Ahmed

One international student after another told the University of Central Missouri this summer that they couldn’t get a visa, and many struggled to even land an interview for one.

Even though demand was just as high as ever, half as many new international graduate students showed up for fall classes compared with last year.

The decline represents a hit to the bottom line for Central Missouri, a small public university that operates close to its margins with an endowment of only $65 million. International students typically account for nearly a quarter of its tuition revenue.

“We aren’t able to subsidize domestic students as much when we have fewer international students who are bringing revenue to us,” said Roger Best, the university’s president.

Signs of a decline in international students have unsettled colleges around the U.S. Colleges with large numbers of foreign students and small endowments have little financial cushion to protect them from steep losses in tuition money.

International students represent at least 20% of enrollment at more than 100 colleges with endowments of less than $250,000 per student, according to an Associated Press analysis. Many are small Christian colleges, but the group also includes large universities such as Northeastern and Carnegie Mellon.

The extent of the change in enrollment will not be clear until the fall. Some groups have forecast a decline of as much as 40%, with a huge impact on college budgets and the wider U.S. economy.

International students face new scrutiny on several fronts

As part of a broader effort to reshape higher education, President Trump has pressed colleges to limit their numbers of international students and heightened scrutiny of student visas. His administration has moved to deport foreign students involved in pro-Palestinian activism, and new student visa appointments were put on hold for weeks as it ramped up vetting of applicants’ social media.

On Wednesday, the Department of Homeland Security said it will propose a rule that would put new limits on the time foreign students can stay in the U.S.

The policies have introduced severe financial instability for colleges, said Justin Gest, a professor at George Mason University who studies the politics of immigration.

Foreign students are not eligible for federal financial aid and often pay full price for tuition — double or even triple the in-state rate paid by domestic students at public universities.

“If an international student comes in and pays $80,000 a year in tuition, that gives universities the flexibility to offer lower fees and more scholarship money to American students,” Gest said.

A Sudanese student barely made it to the U.S. for the start of classes

Ahmed Ahmed, a Sudanese student, nearly didn’t make it to the U.S. for his freshman year at the University of Rochester.

The Trump administration in June announced a travel ban on 12 countries, including Sudan. Diplomatic officials assured Ahmed he could still enter the U.S. because his visa was issued before the ban. But when he tried to board a flight to leave for the United States from Uganda, where he stayed with family during the summer, he was turned away and advised to contact an embassy about his visa.

With the help of the University of Rochester’s international office, Ahmed was able to book another flight.

At Rochester, where he received a scholarship to study electrical engineering, Ahmed, 19, said he feels supported by the staff. But he also finds himself on edge and understands why other students might not want to subject themselves to the scrutiny in the U.S., particularly those who are entirely paying their own way.

“I feel like I made it through, but I’m one of the last people to make it through,” he said.

Colleges are taking steps to blunt the impact

In recent years, international students have made up about 30% of enrollment at Central Missouri, which has a total of around 12,800 students. In anticipation of the hit to international enrollment, Central Missouri cut a cost-of-living raise for employees. It has pushed off infrastructure improvements planned for its campus and has been looking for other ways to cut costs.

Small schools — typically classified as those with no more than 5,000 students — tend to have less financial flexibility and will be especially vulnerable, said Dick Startz, an economics professor at UC Santa Barbara.

Lee University, a Christian institution with 3,500 students in Tennessee, is expecting 50 to 60 international students enrolled this fall, down from 82 the previous school year, representing a significant drop in revenue for the school, said Roy Y. Chan, the university’s director of graduate studies.

The school already has increased tuition by 20% over the last five years to account for a decrease in overall enrollment, he said.

“Since we’re a smaller liberal arts campus, tuition cost is our main, primary revenue,” Chan said, as opposed to government funding or donations.

The strains on international enrollment only add to distress for schools already on the financial brink.

