked by reporters about whether he expected to see Israel fully withdraw from Lebanese territory, the US envoy said “that’s exactly the next step” needed.

“There is cooperation from all sides. We are not here to intimidate anyone. The positive outcomes will benefit Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Israel alike,” he said.

‘An economic proposal’

The US envoy also said Washington would seek an economic proposal for post-war reconstruction in the country, after months of shuttle diplomacy between the US and Lebanon.

Barrack voiced optimism after Monday’s meeting, stating: “A return to prosperity and peace is within reach. I believe we will witness progress in several areas in the coming weeks.”

“This is the first visit of the American envoy to Lebanon after the Lebanese cabinet mandated the Lebanese army to assess how to disarm Hezbollah,” said Al Jazeera’s Ali Hashem, reporting from Beirut.

“However, there are a lot of concerns with respect to how this process is going to happen, given the fact that Hezbollah refused.”

On Friday, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem raised the spectre of civil war, warning there would be “no life” in Lebanon should the state attempt to confront or eliminate the group.

In a written statement after his meeting with Barrack, Aoun said “other parties” now needed to commit to the roadmap’s contents.

Barrack is also set to meet with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Speaker Nabih Berri, who often negotiates on behalf of Hezbollah with Washington.

A ‘return to prosperity and peace’?

Under phase one of the US-backed plan, the Lebanese government is to issue a decision committing to Hezbollah’s full disarmament by the end of the year – which it now has – and Israel will cease military operations in Lebanese territory.

In phase two, Lebanon would begin implementing the disarmament plan within 60 days, and the government would approve troop deployments to the south. Then, Israel would begin withdrawing from the south and releasing Lebanese prisoners.

In phase three, which should happen within 90 days of that, Israel is to withdraw from the last two of the five disputed border positions, and money would be secured for Lebanon’s reconstruction.

In phase four, Hezbollah’s remaining heavy weapons are to be dismantled, and Lebanon’s allies will organise a conference to support the country’s economic recovery.

Hezbollah emerged badly weakened from last year’s 14-month war with Israel, during which longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated in a huge Israeli strike on Beirut. Before the war, Hezbollah was believed to be better armed than the Lebanese military.

The group has long maintained it needs to keep its arsenal to defend Lebanon from attacks, but critics accused it of using its weapons for political leverage.

Hezbollah has said it refuses to discuss its arsenal until Israel ends its attacks and withdraws troops from southern Lebanon. Aoun and Salam both want to disarm Hezbollah and have also demanded Israel halt its attacks and withdraw from the country.

Just on Monday, Israeli attacks blew up a house in the town of Meiss el-Jabal, a sound bomb went off in the border town of Dahra, and drones could be overheard in the towns of Wadi Zefta, al-Numairiyeh and Wadi Kafra, Lebanon’s National News Agency reported.

Aoun said he wants to increase funding for Lebanon’s military and raise money from international donors for post-war reconstruction. The World Bank estimates that the war caused $11bn in damage and economic losses. The country has also faced a crippling economic crisis since 2019.

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Aug. 15 (UPI) — Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem issued a strong warning to the Lebanese government against moving forward with its plan to disarm the Iran-backed militant group, accusing it of acting on orders from the United States and Israel, and threatening that such a move could spark a civil war.

Qassem said his group will not “surrender its weapons” while Israel, which significantly weakened Hezbollah during a 14-month war last year, remains a threat and continues to strike Lebanon, occupy parts of its territories and hold Lebanese prisoners.

“We will fight this as a Karbala-style battle if necessary, confronting this Israeli-American scheme no matter the cost, confident that we will emerge victorious,” he said in a televised speech released Friday.

To Muslim Shiites, Karbala means standing against tyranny, sacrifice and steadfastness in the face of overwhelming odds.

Qassem’s strong warning came after he met with Iran Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani, who visited Beirut on Wednesday, where he heard firm statements from President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam rejecting any interference in their country’s internal affairs.

Larijani tried to play down recent comments by Iranian political and military officials who criticized the Lebanese government for endorsing the objectives of a U.S.-proposed plan to disarm Hezbollah and for tasking the Lebanese Army with developing a strategy to enforce a state monopoly on weapons by the end of the year.

The Iranian officials also maintained that Hezbollah, which has been funded and armed by Iran since its formation in the early 1980s, would never be disarmed.

Qassem said the government took “a very dangerous decision” last week, exposing the country to “a major crisis” and stripping it of “defensive weapons during times of aggression.”

He also accused it of “serving the Israeli agenda” and carrying out “an order” from the U.S. and Israel “to end the resistance, even if that leads to a civil war and internal strife.”

He held the government fully responsible for any sectarian strife, internal explosion, or destruction of Lebanon and warned it against dragging the Army into such an internal conflict.

