Times of Troy: Why Lincoln Riley sensed a change in Trojans at halftime against Iowa

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter. Hopefully, by the time you read this, you will have finally dried off. Or maybe it’s still pouring rain where you are. But whatever the weather, things are looking pretty sunny for Lincoln Riley and USC right now.

The Trojans are now just two wins away from a trip to the College Football Playoff. But the bigger statement Saturday, while rallying in the rain to beat a team like Iowa, wasn’t so much about this season, but rather the program’s trajectory after next week’s marquee matchup at No. 8 Oregon.

Riley said later that he sensed this shift at halftime, just as the team’s Playoff hopes were hanging by a thread. His Trojans were trailing Iowa, 21-10, once again having succumbed to the same slow start that plagued them the last two games. They’d been outplayed, outworked, outsmarted. The run defense was awful. The offense was stuck in the mud.

Still, as Riley looked out over the locker room, he saw something he hadn’t last season or the season before that.

“You could tell from the look in their eye,” Riley said. “I felt very strongly we were going to come back out and make a run.”

We saw it for ourselves in the second half. USC’s defense shut out Iowa from that point on. It was the third game in a row in which the Trojans allowed three points or fewer after half. The offense came roaring back, scoring 16 unanswered points. The comeback felt almost run-of-the-mill in the moment. As if falling behind was just a part of the plan all along.

That it came in the pouring rain, against a team whose style is so quintessentially Big Ten, made it particularly meaningful.

“If there ever was one, that was a culture win,” Riley said. “Our team’s resilience, their response at halftime … we just keep coming, we have all year.”

Think of how different that feels from this time last season, when it was a foregone conclusion that USC would fold in the fourth quarter. Now, instead, there’s a sense of swagger and confidence that hasn’t been there since before Caleb Williams hurt his hamstring in the 2022 Pac-12 championship game.

Even that 2022 season, as magical as it may have been, was propped up by a Heisman winner at quarterback, one capable of willing his team to wins unlike anyone before him at USC. Riley has said on several occasions that that team, coming off a 4-8 campaign, overachieved relative to where the program actually stood.

Two frustrating seasons followed. There were times, during that stretch, where it seemed USC found something. But nothing felt quite as earned as Saturday’s breakthrough in the second half.

Eric Gentry was there for that first season under Riley. The senior linebacker has been an emotional leader ever since and a good barometer of where things stand in the locker room.

“It’s win or go home right now, and there’s no go home,” Gentry said after the game. “We’ve got to win. I think the whole team is understanding of what the culture is. Just fight to the last second, not feel like something bad is going to happen.

“Coach [Riley] said: ‘Don’t hope for [anything]. Make it happen.’”

Hope won’t be enough to win at Oregon, where it hasn’t won in 14 years. It will have to iron out its issues against the run to have any shot against the Ducks, who boast the best rushing attack in the Big Ten. It will need to start faster on both sides of the ball. And it will have to play up to its potential on the road against a very good team, which it hasn’t done … umm … ever during Riley’s tenure.

That’s not to say this can’t happen. (Which I may have suggested in this space three months ago.) If not for a game-winning field goal in the rain, Oregon would have lost to Iowa last week. But very few people will give USC a shot at Autzen, for reasons that are totally rational and understandable.

College football, though, is rarely ever rational or understandable. If USC is somehow able to upend Oregon, on the road, it would be the biggest win at the school not just since Riley started as coach, but well before that.

No matter what happens, we’ve seen enough this season to say that the team and the program are in a better place than they were a year ago. The question now is whether they’re ready to take that final step.

—Waymond Jordan was listed as “questionable” against Iowa. Could that hint at a return vs. Oregon? When Jordan underwent surgery last month, the hope was that his injury would only keep him out for four to six weeks. We’re basically at five-week mark right now, and by next weekend, will be near the end of that original timeline. Getting Jordan back was for this game was always a priority, and while King Miller has done great in his stead, Jordan was one of the best backs in America when he went down. His potential return would be huge news for USC’s offense. Some of this disparity is a factor of playing better defenses, but since Jordan departed the win over Michigan, USC’s offense has averaged just over six yards per play in its last four games, down from 8.3 yards in the previous six games with him.