Colleges around the country have been closing as they cope with declines in domestic enrollment, a consequence of changing demographics and the effects of the pandemic. Nationwide, private colleges have been closing at a rate of about two per month, according to the State Higher Education Executive Officers Assn.

The number of high school graduates in the U.S. is expected to decline through 2041, when there will be 13% fewer compared with 2024, according to projections from the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.

“That means that if you lost participation from international students, it’s even worse,” Startz said.

Vileira, Seminera and Binkley write for the Associated Press.

An eerily familiar set of headlines is making the rounds in Ethiopia, troubling many in the fragile, northern Tigray region.

Successive delegations of civil society and religious leaders have, in recent weeks, travelled to the Tigrayan capital, Mekelle, for “dialogue”. For some, it is a reminder of the events that played out in the final weeks before Tigray descended into war in November 2020.

That war left 600,000 people dead and some five million displaced. It brought global attention to Ethiopia’s fractured politics and tarnished the reputation of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who had won a Nobel Peace Prize for mending long-severed ties with neighbouring Eritrea.

A ceasefire two years later was supposed to end the war; instead, analysts say, another conflict might be looming. This time, it could involve not just the Tigrayan regional authorities, but also Eritrea, and potentially, that country’s own allies. It is not a conflict that the region can withstand, experts fear.

“We are now at a point where we are all frightened at another conflict in Tigray, and with Eritrea,” analyst Abel Abate Demissie of the Chatham House think tank in the United Kingdom told Al Jazeera. “It would be extremely devastating.”

Fractured agreements signed back in November 2022 that ended the war between the regional Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government are at the root of the tensions. However, it is the deepening resentment between neighbours Eritrea and Ethiopia that analysts say is the scariest development this time.

Ethiopia is a key player in East Africa, and war there could derail regional stability as neighbouring Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia deal with ongoing armed conflict. It could also affect Africa’s self-reliance in the aviation sector, as Addis Ababa is one of Africa’s most important air travel hubs.

Peace agreement pushed aside

War broke out in Tigray in November 2020 after Ethiopia’s Abiy accused the TPLF of attacking a command centre of the national army, the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF).

For decades, the TPLF dominated the ruling coalition in Addis Ababa in what experts say was an autocratic system. The group was disliked in nearly all 10 regions of Ethiopia, a country where regions form along ethnic lines. Eritrea, which fought a border war with TPLF-dominated Ethiopia in 1998, also had gripes with the party. When Abiy, an Oromo, was elected in 2018, though, he established peaceful ties with Eritrea and set about implementing reforms for a stronger central government. The TPLF, however, saw Abiy’s moves as a threat to its power and sought to overthrow his government.

Addis Ababa, in its military response to the TPLF attack, teamed up with other TPLF-opposed entities, including the Amhara army and allied militias, as well as Eritrean forces. All sides were accused of attacking civilians; however, rights groups also accused the federal government of deliberately blocking aid to Tigrayans and causing a near-famine. The United States called attacks by Amhara militias “ethnic cleansing” while many Tigrayans claim the war was a genocide. Many were forcibly displaced from western Tigray, which the Amhara region claims. Thousands of women were raped.

In November 2022, Addis Ababa and TPLF signed the Pretoria peace agreement. The ceasefire deal mandated that the TPLF disarm and a new government be jointly appointed by both sides. It also mandated that Addis Ababa oversee the safe return of displaced people and that all third-party armies withdraw.

However, a power struggle emerged in the TPLF between the Abiy-appointed Tigray mayor, Getachew Reda, and the TPLF head, Debretsion Gebremichael. It began when Getachew attempted to implement the disarmament clause. Core TPLF members, however, accused him of being a sellout. In March, the TPLF faction aligned with Debretsion staged a coup, seized the Mekelle radio station, and forced Getachew to leave Mekelle for Addis Ababa. The coup was a direct affront to Abiy, analysts say. Although he has since appointed another interim president from Debretsion’s camp, Addis Ababa and TPLF have traded insults and threatened attacks.

