The Kremlin today confirmed it’s in contact with Turkey over the fate of Ankara’s Russian-made S-400 air defense systems. Reports have emerged that Turkey could soon transfer the controversial missiles to an unnamed Gulf state in a move aimed at convincing Washington to lift sanctions and clear the way for Ankara’s return to the F-35 program.
Asked Friday whether Turkey had sought Russia’s approval for the reported transfer, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the substance of the report but confirmed Moscow is discussing the issue with Ankara.
“I can say one thing here: this is an extremely sensitive issue. However, we have been in contact with the Turkish side on this matter, and we will continue to maintain contact with them on this issue.”
Reports in the Turkish media say that Ankara is considering transferring its S-400 systems to an unspecified Gulf country, but the Turkish government has not confirmed that.
“According to the information I’ve gathered, the S-400s have been sold to a third country,” journalist Abdulkadir Selvi wrote in the Turkish newspaper Hürriyet on Friday. “The sale will be announced today. The S-400s are going to a country in the Gulf.”
Both the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have been named as potential candidates to receive the systems.
There were indications at the NATO Summit in Ankara earlier this week that the United States was considering softening its stance on the issue of F-35s for Turkey.
“Why wouldn’t we do that?” U.S. President Trump said when asked if he would let Turkey back into the program. “Turkey, in many ways, has been much more loyal than other countries that we think would be loyal.”
Nevertheless, Turkey’s possession of the S-400 remains a sticking point.
Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 despite being a manufacturing partner and planning to buy around 100 aircraft after refusing to abandon its purchase of the S-400.
Washington took that decision after Turkey refused to abandon its purchase of S-400 systems, amid security concerns around the Russian-made system and the F-35. By that time, around 30 F-35As had been built for Turkey. Most of these were later transferred to the U.S. Air Force.
It now seems that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is willing to give up the S-400s to regain access to the F-35 program.
Turkey bought the S-400 in 2017, but the systems have reportedly spent most of their service life in storage. Separate reports have also questioned the S-400’s combat performance in Indian service during last year’s India-Pakistan conflict.
From Turkey’s perspective, regaining access to the F-35 would deliver far greater long-term military and industrial benefits than retaining the S-400. Lockheed Martin anticipates that by the 2030s, more than 600 F-35s will be operated from more than 10 European countries, including two U.S. Air Force squadrons in the United Kingdom. Turkey would be able to benefit from a significant European operator footprint and, potentially, could reinstate lucrative local production for F-35 components.
In the past, Moscow has said that contractual obligations from the S-400 acquisition prevent it from being resold or transferred by Turkey without formal authorization. However, there is now also the possibility that Russia might want to take back the S-400s to bolster its own air defenses, which are increasingly strained by the ongoing war in Ukraine. As Kyiv piles on the pressure with long-range drone and cruise missile strikes against Russia, getting more S-400s for homeland defense would also be very welcome.
On the other hand, there will still be some resistance to Turkey’s readmission to the F-35 program. Any kind of major defense deal with Turkey involves some kind of pushback from U.S. lawmakers.
As well as the S-400 issue, U.S. lawmakers have historically been concerned about Turkey’s relations with Greece, its other connections with Russia and Azerbaijan (which included the deployment of F-16s to the latter country), its conduct in the Syrian civil war, and human rights abuses. Previously, Turkey’s opposition to Sweden joining NATO also proved to be a significant hurdle.
The process to get Turkey back into the F-35 program would involve a lifting of the sanctions placed on it under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA). To do this, Trump would need to formally notify Congress that the S-400s are no longer operational, that Turkey no longer possesses any of the systems, and that Ankara has pledged not to pursue similar defense ties with Russia in the future. Congress could still put the matter to a vote if lawmakers were still unconvinced that these conditions have been met.
There have been recent signs that, under Trump in particular, Turkey is getting more access to high-end defense equipment. This reflects broader improvements in Washington’s relationship with Ankara, with Erdogan frequently receiving praise from the U.S. leader.
Last month, reports emerged that the Trump administration planned to go ahead with the sale of dozens of F110 engines required to power Turkey’s homegrown TF Kaan combat jet, despite some resistance from Congress. You can read more about that here.
In early 2024, the U.S. State Department finally approved a possible Foreign Military Sale to Turkey of 40 new F-16C/D Block 70 fighters, which Ankara had long campaigned for, plus the upgrade of 79 existing aircraft to F-16V configuration.
Ankara’s push to regain access to the F-35 has taken on added urgency as rival Greece moves ahead with its own approved purchase of the stealth jets. We explored how that rivalry is reshaping both countries’ air forces in this previous feature.
Moreover, Turkey is looking to modernize its fighter fleet and, denied the F-35 and with F-16 deals moving forward only slowly, it has been forced to look elsewhere to meet its short-term fighter needs. Most notably, it signed a deal for 20 Eurofighter Typhoon jets last year.
A Turkish return to the F-35 program would also have implications for the Kaan program. Renewed defense ties with Washington could ease access to critical technologies and support for the homegrown jet, while acquiring the F-35 would also reduce some of the urgency behind the Kaan, which was accelerated in part after expulsion from the Joint Strike Fighter program. Even so, Ankara has consistently presented the Kaan as a long-term strategic project intended to give it an independent fighter capability rather than simply replace the F-35. It also comes with the option for lucrative exports.
With the strongest signs yet that Ankara is ready to relinquish its S-400s, it would represent a remarkable reversal of one of the most consequential defense procurement decisions in Turkey’s recent history. Whether that proves sufficient to reopen the door to the F-35 program, however, will ultimately depend as much on Congress as on the White House.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com