Though no deal was reached to end Iran’s nuclear arms ambitions, U.S. and Iranian officials both expressed cautious optimism after the third round of negotiations between the two nations concluded today. Even as the talks were underway in Geneva, more American military assets pushed toward the Middle East. On Thursday, the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford left Souda Bay on the Greek-owned island of Crete and will reportedly arrive off the Israeli coast as early as Friday. In addition, more F-35A Lighting II stealth fighters and F-15E Strike Eagle multirole fighters are on their way across the Atlantic for likely deployment to the region.
You can get a good sense of the state of play in this situation in our deep dive here.
The third round of indirect talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva ended inconclusively Thursday.
“We have finished the day after significant progress in the negotiation between the United States and Iran,” Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, who is moderating the talks, stated on X. “We will resume soon after consultation in the respective capitals. Discussions on a technical level will take place next week in Vienna. I am grateful to all concerned for their efforts: the negotiators, the IAEA, and our hosts the Swiss government.”
U.S. and Iranian officials offered positive assessments of the negotiations.
At issue is the future of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but the negotiations do not involve Iran’s ballistic missile program, which the Trump administration is now saying could threaten the U.S. homeland in the near future. More about that later in this story. The U.S. is reportedly demanding that Iran destroy its Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, deliver all enriched uranium to the U.S., agree to zero enrichment of its uranium, but can keep the Tehran reactor. In addition, the Trump administration is demanding that any deal be permanent and is offering Iran minimal sanctions relief, with more if the country is compliant with these demands.
For its part, Iran “is unwilling to transfer any enriched uranium outside the country,” the official Iranian Press TV news outlet reported on Thursday. While the U.S. delegation demands all existing stockpiles be handed over, Iran insists that the enriched uranium should remain safeguarded within its borders.
“Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Iran remained ‘crystal clear’ that it would ‘under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon,’ while also recognising the right of Iran’s people to the benefits of ‘peaceful nuclear technology,’” Al Jazeera reported.
The negotiations are taking place in the wake of statements by Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio laying out the administration’s case against Iran. Both warned that Iran is developing weapons that can strike the U.S. and has the means and intent to strike its assets, and those of allies, in the Middle East.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration reportedly would like to see Israel attack first to give the U.S. political cover.
“There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” Politico stated.
“The argument in Israel is that this would be a terrible strategic mistake, as it creates a lose-lose situation: if the strike fails, Israel would be blamed for dragging the United States into the conflict,” a high-ranking IDF official told us. “Israel would be accused of being a warmonger, a source of destruction and regional war, rather than a country seeking to reach an agreement. Israel could find itself completely isolated. This reflects the general discourse on the issue.”
This issue should be taken with a degree of skepticism since much of the behind-the-scenes reporting has been highly inaccurate.
“Many actions are being carried out on the home front, among civilians, in order to protect them from missile strikes,” the IDF official added. “At the same time, there is very significant military readiness along the borders.”
While the Trump administration is pushing Iran to accept the deal or risk an attack, Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives pledged Thursday “to force a vote next week on legislation to restrict President Donald Trump from attacking Iran without congressional approval,” Politico pointed out, adding that “the White House is already mobilizing to try and defeat it.”
The move by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his leadership team “will compel a tough and close vote for lawmakers as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Tehran,” the outlet added.
The sabre rattling and internal political machinations come as the U.S. has built up a massive force that includes two aircraft carrier strike groups and several other warships.
There are reports that the Ford, on a twice-extended deployment that has seen it enter the Mediterranean for the second time since departing Norfolk on June 24, 2025, will dock in Haifa, Israel. However, that seems dubious given that placing an aircraft carrier at a fixed location like that would make it a very attractive and high-volume target for an Iranian attack. The carrier would not benefit from its own defenses, and to a lesser degree, that of its escorts, when in port, as well.
There have been suggestions that the Ford’s Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer escorts will help provide protection for Israel against anticipated Iranian barrages. The Ford’s F/A-18E-F Super Hornets and E/A-18G Growler electronic warfare jets could also be used to attack Iran, but would have to fly across Israel or Lebanon, Syria or Jordan, and Iraq, to reach Iranian territory.
Haifa “suffered significant damage” during the 12-Day War in June, “with dozens injured from missile fire and structural damage to homes and municipality buildings,” the Jerusalem Post reported. “Haifa is home to the Israel Navy headquarters and the largest oil refinery in Israel, which was hit during the war, forcing a partial, temporary shutdown of some secondary facilities.”
The Pentagon’s first kamikaze drone unit is ready to participate if Trump decides to launch strikes on Iran, Bloomberg News reported, citing U.S. officials and analysts. The drone unit is known as Task Force Scorpion. It’s now ready for operations, U.S. Central Command spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins told the news outlet in an emailed statement.
“We established the squadron last year to rapidly equip our warfighters with new combat drone capabilities that continue to evolve,” he said.
The U.S. military set up Task Force Scorpion late last year as the first operational unit armed with Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) kamikaze drones, a design reverse-engineered from the Iranian-designed Shahed-136, in the Middle East. The establishment was seen as a major development, and offers a way “to flip the script on Iran,” according to a U.S. official. Last year, TWZ laid out a detailed case for why America’s armed forces should be investing heavily in rapidly-produced Shahed-136 clones as an adaptable capability that could be critical in future operations globally, as you can read here.
In addition to the ships, scores of tactical jets, refuelers, airborne control planes, and other aircraft have already surged to the Middle East and Europe, with more on the way. At least another 12 F-35As from Hill Air Force Base in Utah, and six F-15Es each from Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho and Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina are heading to Europe. That’s ahead of a likely deployment to the Middle East.
Aviation photographer Acr Explorer was kind enough to share images of F-35As and F-22s seen at Lakenheath Air Base in the U.K. on Thursday.
The large influx of U.S. airpower has left U.S. bases in the region crowded and is one reason that F-22 Raptor stealth fighters have been deployed to Israel. Another is the likelihood that Israel will be fully integrated into any U.S. attack on Iran.
Beyond the Middle East and Europe, the U.S. is also building up forces at Diego Garcia, its Indian Ocean island outpost, which has been used as a bomber base in previous conflicts. As we noted yesterday, F-16CM fighters from the 35th Fighter Wing recently arrived on the island from Misawa Air Base in Japan. These would be key assets in defending the island from a possible Iranian attack. There is also indications that a bomber deployment to the base could be imminent. However, there are political questions to be solved before the base can be used for a strike on Iran. As we reported last week, the United Kingdom has apparently said it would not allow the use of the island for strikes on Iran, although Prime Minister Keir Starmer could still change his mind. You can read more about the force-protection mission at Diego Garcia — increasingly threatened by Iranian long-range attack drones and missiles — in our previous reporting.
While the talks between Washington and Tehran are scheduled to resume next week, remember that three days before the Operation Midnight Hammer strike on Iranian nuclear facilities last June, the White House said Trump would decide “within two weeks” about whether to strike or keep negotiating.
Though more negotiations are scheduled, Trump has acted militarily ahead of planned talks in the past. Regardless, with the Ford arriving very soon and other assets trickling into place, and fitting our own stated timeline, the window for strikes appears to be cracking open now, and will only get wider with each passing day.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com