“Both sides have downplayed their responsibility,” said Abel of Chatham House, speaking of how both sides appear to have moved away from the Pretoria agreement. The TPLF accuses Addis Ababa of failing to resettle people, with some 1.6 million still displaced, and is threatening to forcibly return them. It also blames the government for revoking its licence as a political party, although the national electoral body says it is because the TPLF has failed to hold a general assembly as it previously mandated.

Addis Ababa, on the other hand, has faulted the TPLF for failing to disarm, and also accuses the party of allying with Eritrea.

In a speech in parliament in July, Abiy urged religious leaders and civil society members to warn TPLF leaders against escalation, because when conflict starts, “it would be too late”.

Getachew, who has been expelled from the TPLF, has formed a new party, the Tigray Democratic Solidarity Party. Analysts say it is possible that the party might be installed in Tigray instead.

Meanwhile, Amhara militias and the TPLF continue to clash. Many young people who joined the TPLF in the 2020 war have defected to form new militias allied with Getachew’s faction and attempted an attack on the TPLF in July.

The problem with Eritrea

Ethiopia’s perpetual entanglement with Eritrea has taken on a different dimension since 2020, with both again at loggerheads.

Cracks appeared in their parley after Abiy’s government agreed to peace with the TPLF. President Isaias Afwerki, who has been Eritrea’s de facto leader since 1994, was reportedly angered as he did not feel sufficiently consulted, even as Eritrean troops are still in Tigray.

A bigger problem, however, is Abiy’s comments since 2023 about landlocked Ethiopia’s “existential” need to access a seaport. Asmara has taken those statements as a threat that Addis Ababa might invade and seize the coastal areas it previously lost after Eritrea fought to secede in 1993. In one comment, Abiy described Ethiopia losing sea access as a “historical mistake”.

Since then, Eritrea has been building up defences, sending military tanks to the border, according to analysts, with Ethiopia doing the same. In February, Eritrea put out calls for conscription into the army. Asmara is also reportedly in cahoots with the TPLF to undermine Abiy, although officials deny this.

Both sides do not really want to go to war and are merely posturing, analyst Abel said. Eritrea would meet in Addis Ababa a formidable enemy, and Ethiopia is not eager to mar its reputation as a growing regional leader where the African Union has its headquarters.

“The problem, though, is it only takes one small act to ignite a war, even if both sides don’t want it,” the analyst said.

In March, Abiy attempted to downplay the tensions while speaking in parliament.

“Our intention is to negotiate based on the principle of give and take,” he said, implying that any port deals would be commercial. “Our plan is not to fight but to work together and grow together.”

It is not only Asmara that has been angered by Abiy’s bid to find a port. Neighbouring Somalia nearly declared war last year after Abiy sealed a port deal with the self-declared state of Somaliland. Somalia, which views Somaliland as part of its territory, was furious, but Turkiye, Somalia’s close ally, mediated repairs between the two in December. Before they reconciled, Eritrea held meetings with Somalia, as well as Egypt, which is also angry with Addis Ababa over the Grand Renaissance Dam, which it says will limit its water supply from the Nile.

Can all sides find peace?

Analysts say the work of finding common ground rests mostly with Abiy as Asmara, for one, is not strong on diplomacy, and the TPLF appears more confident with reported Eritrean backing.

The big unknown is whether Abiy is willing and able to restore ties with either the TPLF or Eritrea without either side feeling sidelined. In the background, as well, are the Amhara militias who are still present in disputed western Tigray. Any attempts to remove them could lead to conflict.

In any case, Abiy is already suffering a crisis of legitimacy, analyst Micheal Tsegay Assefa concluded in a brief for the Atlas Institute for International Affairs.

“Regional leaders, particularly from Amhara and Oromia, increasingly question the central government’s capacity to secure peace and manage inter-regional conflicts,” he wrote, due to Addis Ababa’s inability to enforce the peace deal.

