The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire just under an hour before U.S. President Donald Trump’s Wednesday deadline to hammer the country with an unprecedented level of airstrikes was due to expire, with Tehran announcing it will temporarily reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Both sides are now claiming victory in the conflict, which lasted more than a month and disrupted global financial markets, with oil prices driving sharply higher.
Trump told AFP that the agreement last night marked a “total and complete victory” for the United States.
Iran also portrayed the ceasefire as a huge success, stating it had agreed to begin talks with Washington on Friday in Pakistan as part of efforts to bring the conflict to an end. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council conditionally accepted the two-week ceasefire if attacks against Iran are halted.
“The enemy has suffered an undeniable, historic and crushing defeat in its cowardly, illegal and criminal war against the Iranian nation,” said a statement from the Supreme National Security Council.
“Iran achieved a great victory.”
What is the Pentagon saying?
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine gave a press conference today.
Hegseth, who had previously described “a fragile truce,” says that Iran “begged for this ceasefire” and that Operation Epic Fury “decimated” Iran’s military.
He says the country’s missile programme has been “functionally destroyed” and that Iran’s navy “is at the bottom of the sea.” Hesgeth adds that “we [the US] own their skies.”
The U.S. military carried out 800 strikes on Tuesday night, Hegseth says, destroying Iran’s defense industrial base.
Should it be decided, the U.S. military is also ready to resume action against Iran.
In the statement on Truth Social, Trump said that the United States would be just “hangin’ around” in order to make sure everything goes well,” suggesting a continuing beefed-up military presence in the region.
“Let us be clear, a ceasefire is a pause, and the joint force remains ready, if ordered or called upon,” Caine told the press conference today.
While the Israeli Channel 12 reported that U.S. Air Force KC-135 refueling tankers are starting to leave Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv, publicly available flight-tracking data suggested the aircraft took off and then returned to the same airport.
What are the Iranian demands?
Trump said that Iran had proposed a “workable” 10-point peace plan. According to Iranian state media, the 10-point proposal includes various conditions that the United States had rejected in the past.
Among the key Iranian demands are controlled transit through the Strait of Hormuz, coordinated with the Iranian military. The plan would also require the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of full compensation to Iran, and release of all frozen Iranian assets. It is unclear if the United States will actually cede to any of these latter points.
Making matters more confusing, a U.S. official said today that the 10-point ceasefire plan published by Iran is not the same set of conditions that were agreed to by the White House for pausing the war.
“The document being reported by media outlets is not the working framework,” the senior official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
Since then, Trump has also emphasized the fact that the nature of the points in the agreement is a closely guarded secret, and published claims about them “have absolutely nothing to do with the negotiation.”
How real is the ceasefire?
After the ceasefire was announced, there were aid-raid warnings in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates.
Israel said it was also intercepting missiles and striking back at sites in Iran.
Kuwait, in particular, today reported a barrage of drone attacks targeting oil infrastructure, desalination facilities and power plants.
However, there are signs that some U.S. airstrikes may have been called off as soon as the ceasefire announcement was made, with at least one B-52 bomber returning to RAF Fairford, England, with weapons still loaded under the wings.
While it remains unclear to what degree Iran is taking the ceasefire seriously, there is also the reality that many Iranian military units have been fighting with a decentralized command and control in order to make its forces more resilient after lessons learned from the 12-Day War. Meanwhile, whatever ability to maintain oversight and authority over these units that is still in place has been significantly incapacitated in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes and by other means, as well as an internet blackout. Iran also mentioned yesterday that getting the word about the ceasefire agreement to military units will take time.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times reported today that Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline, which transports crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea for export, has been attacked. The newspaper cited two sources familiar with the incident, who said that a pumping station along the pipeline was struck around 1:00 p.m. local time today. The pipeline has become an absolutely crucial economic asset for the kingdom (and the world) amid disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
One source said the facility was targeted by a drone, and officials are currently assessing the extent of the damage.
The nuclear issue
At this point, Iranian officials have not fully confirmed all details of the reported agreement, so the status of the nuclear issue is unclear.
Iranian state media reports that the 10-point plan also requires Washington to accept its uranium enrichment program, a previous red line for the Trump administration, and one of the main reasons for the U.S. military operation in the first instance.
On his Truth Social platform on Wednesday afternoon, Trump said he had rejected the Iranian demand for the right to enrich uranium.
He said the United States would “work closely” with Iran but “there will be no enrichment of uranium.”
Trump has also claimed that the United States will assist in recovering enriched uranium, at least some of which was buried during Operation Midnight Hammer airstrikes last summer. On Truth Social, he wrote:
“The United States will work closely with Iran, which we have determined has gone through what will be a very productive Regime Change! There will be no enrichment of Uranium, and the United States will, working with Iran, dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear ‘Dust.’ It is now, and has been, under very exacting Satellite Surveillance (Space Force!). Nothing has been touched from the date of attack.”