Qassem, said, however, there “is still an opportunity, room for dialogue and for making adjustments before reaching a confrontation that no one wants.”

He added that Hezbollah was ready for confrontation and that demonstrations will be held across Lebanon, including “heading to the U.S. Embassy,” located in Awkar, north of Beirut.

Hezbollah, which reportedly lost the bulk of its military capabilities in ongoing Israeli airstrikes targeting its positions in southern and eastern Lebanon, accepted the ceasefire accord to stop a war that killed or wounded more than 20,000 people and left border villages in southern Lebanon in ruins.

While it implicitly agreed to discuss its weapons as part of a national defense strategy, the group resisted government efforts to set a timetable for disarming — a key U.S. condition for unlocking much-needed international and Gulf Arab funding to support Lebanon’s reconstruction and economic recovery.

Lebanon’s decision to set a timeline for Hezbollah disarming was mainly motivated by the risk of another devastating war with Israel and of losing well-needed funds to rebuild its war-devastated regions.

“Let us work together to build the country, so that we may all win,” Qassem said. “There is no life for Lebanon if you choose to stand on the opposite side.”

This week’s visit to Lebanon of senior Iranian politician Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, is seen as an attempt to smooth any feathers ruffled by rhetoric from Tehran about Hezbollah’s disarmament.

In early August, the Lebanese government, under pressure from the United States, announced that it would seek to disarm Hezbollah, long considered a principal ally of Tehran, by the end of the year.

The group reacted angrily to the call to disarm with its secretary-general, Naim Qassem, denouncing the idea on Friday and saying the Lebanese government “does not have the right to question the resistance’s legitimacy”.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview last week: “We support any decision the group makes, but we do not intervene.”

“This is not the first time they’ve tried to strip Hezbollah of its weapons,” he said. “The reason is clear: The power of resistance has proven itself in the field.”

His comments were received angrily in Beirut. Foreign Minister Youssef Rajji – who is from the anti-Hezbollah, right-wing Lebanese Forces party – said Araghchi’s statement is “firmly rejected and condemned”.

“Such statements undermine Lebanon’s sovereignty, unity and stability and constitute an unacceptable interference in its internal matters and sovereign decisions,” Rajji said.

Hezbollah and Iran have emerged bruised from separate conflicts with Israel in November and June, respectively. Now, Beirut’s instruction for Hezbollah to disarm risks further undermining the relevance of the group at a critical time, analysts said.

Who decides?

Many analysts believe the decision on whether to retain or relinquish its arms may not be Hezbollah’s alone.

”Hezbollah does not have complete freedom of action in this regard,” HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute told Al Jazeera, referencing the group’s close ties with Iran.

“But it doesn’t act simply as a proxy for Tehran and is in the midst of a rather challenging period of its existence, especially given the surrounding geopolitics of the region,” he said of the regional upheavals since Israel began its war on Gaza in October 2023 and launched subsequent assaults on Lebanon and Syria.

Those assaults inflicted significant damage on Lebanon, principally in the southern Beirut suburbs and southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah’s support base is located.

Lebanon was already locked into an economic crisis before Israel’s war, and the World Bank estimated in May that it would now need $11bn to rebuild. The central government would be responsible for distributing that money, giving it some influence over Hezbollah.

“Tehran will be very opposed to Hezbollah disarming,” Hellyer said. “But if Hezbollah decides it needs to, to preserve its political position, Tehran can’t veto.”

He also suggested that Tehran may see some of its allied groups in Iraq, which Larijani visited before Beirut, more favourably now, especially since the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in December severed its land supply routes to Lebanon.

“Hezbollah is, of course, very important to Iran, but I think the Iraqi militia groups are becoming more so, particularly after the loss of Assad,” Hellyer said.

A threat and a provocation

Hezbollah has long been considered the most powerful nonstate armed actor in the Middle East, a valuable ally for Iran and a nemesis for Israel.

“Hezbollah has always been a threat and a provocation, depending on where you’re standing,“ said Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and an authority on Hezbollah.

“It’s still both, though to a much lesser degree,” he added, noting the damage the group sustained from Israel’s attacks and the assassinations of its leadership in the build-up to and during Israel’s war on Lebanon in October and November.

“It’s clear that Iran wants Hezbollah to remain as it is and, as far as we can tell, is helping it reorganise its ranks.

“It’s also clear from their statements that Hezbollah has no intention of giving up its arms. Even relatively moderate figures within the group are comparing doing so to suicide.”

In his speech on Friday, Qassem’s rejection was unequivocal: “The resistance will not disarm so long as the aggression continues and the occupation persists.

