fastball velocity

For both the Dodgers and San Diego Padres, the assignment over the next few weeks figured to be simple:

Take care of business and beat the teams you’re supposed to.

After all, the Dodgers are beginning a stretch of 15 straight games against clubs below .500. The Padres, meanwhile, will play 13 of their next 16 games against opponents with losing records, the lone exception being the 68-67 Cincinnati Reds.

It appeared to be an opportunity for each contender to stack up wins, build late-season momentum and try to wrest away control of a division race that the Dodgers currently lead by two games.

The only problem: They both flunked their first test on Friday.

Beating the bad teams, it turns out, isn’t always as easy as it seems.

In Los Angeles, the Dodgers suffered a lackluster 3-0 loss to the underperforming Arizona Diamondbacks, managing just three hits and getting only one runner in scoring position en route to suffering their seventh shutout this season. The Padres, meanwhile, were knocked around by the tanking Minnesota Twins in a 7-4 defeat earlier in the evening.

It meant, for one night, the standings remained static.

Instead of catapulting themselves into exceedingly soft portions of their schedules, both teams stumbled to equally disappointing results.

At Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers’ loss snapped their four-game winning streak — halting their recent upswing both on the mound and at the plate.

Starting pitcher Blake Snell gave up three runs in 5⅓ innings and battled through a stark drop in fastball velocity. After entering the night averaging 95.4 mph with his heater, Snell was stuck closer to 93 mph in his first start since the birth of his second child last weekend.

“I had a busy week, man. A lot going on,” Snell said of his velocity drop. “I’m not worried about [it]. I know what’s going on. So it’ll come back. I’m zero worried about it. I mean, I was aware of it. But I’m not gonna push it. It is what it is. It’s what I had today. Just gotta be better.”

Dodgers pitcher Blake Snell delivers in the first inning Friday against the Diamondbacks.

(Carlin Stiehl / Los Angeles Times)

Though he struck out eight batters and allowed only four hits, one of them was costly: a two-run home run by Blaze Alexander in the fourth, on a fastball over the plate that clocked in at only 93.4 mph. Snell’s night ended after two more knocks brought in a third run in the sixth, with Corbin Carroll hitting a leadoff double and scoring on Gabriel Moreno’s RBI single.

The bigger problem for the Dodgers (77-58), however, was their offense.

Arizona starter Zac Gallen entered the night in the midst of a dismal contract season, beginning play with a 5.13 earned-run average despite improved form in August. Against the Dodgers, though, he was lights out, yielding only two hits in six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and three walks.

“We just obviously couldn’t figure anything out,” manager Dave Roberts said. “We just really couldn’t put anything together all night long.”

Indeed, even more troublesome was the Dodgers’ inability to generate much against the Diamondbacks’ bullpen — a woebegone unit that has spoiled Arizona’s playoff aspirations by ranking 26th in the majors with a 4.73 ERA.

Andy Pages managed a two-out single in the seventh but was left stranded. After that, the Dodgers’ only other baserunner came on a walk from Teoscar Hernández in the game’s penultimate at-bat.

“This was the first one in a while … that we’ve seen sort of a lackluster performance,” Roberts said, his club unable to extend its momentum after a sweep of the Reds. “Obviously you’ve got to give credit to Gallen, too. But it was one of those nights that I just didn’t see the at-bats that we’ve been seeing the last week.”

Of course, things didn’t go much better for the Padres (75-60) on Friday, either.

Before their game in Minnesota, the team announced that shortstop Xander Bogaerts was going on the injured list with a foot fracture, which could keep him out for the rest of the regular season. Then, Nestor Cortes followed up his six shutout innings against the Dodgers last week with a three-inning, three-run clunker that was punctuated with an ejection.

The night served as a missed opportunity for both NL West pace-setters; the Padres squandering a chance to cut the Dodgers’ two-game lead in half, only for the Dodgers to whiff on an opening to grow their lead at the top of the standings.

