destroyed

New images have emerged that appear to show the destroyed special operations C-130s (MC-130Js Commando IIs) at the forward improvised airfield in Iran. The austere operating location acted as a hub (and forward arming and refueling point or FARP) for the rescue mission of the downed F-15E Weapon System Officer. You can read our latest coverage on the rescue here. It has been reported that the two C-130s were demolished in place as they were incapable of departing, with three more aircraft coming in and extracting the special operations force. Amongst this wreckage appears to be two burned-out wrecks of MH-6/AH-6 Little Birds of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment, better known as the Night Stalkers.

As is typically the case, the images of the crash site look authentic after a cursory examination, but that could change in the future.

These helicopters, if in AH-6 configuration, were likely delivered to the landing site to provide close air support and force protection for the larger force deployed there. Reports now state that there may not have been a major firefight on the ground as originally reported, but Iranians were fired upon from the air when trying to approach the base. Video supposedly showing one of these engagements does look like the firing aircraft could be an AH-6.

The Little Birds could have also been used to help find and support the extraction of the pilot if in MH-6 configuration. Little Birds can be configured in the AH-6 attack and MH-6 assault configurations.

The force protection role for exactly this kind of mission is a key one for the AH-6. Night Stalker AH-6 crews train heavily for it. The Little Birds can be rapidly delivered to forward locations aboard aircraft as small as a C-130, but it’s their ability to be rolled out and flying in mere minutes that suits them so well for this mission set. The MC-130 can act as transport, weapons hauler and a gas station on the ground for the Little Birds.

You can read all about the Little Bird’s ability to be rapidly deployed virtually anywhere in our past feature linked here.

The Little Birds could possibly have flown directly to the site, and then refueled from MC-130J on the ground and operated out of the makeshift base, although the range on these aircraft is limited, even with auxiliary fuel tanks. Even flying from Kuwait or a commercial ship in the northern Persian Gulf, a direct flight over Iranian airspace would have been very risky and required much of the Little Bird’s range. Overall, this option seems very likely.

As to why the Little Birds were destroyed in place, that isn’t clear. Extracting the force was likely done in a big hurry, especially due to the immobilization of two C-130s. If the Little Birds flew in aboard them, there may have been no time (or room) to load them onto the replacement aircraft. They could have also been damaged by enemy fire. If they flew in directly themselves, the mission may not have gone as planned and they could not be fueled while on the ground by the stricken MC-130s. There are many possibilities.

Destroying stranded special operations aircraft is absolutely critical as they are packed with sensitive sensors, communications, defensive systems and more.

Regardless, the inclusion of the Little Birds is another indication of just how complex this mission, which was thrown together in just a matter of hours, was. It’s also a reminder of just how versatile and forward deployable the MH/AH-6s truly are.

UPDATE: 6:02 AM PDT—

The landing zone has been geolocated to just south of Isfahan. This puts it about 200 miles from the Iranian coastline and roughly 230 miles from a land border. It is very unlikely the Little Birds made this trip on their own (can rule it out almost entirely) beyond the tactical issues with doing so.

Info is slowly dripping out as to the extent of the Iranian attack on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia that occurred on March 27th. Multiple U.S. military aircraft are reported to have been damaged. This is beyond the toll on U.S. service members, which sits at 10 injured, some of critically. While high-resolution commercial satellite imagery of the Middle East from U.S. companies remains delayed for weeks, foreign satellite images purport to show major damage on the base’s main apron. Now, photos from ground level appears to show one of the USAF’s prizedE-3 Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft totally destroyed.

The images were first posted on the Air Force amn/nco/snco Facebook page and has since spread across social media. The photos show E-3 serial #81-0005’s rear fuselage totally burned out and destroyed. There is debris all around the aircraft. It’s worth noting that a direct strike, while certainly possible here, is often not required to destroy an aircraft. The shrapnel from a nearby impact can and especially if a fire is ignited. The attack reportedly included long-range one-way attack drones and ballistic missiles.

It’s important to note that we cannot confirm the authenticity of the images at this time, but they appear, at least after a cursory examination, to look authentic. This assessment could change and we will update this post if it does.

