75% of global coffee supply faces rising extreme heat, analysis says
Climate Central’s researchers found in a new analysis that heat threatens coffee harvests and coincides with recent record highs in prices. File Photo by Fully Handoko/EPA
Feb. 18 (UPI) — An analysis by Climate Central found that the world’s five largest coffee-producing countries, which account for 75% of global supply, are experiencing an average of 57 additional days of extreme heat per year due to climate change.
Its researchers found that heat threatens coffee harvests and coincides with recent record highs in prices.
Climate Central, based in Princeton, N.J., is an independent group of scientists and communicators who research and report the facts about climate change and how it affects people’s lives.
The analysis, released Wednesday, examined daily temperatures between 2021 and 2025 in 25 countries that represent 97% of global production. The report concluded that all of them recorded more days of harmful heat as a result of environmental warming attributed to greenhouse gas emissions.
The two main varieties that supply the global market are arabica and robusta.
Arabica accounts for between 60% and 70% of global supply and is grown mainly in mountainous regions of Latin America and Africa, where moderate temperatures have historically prevailed.
Robusta, which is more heat-tolerant but has a stronger flavor, is produced largely in Southeast Asian countriesm such as Vietnam and Indonesia.
Coffee is cultivated in a tropical belt stretching across Latin America, Africa and Southeast Asia, where it requires specific temperature ranges and consistent rainfall.
Temperatures above 86 degrees F are considered extremely harmful for arabica and suboptimal for robusta, as they reduce yields and can affect bean quality.
The analysis was published after a period in which the planet recorded the warmest years since modern measurements began, with episodes of extreme heat in Latin America.
According to Climate Central, this warming increased the frequency of days exceeding the critical 86-degree threshold in coffee-growing regions.
Brazil, the world’s largest producer and responsible for nearly 37% of global supply, experienced an average of 70 additional days per year with temperatures above 86 degrees. In Minas Gerais, its main coffee-producing state, 67 of these extra days were recorded.
Colombia, the world’s third-largest producer and one of the leading exporters of arabica coffee, recorded 48 additional days per year above the critical threshold. The increase threatens productivity and bean quality, the foundation of its international competitiveness.
Some of the sharpest increases were observed in Central America. El Salvador recorded 99 additional days of extreme heat per year and Nicaragua 77, according to the report.
“Nearly all major producing countries are now experiencing more days of extreme heat that can damage plants, reduce yields and affect quality,” said Kristina Dahl, vice president for science at Climate Central.
“Over time, these impacts can extend from farms to consumers, directly affecting the quality and cost of their daily coffee.”
According to the World Bank, its beverage price index rose 58% in 2024 and in December remained approximately 91% higher than a year earlier, driven by increases in coffee and cocoa amid supply concerns.
In December, the price of arabica coffee rose 13% compared with the previous month and more than 60% year over year, while robusta more than doubled compared with the same period the previous year.