And in the coming days and weeks, both clubs will have to try to take care of business better. Because with no head-to-head matchups left between the Dodgers and Padres in the regular season, beating bad teams — and avoiding ugly losses like Friday’s — could dictate who ultimately wins the division.

“We’ve got to play well,” Roberts said. “Whether it’s the schedule or a tougher opponent, I don’t really think it matters. We got to go out and play good baseball and take good at-bats and just stack wins.”

Freeman, Call back in action

Despite the loss, the Dodgers did get good news on the injury front Friday, with both first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Alex Call back in action after missing Wednesday’s game.

Freeman had been battling a neck stinger, but returned to the starting lineup and drew a walk in an otherwise 0-for-3 performance. Call avoided an IL stint after having a flare-up in his back on Tuesday, and came off the bench as a pinch-hitter for a groundout in the seventh.

Like pretty much every other time the Dodgers have found themselves in a self-made mess, the task of downplaying a major problem once again was made the responsibility of manager Dave Roberts.

So, in the aftermath of a deflating 11-1 defeat by the Oakland Athletics on Tuesday night, Roberts trudged into the interview room at Dodger Stadium and applied a good old Stan Kasten spin to Roki Sasaki’s move to the 15-day injured list.

The point relayed by Roberts was basically this: Sasaki underwhelmed in his eight major league starts because of a shoulder pain that he kept secret from the Dodgers “for the last weeks,” and not because the 23-year-old rookie right-hander wasn’t as good as they previously thought.

“He hasn’t been as productive as he would have liked because he was compromised,” said Roberts, who added that Sasaki revealed his condition to the team after his most recent start.

The explanation raised an equally alarming possibility, however.

If Roberts’ story was accurate, and Sasaki experienced a shoulder impingement to the one that slowed him down last year in Japan, wouldn’t that point to a chronic problem?

As it was, Sasaki was already viewed as a high injury risk. He never remained healthy for an entire season with the Chiba Lotte Marines.

At this point, what’s worse? That Sasaki’s lack of control and decline in fastball velocity were because of a chronic shoulder issue? Or because he just was too raw to compete in the major leagues?

Either scenario would be problematic.

So, what now?

As much as the Dodgers sold Sasaki on how they could one day guide him to a Cy Young Award, his future isn’t their only priority. They also have to consider what’s best for their team, which is positioned to become baseball’s first repeat champion in a quarter century.

Even if the Dodgers acknowledge that Sasaki is more of a long-term project than a short-term solution and want to send him to the minor leagues when he returns, they might not have the luxury of doing so. They have signed four potential frontline pitchers in the last two years, and three of them are currently on the injured list — Sasaki, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. The other, two-way player Shohei Ohtani, isn’t expected to pitch until after the All-Star break.

Snell was examined by a team doctor on Tuesday but the team didn’t provide any details about his condition. Glasnow played catch but Roberts didn’t provide a timeline for his return.

The rotation is in such a state of ruin that not only were the Dodgers forced to start Landon Knack on Tuesday, they were desperately awaiting the return of 37-year-old Clayton Kershaw four days later.

Roberts described Sasaki’s injury as “benign” but didn’t say when he might resume throwing. The manager insisted there were no thoughts of sending him to the minors, despite Sasaki posting a 4.72 earned-run average and completing six innings in just one start.

“I think our goal is to get him healthy, get him strong, make sure his delivery is sound for him to pitch for us,” Roberts said.

In other words, Sasaki will return to the mound in the major leagues. He will have to gain familiarity with low-quality American baseballs in the major leagues. He will have to become more comfortable with the pitch clock in the major leagues. He will have to strengthen his body to prevent future injuries in the major leagues. He will have to learn to throw something other than a fastball, forkball and slider in the major leagues.

The Dodgers knew Sasaki would require an adjustment period but they couldn’t have imagined anything this drastic.