Meanwhile, as the sabre-rattling continues, Tigrayans are once again fearing for their lives. The recent tensions have sent scores of people fleeing from the region, with some risking deadly routes to get out of the country altogether.

Researchers say Ethiopian migrants attempting, and dying, to enter Yemen via the Gulf of Aden increasingly appear to be from Tigray, based on the clothing or jewellery found by rescuers during shipwrecks.

Analysts say another war simply must not happen.

“Conflict only needs one side to go rogue,” Abel said. “I really hope that sanity will prevail and all sides will apply wisdom.”

If history has taught us anything, it’s that no one is truly safe. That gathering dread fueled some great ’70s paranoid thrillers, such as “The Parallax View” and “The Conversation,” but it’s been difficult to replicate that eeriness in today’s extremely online world, when our devices explain and obfuscate with abandon, conspiracies are lifeblood and we feel persecuted one day, invincibly anonymous the next.

The nifty premise of “Relay,” a new white-knuckle ride from “Hell or High Water” director David Mackenzie, is that a certain type of tech-savvy hero can, if not completely ease your anxiety, at least navigate a secret truce with those out to get you. And Riz Ahmed’s solitary off-the-grid fixer, Ash, who hides in plain sight in bustling New York, can do it without ever meeting or talking to you: His preferred mode of traceless communication is the text-telephone service that hard-of-hearing people use in conjunction with message-relaying operators. Like a ready-made covert operation, it keeps identities, numbers and call logs secret.

For the simple fact that “Relay” is not about an assassin (the movies’ most over-romanticized independent contractor), screenwriter Justin Piasecki’s scenario deserves kudos. Rather, Ash’s broker helps potential whistleblowers escape the clutches of dangerously far-reaching entities — unless, of course, they want to settle for cash. It’s a fascinatingly cynical update: Should we make an uneasy peace with our tormentors? (Hello, today’s headlines.)

Before those questions get their due, however, “Relay” sets itself up with clockwork precision as a straightforward big-city nail-biter about staying one step ahead. Seeking protection from harassment and a return to normal life, rattled biotech scientist Sarah (Lily James) goes on the run with incriminating documents about her former employer. When she’s rebuffed by a high-powered law firm, she’s provided a mysterious number to call. Ash, armed with his elaborate vetting methods, puts Sarah through the paces with rules and instructions regarding burner phones, mailed packages and a detailed itinerary of seemingly random air travel. It doesn’t just test her commitment, though — it’s also a ploy to scope out the corporate goons on her trail: a dogged surveillance team led by Sam Worthington (who should maybe only play bad guys) and Willa Fitzgerald.

As the story careens through airports and post offices and New York’s hidey-holes, the cat-and-mouse chase is dizzyingly enjoyable, worthy of a Thomas Perry novel. We wait for the missteps that threaten everything, of course, and they begin with learning that Ash is a failed whistleblower himself, one who is beginning to question his chosen crusade. Another vulnerability, recognizable in the occasional cracks in Ahmed’s commanding stoicism, is the loneliness of the gig. So when a restive Sarah, on one of their protected calls, gently prods for a smidgen of personality from her mysterious unseen helper, one is inclined to shout, “No feelings! Too risky!”

But that, of course, is the slippery pleasure of “Relay,” which pits individuals against venal institutional might. Flaws are the beating hearts of these movies, triggering the peril that makes the blood pump faster. Some of that effectiveness is undercut by some off-putting music choices, but McKenzie’s command of the material is rock solid, Giles Nuttgens’ cinematography achieves a sleek, moody metallic chill and Matt Mayer’s editing is always fleet. In a year that’s already given us one superlative case of adult peekaboo — Steven Soderbergh’s “Black Bag” — “Relay” proves there’s still more room for smart, punchy cloak-and-dagger options.