Satellite imagery from prior to when major U.S. commercial providers, specifically Plant Labs, began delaying photos of the Middle East, shows aircraft parked across the main apron and other high-value assets, like the E-3s, parked on isolated taxiways around the airfield. This is clearly an attempt to minimize damage from Iranian long-range weapons by spreading out the aircraft. It’s very possible these aircraft were shuffled around in order to make targeting more challenging.

At least five other tankers were also damaged in a strike on Prince Sultan Air Base earlier in the conflict. The installation, which sits outside of Riyadh, has come under repeated attack. It is a major operating location for American aircraft supporting the war effort.

The loss of an E-3 Sentry is a major development. The aircraft are critical for spotting incoming barrages and coordinating the air war. The U.S. sent six to the Middle East prior to the war beginning and additional airborne early assets may be headed that way, if they are not already in theater now. The U.S. only had 16 E-3s remaining, with the rickety fleet nearly cut in half as it struggles to maintain readiness in its old age. With low availability, far fewer than the 16 that remain in service are ready to operate at any given time.

The USAF wanted to migrate much of the airborne early warning tracking duties to a new space sensing layer, but that technology is still years away from operational maturity. The E-7 Wedgetail was ordered to provide an interim bridge solution to augment the E-3s and eventually take their place until a space sensing layer can take on at least most of the mission. The USAF then tried to cut the E-7 in its last budget and procure a handful of E-2D Hawkeyes as a less expensive interim solution. This bizarre move, which would have led to massive capability gaps at a time of increasing airborne early warning and control demand, has since been heavily disputed by congress and now the USAF’s E-7 program appears that it could be headed back on track. Still, the loss of one of the E-3s in a dwindling fleet, and now a delay in the already late to the party E-7 program, puts the U.S. in an increasingly concerning predicament.

Iran has been somewhat successful at targeting key radar installations around the region that enable America and its allies’ air defenses. The fact that they would target an E-3 should come as absolutely no surprise. As for how they acquired the targeting data, satellite imagery is still available from China and Russia is likely providing them imagery as well. There are many other ways to obtain time critical info like where aircraft are parked on a base that is from far far lower tech sources, including classic human intelligence.

The potential loss of the E-3 and possibly other aircraft in this attack, as well as others that have occurred in the war, on top of very troubling events back here at home, highlight the dire need for hardened airbase infrastructure. The Pentagon continues to drag its feet and downplay the need to invest in hardened aircraft shelters, even as the risk to aircraft on the ground has been made glaringly apparent by recent conflicts. There are signs this could possibly change, even if to a small degree, but there doesn’t seem to be much urgency behind doing so.

It also comes at a time when America’s most capable adversaries are dumping large sums of money into protecting their aircraft on the ground. Even in the Pacific, where a major war could break out with a near-peer competitor that is armed to the teeth with long-range weaponry, these improvements have been nearly non-existent. Only now, after Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, America’s largest in the region, has been repeatedly attacked during the war with Iran, has the Pentagon budged at exploring hardening some of its infrastructure there.

We will update this post when we find out more.

Contact the author: Tyler@twz.com

Joint attacks by the United States and Israel have severely reduced Iran’s capacity to fire missiles and drones, experts say, but Iran retains enough capabilities to inflict significant damage.

“Iran’s ballistic missile capacity is functionally destroyed. Their navy assessed combat ineffective. Complete and total aerial dominance over Iran,” the White House said on Saturday. “Operation Epic Fury is yielding massive results,” it said in reference to the war launched by Israel and the US on February 28.

On Sunday, President Donald Trump said US forces had decimated Iran’s drone manufacturing capacity.

Still, on Monday afternoon, Qatar announced it had intercepted the latest in a series of missiles fired from Iran towards the country. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain also issued alerts. A missile landed on a car in Abu Dhabi, killing a person.

So are Iran’s missile capabilities severely reduced? And how is it still firing projectiles at its neighbours and Israel?

Is Iran firing fewer missiles now?

Indeed, the number of retaliatory missiles and drones that Iran has fired towards Gulf countries, Israel and other nations in the region has seen a steep decline since the start of the war.

In the first 24 hours of the conflict, Iran had fired 167 missiles (ballistic and cruise) and 541 drones at the United Arab Emirates, for instance. By contrast, on day 15 of the conflict, it had shot four missiles and six drones, according to a tally compiled by Al Jazeera based on the emirate’s Defence Ministry statements.

