bond

Published on
14/05/2026 – 14:35 GMT+2

Long-term US borrowing costs climbed to levels not seen since before the global financial crisis after the Treasury auctioned $25bn (€21.3bn) in 30-year bonds at a high yield of 5.058% on Wednesday, according to the department’s own data.

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The sale came only hours after the US Senate voted to confirm former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh as the next chairman, succeeding Jerome Powell.

The auction result immediately complicated the backdrop for Warsh’s arrival at the central bank, underlining the pressure facing policymakers as inflation is rising.

At the time of writing on Thursday, US 30-year bonds are trading at 5.02% while 10-year notes are selling with a yield of 4.44%.

US inflation figures released earlier this week showed consumer prices rose 3.8% from April 2025 as the 10-week Iran war pushed energy costs higher and distanced inflation from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Producer price data also pointed to persistent underlying cost pressures across the economy, reinforcing expectations that the central bank may struggle to ease monetary policy quickly.

Rising Treasury yields have broad implications for the economy because they influence borrowing costs on mortgages, corporate debt and other forms of credit.

Higher long-term yields can also increase financing costs for the US government at a time when public debt is nearing $40 trillion (€34.1tn).

Investors are increasingly concerned that a combination of resilient economic growth, elevated energy prices and sustained government borrowing could keep inflationary pressures alive despite two years of restrictive monetary policy.

The yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond being auctioned above 5% is a symbolic threshold last reached in 2007 before the onset of the global financial crisis.

While market conditions today differ substantially from that period, the move nonetheless underscores the sharp repricing that has taken place in global bond markets over the past two years.

Kevin Warsh inherits a difficult policy environment

Kevin Warsh takes over the Federal Reserve at a delicate moment for the US economy.

The former Morgan Stanley banker and Fed governor has previously argued in favour of maintaining the central bank’s credibility on inflation, while also signalling support for reforms to the institution’s communication strategy and balance sheet policies.

Warsh’s confirmation comes as financial markets remain divided over how aggressively the Federal Reserve should respond to persistent inflation pressures.

Some investors believe rates may need to stay higher for an extended period, while others warn that maintaining tight monetary conditions for too long could weigh heavily on economic growth and employment.

The main driver of the rise in inflation is the current disruption to global energy markets caused by the Iran war which also leaves the central bank at the mercy of geopolitics and not able to effectively control the situation.

Analysts stated that Wednesday’s Treasury auction illustrated the immediate challenge confronting the incoming Fed chair.

Elevated bond yields can help tighten financial conditions without additional rate increases from the central bank, but they can also amplify risks for heavily indebted households, businesses and the federal government itself.

For Warsh, the market reaction served as an early reminder that restoring confidence on inflation may prove more complicated than simply holding interest rates at restrictive levels.

US President Donald Trump hailed the “cherished bond” between the United States and the United Kingdom as he welcomed King Charles III and Queen Camilla to the White House, seeking to mend a rift over issues including the war on Iran.

RALEIGH, N.C. — A U.S. special forces soldier who took part in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will be released on bond on charges accusing him of using classified information about the operation to win more than $400,000 in an online prediction market, a federal magistrate said Friday.

The magistrate in North Carolina said he would allow Gannon Ken Van Dyke to be released and told him to report to a New York federal courthouse by Tuesday to continue his case there.

Bearded with arm tattoos, Van Dyke said little during the nearly hourlong hearing, during which he was appointed a federal public defender who declined to comment afterward. The $250,000 unsecured bond did not require Van Dyke to put up any money.

Federal prosecutors say Van Dyke used his access to classified information about the operation to capture Maduro in January to win money on the prediction market site Polymarket.

The sites allow people to trade on almost anything — from the Super Bowl to U.S. elections and even the winners of the TV reality shows.

Van Dyke, who is stationed at Fort Bragg near Fayetteville, N.C., was charged Thursday with the unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of nonpublic government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud and making an unlawful monetary transaction.

He could face up to 10 years on four of the criminal counts, and up to 20 years on a fifth, the government said Friday. A publicly listed phone number listed for Van Dyke isn’t in service.

Van Dyke, 38, was involved for about a month in the planning and execution of capturing Maduro, according to the New York federal prosecutor’s office. He signed nondisclosure agreements promising to not divulge “any classified or sensitive information” related to the operations, but prosecutors say he used what he knew to make a series of bets related to Maduro being out of power by Jan. 31.

“This involved a U.S. soldier who allegedly took advantage of his position to profit off of a righteous military operation,” FBI Director Kash Patel said in a social media post.

Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets, said it found someone trading on classified government information, alerted the Justice Department and “cooperated with their investigation.”

Massive profits from well-timed bets aroused public attention days after the raid in Venezuela and brought bipartisan calls for stricter regulation of the markets.

The sudden rise of these markets has led to growing scrutiny by Congress and state governments. Some lawmakers alarmed by highly specific, well-timed trades on the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran and wagers on President Trump’s next moves have pushed for guardrails against insider trading.

The Trump administration has been supportive of the industry’s expansion. The president’s eldest son is an advisor for both Polymarket and its main competitor, Kalshi,, and is a Polymarket investor. Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, is launching its own prediction market called Truth Predict.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal agency that regulates prediction markets, announced Thursday that it had filed a parallel complaint against Van Dyke.

That complaint alleges that Van Dyke moved $35,000 from his personal bank account into a cryptocurrency exchange account on Dec. 26 — a little over a week before U.S. forces flew into Caracas and seized Maduro.

Van Dyke made a series of bets on when Maduro might be removed from power, according to the complaint. He placed those bets between Dec. 30 and Jan. 2, with the vast majority occurring the night of Jan. 2 — just hours before the first missiles struck Caracas.

The bets resulted in “more than $404,000 of profits,” the complaint says.

“The defendant was entrusted with confidential information about U.S. operations and yet took action that endangered U.S. national security and put the lives of American service members in harm’s way,” said Michael Selig, the commission’s chairman.

Robertson writes for the Associated Press. AP reporters Allen G. Breed in Raleigh and John Seewer in Toledo, Ohio, contributed to this report.