“If necessary, we will fight a Karbala’i battle to confront this Israeli-American project, no matter the costs, and we are certain we will win,” he said, referencing the Battle of Karbala, venerated by Shia Muslims as a foundational battle against tyranny and oppression.

Qassem seemed to exclude the Lebanese military from his ire, warning the government: “Do not embroil the national army in this conflict. … It has a spotless record and does not want [this].”

Inside the tent

Larijani’s visit on Wednesday was seen as a potential opportunity for Beirut to open up new lines of communication with one of the region’s most significant actors, Tehran, and potentially determine what Iran might be willing to consider in return for Hezbollah’s future disarmament.

“It’s not possible for Lebanon to break relations between the Shia community and Iran, any more than it could the Sunni community and Saudi Arabia,” Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center said.

“Iran is a major regional actor. It has a strong relationship with one of [the two] largest communities in the country,” he said of Lebanon’s large Shia community.

“You can’t cut ties. It doesn’t make sense. You want Iranians inside the tent, not outside.”

Given the precarity of Lebanon’s position, balanced between the US support it relies upon and the regional alliances it needs, Young suggested that Lebanese lawmakers nevertheless seek an opportunity to secure some sort of middle ground while accepting that some in Beirut may not be willing to countenance any negotiations with Iran.

“It’s important for the Lebanese to see if there are openings in the Iranian position,” Young continued, casting Larijani’s visit as a potential opportunity for the Lebanese government to influence Iran’s position on Hezbollah’s future.

“And this is something Larijani’s visit, if well exploited, could provide,” he said, “It’s important for the Lebanese to see if the Iranians propose anything in the future or if they show a willingness to compromise on behalf of Hezbollah.”

The security chief’s visit comes after Iran expressed opposition to a government plan to disarm Hezbollah.

Lebanon’s president has told a senior Iranian official that Beirut rejects any interference in its internal affairs and has criticised Tehran’s statements on plans to disarm Hezbollah as “unconstructive”.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council chief Ali Larijani’s visit to Beirut on Wednesday comes a week after the Lebanese government ordered the army to devise plans by the end of 2025 to disarm the Iran-aligned Lebanese armed group.

Iran expressed opposition to the plan to disarm Hezbollah, which before a war with Israel last year was believed to be better armed than the Lebanese military.

“It is forbidden for anyone … to bear arms and to use foreign backing as leverage,” Aoun told Larijani, according to a statement from the Lebanese presidency posted on X.

Larijani responded to Aoun by stating that Iran does not interfere in Lebanese decision-making, and that foreign countries should not give orders to Lebanon.

“Any decision taken by the Lebanese government in consultation with the resistance is respected by us,” he said after separate talks with Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, whose Amal Movement is an ally of Hezbollah.

“Iran didn’t bring any plan to Lebanon, the US did. Those intervening in Lebanese affairs are those dictating plans and deadlines”, said Larijani.

He said Lebanon should not “mix its enemies with its friends – your enemy is Israel, your friend is the resistance”.

Larijani further added that Lebanon should appreciate Hezbollah, and its “value of resistance”.

Reporting from Beirut, Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr said Larijani appeared to have softened his language on the visit.

“Ali Larijani has been using more diplomatic language than … a few days ago [when] he was blunt that Iran opposes the Lebanese government’s decision to disarm Hezbollah.”

“He said that Iran’s policy is about friendly cooperation, not giving orders and timetables, so he was referring to the United States, the US envoy, which presented a plan to end tensions with Israel, and that plan involves disarming Hezbollah [on] a four-month timetable.”

A ‘state-by-state’ relationship

Dozens of Hezbollah supporters gathered along the airport road to welcome Larijani on Wednesday morning. He briefly stepped out of his car to greet them as they chanted slogans.

“If … the Lebanese people are suffering, we in Iran will also feel this pain and we will stand by the dear people of Lebanon in all circumstances,” Larijani told reporters shortly after landing in Beirut.

The Iranian official is also scheduled to meet Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, as well as Berri, who is close to Hezbollah.

Iran has suffered a series of blows in its long-running rivalry with Israel, including during 12 days of open war between the two countries in June.

Hezbollah, meanwhile, was weakened during the war with Israel, which ended in a November 2024 ceasefire that Israel continues to violate.

The new Lebanese government, backed by the United States, has moved to further restrain the group.

“What the new Lebanese leadership wants is a state-by-state relationship, not like in the past where …  the Iranians would be dealing with Hezbollah and not [with] the Lebanese state,” said Khodr.

Hezbollah has called the government’s disarmament decision a “grave sin”.

Khodr said the tensions have sparked concern about potential unrest in the country.

Hezbollah is part of Iran’s so-called “axis of resistance” – a network of aligned armed groups in the region, including Hamas in Gaza and Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who oppose Israel.