SACRAMENTO — Maybe we’ve all been wrong — we political junkies. Because it is possible, after all, for a Republican to be elected California governor next year.
I know, do the math: It’s impossible to elect a Republican governor in this deep blue state, right? Wrong. Calculate again and it’s conceivable that a GOP candidate could replace termed-out Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom.
That would turn California upside down politically and be an upset for the ages.
It’s not at all likely. But contrary to common wisdom, it’s within the realm of possibility — if too many ambitious Democrats leap into the race and keep running. Then they could splinter the vote.
There’d be too many Democratic candidates dividing up the party pie and ending up with small slices in the primary election. Just two Republicans could split the GOP vote. In that scenario, the Republican pair could both finish ahead of any Democrat.
Remember, in California’s open primary system, the top two vote-getters advance to the November general election regardless of their party affiliation. No other candidate is allowed on the ballot. And write-in candidacies aren’t permitted.
So it’s remotely possible for two Republicans to exclusively compete for the California governorship next November — with no way to elect a Democrat.
“Given that there are so many Democrats running without name ID and no front-runner, it‘s becoming more plausible, if still unlikely,” says Republican consultant Rob Stutzman.
Tony Quinn, a Republican political analyst, says that “Democrats are taking a real chance with too many people running.
“It would be funny if they woke up the morning after the primary and two Republicans were in the runoff. They could do nothing about that. Even the California Supreme Court couldn’t save them.”
As of this writing, there are eight major — more or less — Democrats competing against each other. At least two others also are thinking about entering the race. Only two major Republicans are running.
Let’s review the core political stats:
Of California’s 23 million registered voters, roughly 45% are Democrats, 25% are Republicans and 23% are independents who tend to lean left. Another 7% are members of minor parties.
American politics has arguably never been more polarized. Unlike past eras, voters today mostly stay within their own parties when casting ballots.
No Republican has won a statewide race in California since 2006. That’s an alluring fact for Democratic gubernatorial wannabes and one reason why so many have been drawn into the 2026 race.
For Republicans, the more Democrats the merrier.
The Democratic field — basically in the order of their independent poll rankings — includes:
Former Orange County Rep. Katie Porter, former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee, state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, billionaire hedge fund founder Tom Steyer, former legislator Ian Calderon and San Francisco Bay Area Rep. Eric Swalwell, who hasn’t been a candidate long enough to be listed in polls.
Additionally, two other Democrats have been seriously thinking about running: billionaire Los Angeles developer Rick Caruso and state Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta.
“All the chatter and the polling shows voters are looking at the field like a hungry person who keeps reopening the fridge, hoping something worth eating shows up,” says Bonta advisor Dan Newman.
The filing deadline is March 6 for getting on the June 2 primary ballot.
The two major Republican candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and conservative commentator Steve Hilton.
A late October poll by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies showed that a vast 44% of registered voters were undecided. Republican Bianco led all candidates with 13%, followed by Democrat Porter, 11%, and Becerra and Hilton each at 8%.
Every Democrat’s goal is to qualify for the November faceoff against a Republican. Then the Democrat would be home free, given the makeup of California’s electorate. But if two Democrats competed against each other, it could be a tough fight.
Political data expert Paul Mitchell ran 1,000 simulations of the primary and found that “the most common outcome” was a Democrat and Republican finishing in the top two.
There was a 15% to 20% possibility of two Democrats surviving the primary — and a 7% to 10% chance of two Republicans shutting out all Democrats.
Mitchell estimates that Democratic candidates will draw around 59% of the primary vote, Republicans 38% and minority parties 3%.
As for a shutout of Democrats, Mitchell asserts: “It’s easy to say it will never happen. But we’ve seen it happen in congressional and legislative races” in both parties — ”2% to 3% end up in these flukey contests.”
Mitchell points to “the most famous example” when Redlands Rep. Pete Aguilar, now chair of the House Democratic Caucus, initially ran for Congress in 2012. He lost in the primary when four Democrats split the vote and only two Republicans ran.
“It cost Democrats a seat they were virtually guaranteed to win in a general election with President Obama on the ballot,” Mitchell says. Obama carried the Democratic-leaning district by 16 percentage points. But there was no Democratic House candidate because too many ran in the primary.
If a Republican ever were elected governor, the lucky victor probably would instantly face a Democratic recall effort, Stutzman says. “Democrats would say ‘this a fluke who doesn’t represent the state.’”
It was the GOP that set the precedent for gubernatorial recalls. Republicans recalled Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and installed Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003 — then tried unsuccessfully to boot Newsom in 2021.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The whole idea of electing a Republican governor seems wacko.
Of course, wacko things happen in today’s politics.
What else you should be reading
The must-read: Californians sharply divided along partisan lines about immigration raids, poll finds
TK: This rural hospital closed, putting lives at risk. Is it the start of a ‘tidal wave’?
The L.A. Times Special: What a scandal! (Or not.) How things have changed
Until next week,
George Skelton
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