The introductory news conference they staged for Sasaki in January was matched in scale in recent years only by Ohtani’s and Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s. That was where president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman declared Sasaki would start the season in the Dodgers’ rotation and general manager Brandon Gomes compared him to Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Back then, the Dodgers’ plan for Sasaki was simple: Insert him into the rotation and watch him develop into one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Sasaki can still become everything the Dodgers envisioned, but his path to greatness has become infinitely more complicated. Roberts remained characteristically upbeat, saying Sasaki concealed his shoulder problems from the team not because he was selfish but because he didn’t want to let down an injury-ravaged team.

“He’s a great teammate,” Roberts said.

With his rotation crumbling, Roberts didn’t have the luxury of viewing the situation any other way.

In the Tokyo Dome in March, you could almost hear the zip of the ball.

101 mph.

The pop of the catcher’s mitt sounded like a gunshot.

100 mph.

Roki Sasaki would lift his left leg almost to his head, stretch far down the front side of the mound, and let out a grunt as a blur of white leather came screaming from his hand.

100 mph.

For a brief moment, at the very start of his Major League Baseball career, it seemed like the Japanese phenom pitching prospect had already achieved one of his most important rookie objectives.

100 mph.

During his MLB debut in Japan, Sasaki hit those 100-plus-mph velocities on each of his first four big-league pitches. In the first inning of that March 19 game against the Chicago Cubs, he eclipsed 99 mph eight times in a 1-2-3 frame.

For a developing young pitcher who came to the majors this offseason fixated on improving his fastball speeds, it was a promising early sign — an apparent indication that, after suffering a slight drop in fastball velo during his last season in Japan, the 6-foot-4 flamethrower still possessed triple-digit life.

“The velocity,” manager Dave Roberts said that day, “was good.”

Roki Sasaki’s first four pitches of his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs at the Tokyo Dome in March were at least 100 mph. He has not reached that velocity since.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Almost two months later, however, in one of the more confounding developments of the Dodgers’ otherwise successful start to the season, Sasaki hasn’t come close to even flirting with 100 mph again.

Instead, over a choppy seven-game sample following the team’s return from Japan, Sasaki has struggled to consistently throw the ball hard, averaging just 96 mph with his four-seamer on the whole this season while sometimes dropping down to the 92-93 mph range.

“It’s not an ideal situation,” pitching coach Mark Prior said. “Clearly, the fastball is not gonna carry through the zone at 93 very effectively.”

For some pitchers, this wouldn’t be as pressing a problem. Even in an era of rising fastball velocities around the sport, sitting in the mid-90s is still safely above the major-league average.

Sasaki, however, needs premium velocity (plus consistent command) to make his heater competitive. Because, for all his other raw natural talent, there isn’t much natural deception to the pitch.

Unlike the best fastballs in the sport, Sasaki doesn’t throw his four-seamer with much spin or “vertical break” (pitch characteristics that can give fastballs a rising illusion as they barrel toward the plate). While others can miss bats at even below-average pitch speeds, Sasaki’s four-seamer has a flatter shape that’s easier to hit.

As a result, his fastball has always been predicated on eye-popping velocity — requiring elite radar-gun readings to blow opponents away.

“The velocity allows for that margin of error,” Prior said last week. “And clearly, that’s not there [right now].”

In evaluating Sasaki’s underwhelming start to the season — he has a 4.72 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in his first eight starts, logging just 34 ⅓ innings with only 24 strikeouts and a whopping 22 walks — the most glaring red flag has been the performance of his fastball.

So far, his trademark splitter has been an effective weapon, yielding just a .158 batting average to opponents while generating whiffs on 35% of swings. His lesser-used slider has been a fine secondary option, with opponents batting just three-for-12 against it while coming up empty on 33% of swings.

Sasaki’s fastball, on the other hand, has been susceptible to the improved level of hitting he has faced in the big leagues, resulting in a .253 opponent batting average, a .494 slugging percentage, almost as many home runs allowed (six, not even including two others that were robbed on leaping catches by Andy Pages) as strikeouts generated (eight), and a 10.1% whiff rate that ranks fifth-lowest for four-seamers among qualified MLB starters.