The barrage against Israel has also decreased, from nearly 100 projectiles over the first two days to a single-digit number in the past few days, according to Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies.

Last week, the Pentagon said missile launches were down 90 percent from the first day of fighting and drone attacks were down by 86 percent.

How big is Iran’s missile arsenal – and how much has it been hit?

Iran has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence assessed in 2022. While there are no official accounts on how many missiles it has, Israeli intelligence reports suggest it counted around 3,000 missiles, a figure that dropped to 2,500 following the 12-day war last June.

Key to the US-Israel strategy has been hunting down Iran’s launchers. Each missile launch generates a signature, such as a large explosion, that can be picked up by a satellite and radar systems.

According to a senior Israeli military official cited by the Institute for the Study of the War, Israel has put up to 290 launchers out of service, out of an estimated 410 to 440 launchers.

But Iran is a vast country, and without boots on the ground, it will be hard to completely eliminate Iran’s capacity to shoot despite the US and Israel having nearly full control of the country’s airspace, said David Des Roches, an associate professor at the National Defense University in Washington, DC.

“It is not obvious to identify launchers,” Des Roches told Al Jazeera. “What we see are missiles that were put in hidden places or places not associated with the military before the war, when there was less observation”.

According to Des Roches, the slowdown in launches is due to Iranian forces having lost the capacity to launch volleys. As a result, Iran has been firing one or two missiles at a time towards civilian and commercial infrastructure, especially in Gulf countries, instead of aiming volleys at military targets. Iran insists that it is targeting only US interests in the region.

“Militarily speaking [Iran’s action] is not significant – this is what is called harassment fire to exhaust alert systems in nearby countries and scare people off,” Des Roches said.

What’s Iran’s strategy?

According to Hamidreza Azizi, an expert on Iran and visiting fellow with the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWB), Tehran’s central calculation is that the Gulf and Israel may run out of their defensive capabilities before Iran runs out of missiles.

“There might be some interest in making this a war of attrition,” he said, pointing at the lower, yet constant, number of weapons launched from Iran each day.

“Although the US and Israel have been successful in taking out some of the launchers and major missile bases, the Iranians have decentralised the missile bases and missile command and they have been increasingly relying on mobile launchers which makes it more difficult for the other side to detect and target,” Azizi said. “This is a race about time.”

And in that race, Iran believes it has a chance, say experts.

“It does not matter how many you launch as long as you maintain a credible threat,” Muhanad Seloom, an assistant professor in critical security studies at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, told Al Jazeera. “It takes one successful drone to shatter a sense of security.”

Iran has long experience in producing cheap yet effective drones. The Shahed 136 can be made quickly and in large numbers in relatively simple factories, and several of them can be fired at once, overwhelming defences. It also doesn’t need complex launchers that can be targeted in air strikes. With a speed of just 185km/h (115mph), Shaheds can be shot down by helicopters. Still, many have managed to get through US and Gulf air defence systems.

Just on Monday, a fire broke out near the UAE’s Dubai International Airport in a drone-related incident that temporarily disrupted flights; another drone attack caused a fire at the Fujairah industrial area, also in the UAE; air sirens sounded in central Israel due to a missile fired from Iran; and in the Strait of Hormuz – a key waterway through which 20 percent of global energy supplies are shipped – hundreds of vessels remain paralysed over fear of being struck despite few attacks on ships. Since the start of the war, a maritime tracker has reported 20 incidents related to vessels.

This, say experts, is part of Iran’s defensive doctrine of asymmetric warfare against militarily superior powers, such as the US and Israel. The weaker party, Iran in this case, turns to unconventional methods of warfare, wearing down the enemy by targeting key infrastructure to inflict economic pain.

Tehran has already pushed oil prices to higher than $100 a barrel and sent global markets into panic mode. The second-biggest exporter of natural gas, Qatar, continues to keep shut its production; Bahrain’s state oil company has declared force majeure on its shipments, and oil production from Iraq’s main southern ⁠oilfields has plunged 70 percent.

If Iran can keep raising global oil prices, “it will inflict equal or more damage to the US than American bombs in Iran,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University.