—Give Makai Lemon the Biletnikoff already. How much more does anyone need to see to be convinced that Lemon is the best receiver in college football? Saturday was the third time in six weeks that Lemon has had 10 or more catches. And the afternoon started with Iowa double-teaming him. His leaping grab over the middle, as an Iowa defender knocked his legs out from under him, was truly something to behold. “He’s a fearless player,” Riley said. “Always has been.” But his game has gone to another level as a junior. I expect he’ll be a primary focus of Oregon’s secondary next week, which should open up opportunities for the rest of USC’s receiving corps.

—The USC women need time. Their schedule doesn’t exactly allow for it. Without JuJu Watkins, the Trojans are still trying to figure out their identity. They had no shot keeping up with No. 2 South Carolina on Saturday shooting 7% from deep. Jazzy Davidson is still getting the hang of things, just three games into her true freshman season, while USC’s frontcourt was pretty much non-existent against the Gamecocks. I agree with Lindsay Gottlieb that tests like this one, even when failed, help a team get better. But three of the Trojans’ next eight games come against top-25 teams, including a matchup with No. 1 Connecticut.

—Rodney Rice is better than advertised. When Eric Musselman put his roster together for Year 2 at USC, it wasn’t the plan for Rice to fully take on primary point guard duties. Freshman Alijah Arenas was presumed to be USC’s primary ballhandler. But his injury left Musselman with no choice but to trust Rice. And boy, has he delivered on that trust. Rice turned in a triple-double Friday in a win over Illinois State. But it’s his command of USC’s offense that was especially encouraging. He makes others better, which is going to be critical if the Trojans hope to be a tournament team this season.

—AD Jen Cohen laid out her perspective on non-conference scheduling in her State of Troy address. She never said the words “Notre Dame,” but the message might as well have been addressed to Irish athletic director Pete Bevacqua. Cohen wants to play the game in the first month of the season, as we’ve reported in this newsletter. In her letter to fans, she pointed out that no other Big Ten teams in the last two years have played a non-conference road game after Week 4. “Intentionally making our road to the CFP significantly more difficult than our Big Ten peers does not align with our goal to win championships,” Cohen wrote. That might make some fans bristle, but it’s the same sentiment that Riley has expressed for the last two years.

—Here’s what Cohen said on the Big Ten’s proposed private equity plans. In the same address, Cohen gave her first public comments on the private equity plan that USC and Michigan currently remain against. She didn’t reject the idea of a private equity deal outright, but noted that the school, in any deal, would need to consider USC’s “long-term value and flexibility” versus the benefit of a short-term payout. But the payout itself is part of the problem: USC is slated to get less than not just Michigan and Ohio State, but also Penn State. I still don’t see USC budging on its issue with that disparity, which could amount to something like a $10 million difference, per On3’s reporting. That’s led to some alarm bells about USC going independent. But there’s no reason to think we’re anywhere close to that. Let’s pump the brakes.

—You may have noticed that the Sams made another number change. Punter Sam Johnson and third-string quarterback Sam Huard were both listed as No. 0 this week, after both deceptively wore No. 80 a week ago. Watching USC line up for a punt this week, it dawned on me another brilliant layer to USC’s controversial fake punt ploy. From now on, every team the Trojans play will have to think to themselves, “Is that actually the punter?” Whether you thought USC’s ploy was bush league or not, Riley has only reaped benefits since. Though, maybe it’s no coincidence that Johnson’s first punt this week was a 24-yard shank. Karma? Perhaps.

In case you missed it

No. 8 USC can’t pull off a comeback this time in loss to No. 2 South Carolina

Plaschke: USC keeps its playoff hopes alive with downpour of toughness against Iowa

No. 17 USC shuts out No. 21 Iowa in second half of thrilling, rain-soaked comeback

Rodney Rice makes history with a triple-double in USC win over Illinois State

Lincoln Riley urges USC players to embrace pressure during high-stakes game against Iowa

‘She could do everything.’ Jazzy Davidson’s closest friends know she can be elite at USC

Can USC’s defense find its stride during a crucial, final stretch?

What I’m watching this week

After waiting patiently for a year since the first installment, “Wicked: For Good” hits theaters this weekend, and I am counting down the days.

The first movie was tremendous, and the second has maybe the best song from the original musical (the name of which just happens to be in the title of the film). Early reviews suggest that Ariana Grande is given a lot more to do dramatically in this film, and I, for one, am here for it after her stellar performance the first time around.

With the early kickoff in Eugene, I may have no choice but to go see it that night — and thus, incur the wrath of my wife, who’s also waiting to see it, later.

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.