Granted, Sasaki’s lack of command has factored into such struggles, leaving him all too often in unfavorable hitter’s counts where opponents are better primed to square up mistakes.

“I think guys are on his fastball because it’s the one thing that’s probably in the zone more than anything,” Prior said. “This goes back to his ability to throw the other pitches for strikes, and be able to mix, probably balance with all three.”

Still, since that adrenaline-fueled debut in his home country, Sasaki hasn’t thrown even one fastball that has topped 99 mph. In that same span, he has chucked 27 that failed to eclipse 94 mph. Each week, his declining fastball velocity has become a bigger conversation point around his outings. But so far, few answers have materialized about how he can fix it.

“Just really still in this process of finding out what the root cause [is],” Sasaki said through interpreter Will Ireton this past weekend, after the Arizona Diamondbacks teed off on a heater that averaged 94.9 mph in a four-inning, five-run start that represented his worst outing of the year.

“[I’m] working with my coaches, talking to people about this,” Sasaki added. “I’m not quite exactly sure and can’t really state exactly the single reason.”

The Dodgers’ coaching staff has faced the same conundrum this year, struggling to identify exactly why an element so critical to Sasaki’s success — fastball velocity was such a point of emphasis during Sasaki’s free agency this winter, he gave interested clubs a “homework assignment” about how they planned to improve it — has been so far from advertised during the start of his rookie season.

Prior acknowledged that there are “clearly some delivery things” that Sasaki is “still trying to work through” right now. After struggling with wild command in his first few appearances, Sasaki and the team also discussed whether slightly dialing back on the intensity of his throws could help him more consistently locate pitches over the plate.

Mechanics alone, however, don’t explain why Sasaki’s fastball has dropped into the low 90s for some stretches of the year, Prior countered.

And though Sasaki’s command has somewhat improved while throwing with less velocity, both he and Prior insisted his velo hasn’t dropped this far on purpose.

“For us, it’s always been like, ‘If it’s 100 or if it’s 98, that’s fine, if it’s easier to control or something like that.’ We had that conversation,” Prior said. “But nothing to the degree of where it’s been.”

Given that Sasaki has shown no signs of any physical ailment, it’s possible he could be experiencing more of a pitch conviction issue in his new MLB surroundings, potentially lacking the internal confidence to let his fastball consistently rip at top speeds.

“We go back to the drawing board every week with him. We try to talk to him about some certain things, some ideas,” Prior said. “But ultimately, he’s working through his process, and we’re just trying to support him with everything we can.”

To this point, that process has not involved the addition of a different fastball variety more apt at generating soft contact, such as a two-seamer or cutter. Sasaki has said repeatedly that his primary goal is to first refine his primary fastball-splitter arsenal.

“There’s been a lot of conversations about a lot of different things,” Prior said. “Again, we go every week with him, and we’ve been trying to shed light on things where we think there’s gonna be some improvement. But ultimately, again, I think it’s just him trying to get his footing under him, and be comfortable in what he’s doing.”

Indeed, the Dodgers continue to argue that this is all part of Sasaki’s long-term development arc — inevitable growing pains for a superstar who, despite all the hoopla that surrounded his signing, arrived in the majors as an admitted work in progress.

“He’s certainly talented,” Roberts said. “But there’s finishing school. That’s something that we were prepared for. I know it’s harder for him to embrace not having complete success, but this is a tough league.”

When Sasaki’s fastball has ticked up, he’s gotten results, too. On heaters thrown at 97 mph or above, opponents are batting just .133 with a .333 slugging percentage, and swinging-and-missing almost twice as often.

“He will make adjustments given how the hitters respond,” Roberts said. “I think you learn that by doing that here.”

But until that happens, and Sasaki’s fastball starts returning to the upper 90s or 100-mph levels he flashed in Japan, more struggles could lie ahead. More growing pains might have to be endured.