GuineaBissau

The military has seized power in Guinea-Bissau, a day before Sunday’s presidential election results were due to be announced.

The African Union and West African regional bloc ECOWAS have condemned the coup.

Why has it happened and what are the implications?

Presenter: Dareen Abughaida

Guests:

Kabir Adamu – Managing director of Beacon Security and Intelligence

Bram Posthumus – Political and economic analyst specialising in West Africa and the Sahel region

Ovigwe Eguegu – Peace and security policy analyst at the consultancy Development Reimagined

Conflicting claims come before the release of official results by the country’s electoral commission.

The two leading candidates in Guinea-Bissau’s presidential election – incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embalo and main challenger Fernando Dias – have both declared victory before the release of official results.

Both campaigns had claimed on Monday that their contender exceeded the 50 percent threshold needed to win outright, eliminating the need for a run-off.

“We have won the presidential race. We will not have a second round,” Dias told supporters in the capital, Bissau, adding that people were “tired” and wanted change.

Hours later, Embalo’s campaign spokesperson Oscar Barbosa also claimed the president had won outright, insisting there would be no run-off and calling on rivals to avoid making claims that undermine the electoral process.

There was no immediate comment by the National Electoral Commission, which is expected to announce provisional results on Thursday, regarding the conflicting claims.

Twelve candidates competed in Sunday’s poll that saw a turnout of more than 65 percent.

The African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC), the movement that led the fight against Portuguese colonial rule, was barred from fielding a candidate for the first time.

The party endorsed Dias, boosting his campaign, especially after former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira, the PAIGC leader, backed him. The 47-year-old is standing with the Party for Social Renewal.

Embalo, 53, is a former army general who served as prime minister from 2016 to 2018. He is seeking to become Guinea-Bissau’s first president in 30 years to win a second term.

Opposition parties argue that Embalo’s mandate should have ended earlier this year. The Supreme Court ruled that his term should run until early September, but the election was pushed back to November.

Embalo dissolved parliament, which was controlled by the opposition after the 2019 and 2023 legislative elections, and has not allowed it to sit since December 2023.

Guinea-Bissau has experienced repeated coups and attempted coups since its independence more than 50 years ago, and remains one of the world’s poorest countries, with half the population living in poverty, according to the World Bank.

More than 200 international observers were in the country to monitor the electoral process, including from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS, the African Union and the community of Portuguese-speaking countries.

President Umaro Sissoco Embalo wants a second term and is challenged by a relatively unknown candidate who is backed by a former prime minister.

Voting stations are open in Guinea-Bissau, where the government has been afflicted by repeated coup attempts and where President Umaro Sissoco Embalo is seeking a rare second term in office amid fierce backlash from the opposition.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to vote on Sunday as the West African country faces a challenging election in a region where civilian administration has been undermined by military rulers who have taken power by force over the past several years.

The winner needs more than 50 percent of the votes, or there will be a run-off election. Nearly half of the country’s 2.2 million residents are registered to vote.

There are 12 candidates, but the main race is believed to be between the president and Fernando Dias da Costa, a little-known 47-year-old who is backed by former Prime Minister Domingos Simoes Pereira.

Pereira, the runner-up in the 2019 presidential election, leads the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde, but the politician and the top opposition party have been banned from taking part in Sunday’s election.

Embalo, 53, is a former army general who has served as president since February 2020. He was also the prime minister between November 2016 and January 2018.

The barred opposition maintains that Embalo’s term should have ended earlier this year, and the Supreme Court previously ruled that it should run until early September. The election was delayed until November.

Embalo dissolved the parliament, which was dominated by opposition figures in legislative elections held in 2019 and 2023, and has not allowed it to convene since December 2023.

He has promised to develop the small country’s infrastructure and modernise its main airport, among other things.

But Guinea-Bissau remains one of the world’s impoverished countries, with half its population considered poor, according to the World Bank.

The country has experienced numerous coups and attempted coups since its independence from Portugal more than 50 years ago.

There have been at least two attempts since Embalo took power. The latest was at the end of October, when the country’s army announced that a group of military officers had been arrested for allegedly planning a coup.