As U.S. President Donald Trump continues to mull his options for dealing with Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth arrived in the Caribbean to meet with regional leaders. The visit comes as the U.S. has built up a large military presence in the region and the world awaits what Trump will do next. You can catch up with our most recent coverage of the Caribbean operation in our story here.
“The Secretary will meet with President Luis Abinader, Minister of Defense Lt. Gen. Carlos Antonio Fernández Onofre and Cabinet officials to strengthen defense relationships and reaffirm America’s commitment to defend the homeland, protect our regional partners and ensure stability and security across the Americas,” according to the Pentagon. His visit follows a trip to the region by Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who returned to Washington last night.
Though Trump says he is open to discussions with Maduro that could avoid hostilities, the South American leader continues to show outward displays of defiance.
On Tuesday, Trump remained coy about his intentions for what has been dubbed Operation Southern Spear, ostensibly a counter-narcotics effort but one also aimed at pressuring Maduro.
“I might talk to him. We’ll see,” Trump told reporters Tuesday night aboard Air Force One in reference to Maduro. “But we’re discussing that with the different staffs. We might talk.”
Asked why he would want to talk to Maduro after his administration designated the cartel he allegedly leads a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), Trump noted that the Venezuelan leader has two options. As we previously discussed, the FTO designation opens the aperture on the ability for Trump to order kinetic operations against Venezuela.
“If we can save lives, we can do things the easy way, that’s fine,” Trump explained. “And if we have to do it the hard way that’s fine, too… I’m not going to tell you what the goal is. You should probably know what the goal is. But, they’ve caused a lot of problems. And they’ve sent millions of people into our country.”
For his part, Maduro tried to exude an aura of confidence on Tuesday, invoking the memory of national hero Simon Bolivar to rally a nation under the gun. You cannot travel far in Caracas or much of the rest of the country without coming upon a memorial to Bolivar, who liberated the country from Spain 200 years ago and remains highly revered.
Speaking at an event honoring that liberation, Maduro urged Venezuelans to fight “foreign aggressors” just as Bolivar did.
“We have to be capable of defending every inch of this blessed land from any sort of imperialist threat or aggression, wherever it comes from,” Maduro, clad in camouflage from head to toe, exclaimed. “I swear before our Lord Jesus Christ, that I will give my all for the victory of Venezuela.”
“We must be ready to defend every inch of this blessed land from imperialist threat or aggression, no matter where it comes from,” Maduro continued as he brandished a sword believed to have once belonged to Bolivar. “There is no excuse for anyone to fail at this decisive moment, for the existence of the Republic, no excuse.”
While the Trump administration insists that its efforts are ultimately aimed at stopping the flow of drugs into the United States, the president of Colombia told CNN that there is another motivation for the large military buildup.
Oil “is at the heart of the matter,” Gustavo Petro claimed to CNN in an exclusive interview, noting that Venezuela has what are considered the largest oil reserves in the world.
“So, that’s a negotiation about oil. I believe that is (US President Donald) Trump’s logic. He’s not thinking about the democratization of Venezuela, let alone the narco-trafficking,” he continued, adding that Venezuela is not considered a major drug producer and that only a relatively small portion of the global drugs trade flows through the country.”
Of course, Petro’s point of view has to be seen as coming from a leader who has been at odds with Trump. Since the American president returned to the White House, Petro “has harshly criticized the Trump administration’s immigration policies, its support for Israel and its military activity around Latin America,” the cable network noted. Trump, meanwhile, has sanctioned Petro for a perceived lack of support in drug interdiction efforts.
Whether Trump is considering offering Maduro an off-ramp before what could be airstrikes on targets in Venezuela or a covert action to depose the South American strongman remains unknown. However, there are indications that Maduro is not interested in a negotiated exit from power.
“The calculation for Maduro is that he will always be safer here than anywhere else,” Phil Gunson, an analyst in Caracas for the International Crisis Group, told The Wall Street Journal.
With a $50 million bounty on his head as the result of being a fugitive from U.S. drug charges, Maduro likely feels unsafe outside his cocoon of protection in Venezuela.
Beyond that, the list of countries that would take him and provide security is short. Russia or Cuba might, but as the Journal noted, refuge in a European capital or elsewhere would bring limited security from those seeking not just material reward, but also revenge after years of what many consider a despotic rule.
The public statements issued by both Trump and Maduro in recent days contrast with previous sentiments. While Trump has left speaking with Maduro as an option, he reportedly privately turned down de-escalation overtures from the South American leader. Meanwhile, though Maduro is putting on a brave face, it was said that he was open to leaving power in exchange for amnesty for him and his lieutenants, the lifting of the bounty and a comfortable exile, according to claims in a report from The Atlantic.
Meanwhile, there are 15,000 U.S. troops, a dozen ships and an array of aircraft in the Caribbean waiting for orders. To highlight that presence, the military has produced a steady stream of videos pushed out on social media. They show U.S. forces on ships like the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, or land-based in Puerto Rico, training and preparing.
These visuals are part of the Trump administration’s increasing pressure campaign on Maduro. On Nov. 24, Air Forces Southern Command publicized another Bomber Attack Demonstration, with B-52H Stratofortresses from Minot Air Force Base conducting the mission in the Caribbean. It was at least the second such demonstration in a week.
As we explained in an earlier story, the B-52s “are capable of unleashing waves of standoff cruise missiles and can carry a host of other conventional munitions that can be employed against targets on land and at sea. Though the Venezuelan armed forces have limited air defense capabilities, they could still pose a threat. Standoff strikes from aircraft like the B-52 and other assets would be a likely component of any future U.S. direct action against targets inside the country to help reduce risks to friendly forces. They could even target air defense systems to help clear the way for follow-on operations.”
All the while, American men and women will spend another holiday away from home, a fact of life in the service. Whether they will be pressed into action against Maduro remains unknown.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com