Speaking today, Hegseth said that Iran will give the United States its enriched uranium or else the U.S. will “take it out.”
Subsequently, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Iran has indicated it will turn over its stocks of enriched uranium.
The status of the Strait of Hormuz
Some of the first ships to sail through the strait since the ceasefire announcement have already been detected, according to tracking data analyst MarineTraffic.
In a post on X, MarineTraffic wrote:
“Early signs of vessel activity are emerging in the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire announcement, which includes a temporary reopening of the strategic waterway to allow for negotiations. According to MarineTraffic data, hundreds of vessels remain in the region, including 426 tankers, 34 LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) carriers, and 19 LNG (liquefied natural gas) vessels, many of which had been effectively stranded during the disruption.”
Subsequently, French global marine data tracker AXSMarine reported that 10 ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz so far today, four of which are Iranian.
During peacetime, the straits saw between 50 and 100 ships passing in each direction daily.
Iran’s foreign minister said that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be allowed for the next two weeks under Iranian military management.
Hamid Hosseini, a spokesperson for Iran’s Oil, Gas and Petrochemical Products Exporters’ Union, told the Financial Times today that Iran wanted to collect tolling fees from any tanker passing and to assess each ship.
“Iran needs to monitor what goes in and out of the strait to ensure these two weeks aren’t used for transferring weapons,” said Hosseini, whose industry association works closely with the state. “Everything can pass through, but the procedure will take time for each vessel, and Iran is not in a rush,” he added.
Iran has stated a tariff of $1 per barrel of oil, to be paid in cryptocurrency, adding that empty tankers can pass freely.
Trump today said he is considering the formation of a “joint venture” with Iran to set up tolls in the strait. This may well be related to Trump’s announcement that the United States will be “helping with the traffic buildup” in the strait, although no further details were provided.
There are also reports that the Iranian Navy said today it will destroy ships attempting to pass through the strait without Tehran’s permission, adding that transit through the waterway remains shut.
“Any vessel trying to travel into the sea … will be targeted and destroyed…” the reported message said.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Wednesday there was still a lot of work to do to reopen the strait, speaking during a visit to Saudi Arabia. “We now … have a ceasefire, but there’s a lot of work to do, as you will appreciate, a lot of work to make sure that that ceasefire becomes permanent and brings about the peace that we all want to see,” Starmer said. “But also a lot of work to do in relation to the Strait of Hormuz, which has an impact everywhere across the world.”
In a statement today, the Iranian news agency FARS said that the strait will remain blocked as long as Israel attacks Lebanon, suggesting a nother possbile point of friction in the ceasefire.
Regardless of tolls and continued coercion, it is highly unlikely that energy prices will spring back to their pre-war levels any time soon. Despite the agreement on access to the strait, shipowners will probably remain cautious about re-entering the region when any resumption of hostilities could result in the loss of vessels or crew.
Overall, it will require a lasting ceasefire before there is more confidence in the oil market.
What will happen in Lebanon?
The White House says that Israel agreed to the ceasefire, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it does not include Lebanon, where Israel continues to launch assaults and airstrikes in response to rocket fire by Iranian-backed Hezbollah.
The Pakistani prime minister, Shebaz Sharif, had previously said the ceasefire extended over Lebanon, something that Trump refuted.
This was underscored by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launching what it says is the largest wave of strikes across Lebanon since the current conflict began. The IDF claims it attacked 100 command centres and military infrastructure targets belonging to Hezbollah in 10 minutes.
“The IDF carried out a surprise strike on hundreds of Hezbollah terrorists at command centres across Lebanon. This is the largest concentrated blow Hezbollah has suffered since Operation Beepers,” Israeli Minister of Defense Israel Katz said in a video statement, referring to the 2024 operation against Hezbollah involving explosive pagers.
There is also a possibility that the continued Israeli campaign directed against Hezbollah could also draw Iran back into the conflict. Al Jazeera reports that a senior Iranian official told them that Iran “will punish Israel in response to the crime it committed in Lebanon,” which Tehran views as a violation of the ceasefire conditions.
What about peace talks?
Iranian state media said negotiations with the United States will be held in Islamabad, the Pakistani capital. Iran wants to see the details of a long-term peace agreement finalized, with the aim of “confirming Iran’s battlefield achievements.”
Talks are supposed to begin on Friday, April 10, but could be extended. This morning, Washington had yet to publicly accept an invitation to the talks, but Trump today told the New York Post that in-person talks with Iran will happen very soon.
Today, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to X to condemn reported violations of the ceasefire at a “few places across the conflict zone, which undermine the spirit of the peace process.”
“I earnestly and sincerely urge all parties to exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards a peaceful settlement of the conflict,” he added.
This afternoon, the White House confirmed that JD Vance, plus Middle East envoys, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff, would lead the U.S. negotiating team in Pakistan.
Has there been regime change?
Another early aim for Trump and Netanyahu when the war began was regime change in Iran.
While Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior leaders have been killed, the degree to which the political landscape in Iran has actually changed is highly questionable.
Trump has repeatedly said that the new Iranian leadership is much more open to negotiation, but it remains the case that the new regime is essentially now centred around a hardline group dominated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Such an outcome is what we warned about prior to the conflict beginning.
There is also a question about the condition of the new Iranian supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Hegseth said again today that he is “wounded and disfigured,” presumably in U.S.-Israeli airstrikes.
Can Iran rearm?
The Iranian military was already reeling under the effects of years of sanctions and previous military operations directed against it by Israel and the United States.
Clearly, its capabilities have been severely degraded by the intense U.S./Israeli airstrikes over the last few weeks.
Efforts to rearm will be blocked by the United States, with Trump declaring that any country supplying weapons to Iran will be “immediately tariffed, on any and all goods sold to the United States of America, 50 percent, effective immediately. There will be no exclusions or exemptions!”
This is largely focused on the idea that a major player like China could execute a strategic partnership with wounded Iran in exchange for a part of the country’s oil reserves or at least a steadier supply of energy at a deeply discounted rate. This would also extend Beijing’s ability to wield power throughout the region, and especially over and around the critical Strait of Hormuz. The idea of the spigot being turned off for a prolonged period of time from this region is all too real now, and China’s demand for energy imports is very high.
Russia, to a lesser degree, could step in as well, but for different reasons, although it is not in a position to provide Iran with all the armament it needs as the war in Ukraine rages on. Still, Trump’s 50 percent tariffs would have far less of an impact on Russia than on China.
Iran’s manufacturing base has been largely destroyed, according to the IDF and Pentagon, which will make reconstituting its military capabilities with internal armaments much more challenging, at least in the near term.
The ability of Tehran to support its proxies abroad has also been severely impacted by this conflict. This is on top of years of those forces being targeted by Israel and the United States. Even Iran’s airlift capacity has been heavily impacted, with aircraft used to support its nefarious operations abroad being destroyed.
At the same time, reports as of last week suggested that the Trump administration may well have overestimated the losses inflicted on the Iranian military.
According to a report last week from CNN, which it says was based on recent U.S. intelligence assessments, roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers were still intact, and thousands of one-way attack drones remained in its arsenal.
“They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region,” one source told CNN.
Also, Iran’s military personnel and internal security forces have lost some facilities and a limited number of people, but they remain largely intact.
What next for U.S. power in the Middle East?
Perhaps the question hardest to answer is how the war with Iran will affect U.S. influence in the Middle East.
Putting aside the more bombastic statements of victory from Iran, it is true to say that, while the Trump administration projected unmatched military power in Operation Epic Fury, its strategic effectiveness was more limited. This is something that has been picked up in Israel, too, with the outcome slammed by Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid.
Iran’s military — and civilian populace — suffered very heavy blows under sustained U.S. and Israeli attacks, but Tehran also maintained control of the Strait of Hormuz and continued to hit back with drone and missile strikes across the Gulf, and even exacted a toll on U.S. military assets.
Ultimately, Washington was reluctant to deploy ground troops, which would have driven casualty numbers up much higher, but overall, key rivals such as China and Russia may view the conflict as evidence of declining U.S. military power.
During the conflict, Trump threatened to walk away from NATO and slammed most of its major allies around the globe for not coming to help the U.S. and its cause. This sent a shockwave through its alliances. Trump’s deadline threat of total war was also unprecedented and will have a lasting impact, regardless of whether it was just a negotiating tactic or not.
The U.S. has also worn down its arsenal of advanced weaponry even further in a very public manner. This is especially true for air defense capabilities. China is watching this and all other aspects of the operation regarding its future designs on Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the relationship between the U.S. and its allies in the Arabian Peninsula appears to have been strengthened, and those countries will likely see major changes in the force posture of their militaries and their capabilities from lessons learned during the war. But still, this could change based on the long-term outcome of this war.
Overall, it remains to be seen how America’s reputation will be seen after the war, and what kind of effect it will have on alliances in the region and beyond.
At the same time, Iran’s economy is in critical condition. The country has been bombed thousands of times over the last month. Its leadership has been patched together, and regardless of conflicting estimates of what systems remain intact, its military is a shell of its previous self, which wasn’t in great shape to begin with.
While the regime survived the fighting, how it will be able to navigate a positive future for the country and its citizens, many of whom wanted the regime to fall prior to this war, remains to be seen. Meanwhile, there are still very well-armed, fanatical forces that hold major sway in the country, specifically the hardline IRGC. As we stated before the war began, the regime would be more likely to fall to it than a foreign power or the masses.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com