Times of Troy: It’s time for Lincoln Riley to finally beat Oregon

Welcome back to the Times of Troy newsletter, where we’ve reached a critical fork in the road for the Lincoln Riley era.

The soft part of the schedule is behind USC. Oregon awaits next Saturday. The time is now for Riley and USC, just like the billboards around L.A. have been insisting for months.

That this moment arrives after Saturday’s uninspiring escape from Rutgers only amplifies the pressure on USC’s coach. Against arguably the worst team in the Big Ten, the Trojans were once again plagued by many of the same road woes that Riley has failed for four years to solve. USC’s defense, now on its third coordinator under Riley, was largely a disaster. Even the offense, with another Heisman Trophy candidate at quarterback, looked clunky and out of sync.

Now, Riley is out of time to iron out these issues. Because there is no more important game for USC this season than next Saturday. Outside of the 2022 Pac-12 title game, which went quite poorly for him, I’d argue it’s the most important game of Riley’s entire tenure to date.

Riley has yet to beat Oregon as USC’s coach, while Dan Lanning and the Ducks have run circles around the Trojans, on and off the field, during the four-plus years they’ve both been coaching out West. Oregon may have never won a national title, but has been to the College Football Playoff in three out of those four years. USC has never been to the Playoff. The two teams have become legitimate rivals over that time. But in two meetings with Oregon under Riley, there’s never been any doubt about who’s the better team.

For a brief moment, early in this season, it seemed like that might be shifting. Oregon was stunned by Oklahoma State, just two weeks ago, leading to real questions about whether the Ducks are the Playoff contender they were made out to be.

That loss, though, actually ratcheted up the importance for Riley. With Oregon appearing this vulnerable, there are no excuses for USC or its coach if they don’t win this game. No matter the situation that Riley inherited, the Trojans should have what it takes, by Year 5, to compete with Oregon. Full stop.

That’s the standard that USC was expecting in shelling out over $11 million per year to its football coach. But in four-plus seasons under Riley, the Trojans have just six wins against ranked opponents and have consistently blown their biggest games.

Think, for a moment, of Riley’s biggest win at USC. Are you having a hard time conjuring it? That’s because of the six ranked teams that USC has beaten under Riley, all of them finished with four losses that season.

Clay Helton had three top-five wins at USC through his first 18 games as head coach. Meanwhile, in almost five years and 57 games, I’d argue Riley still doesn’t have a single great win.

He can change that Saturday. But if Riley can’t lead USC past Oregon now, after all this time, who’s to say he ever will?

“House of Troy”: Chapter 1 drops Sept. 22

Twenty five years ago, USC’s football program was in a bad spot.

The Trojans hadn’t been relevant in over a decade, and Paul Hackett had just been fired as head coach. USC needed a new direction. But its search for Hackett’s replacement was going poorly. Two coaches — from Oregon and Oregon State, no less — had already turned them down. That’s when Daryl Gross, the USC official in charge of the search, turned his attention to a twice-failed NFL coach.

Pete Carroll.

His hire would turn out to be a seminal moment in the history of Trojan football. But that was not how folks saw it at the time.

“There’s legendary stories of fax machines just blowing up and paper after paper coming through,” said Rocky Seto, who was a grad assistant at the time. “People weren’t happy.”

Bill Plaschke, The Times columnist, wrote a column at the time ripping the hire. Carroll himself called Plaschke after that, begging for a shot.

“All he kept saying,” Plaschke said, “was just gimme a chance.”

Well, it turned out OK for Carroll and the Trojans. They won back-to-back national titles and nearly won a third during his tenure as coach.

It’s what came after that, as USC tried to cling on to the Carroll era, that’s the subject of a new narrative podcast series from LA Times and LA Times Studios, House of Troy. Starting with Carroll’s hire a quarter-century ago, we’ll walk you through how USC rose to college football prominence and how it all came crashing down once Carroll left.

The first chapter of House of Troy drops on Sept. 22, with new episodes coming every week after that. Before then, be sure to subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

—King Miller is the clear RB1 at the moment. USC may view Miller and Waymond Jordan as starting running backs, but there’s no doubting who has taken the reins at the top of that rotation. Both are averaging over five yards per carry. But Miller has at least 15 carries in all four games, while Jordan hasn’t eclipsed 11. Personally, I’m a bit surprised by that divide given how great Jordan looked before his injury last season. It makes me wonder if he’s all the way back from his ankle surgeries.

—The receiver rotation is still up in the air right now. With Trent Mosley out indefinitely, USC opened the game with Kayden Dixon-Wyatt, Corey Simms and Zacharyus Williams as its top three wideouts. Dixon-Wyatt is deservedly locked in that spot, while Simms balled it in his 20 snaps, catching four passes for 72 yards despite missing some time during the game due to injury. Hines ended up playing more snaps, but had a key drop on third down that we’d be talking much more about if USC hadn’t gone for it and converted on fourth. Williams played in the slot, but had just one catch. The real mystery here is Terrell Anderson, who was dressed and not on the injury report, but didn’t play a single snap on offense. Anderson was viewed, at one point, as a key contributor, so it’s not clear what happened.

—Kaylon Miller replaced Hayden Treter as the starting left guard. The move was a bit unexpected, given how Treter played through three games. Treter still played 28 snaps to Miller’s 40 against Rutgers, but with a very good Oregon defensive line on tap, the offensive line will be tested next week unlike it has all season. Miller has always had the respect of offensive line coach Zach Hanson. We’ll know at the start of the game next week whom he trusts the most in that spot.

—USC isn’t built to withstand injuries in the secondary. No unit on the entire roster has more doubts about its depth, and against Rutgers, USC had to test that depth more than it would like. Top corner Jontez Williams only played 22 snaps, while slot corner Alex Graham only played 15. Kennedy Urlacher and Rock Hill took their places, and while they did a fine job, the ripple effects of one injury on the position could be significant. Behind those players are a lot of question marks. So USC better hope that they’re all healthy heading into Oregon.

—USC men’s hoops will play four Big Ten road games in 10 days to start 2027. Which, on its face, seems patently insane. But after a screwy start to the Big Ten schedule a year ago, coach Eric Musselman actually asked for a slate exactly like this. The reason? His team doesn’t have to travel back and forth twice to the East Coast. In this case, they will have to travel from Bloomington, Ind. to College Park, Md. But that’s much more doable than an extra 10 hours of flying.

This week, in 2006 …

After hosting College Gameday and beating No. 19 Nebraska at home, USC opens its Pac-10 season on the road with a dominant defensive performance at Arizona, winning 20-3.

Led by new inside linebacker Rey Maualuga, the Trojans didn’t allow a single point until the fourth quarter. The offense, meanwhile, finally found a running back to lean on. With Reggie Bush and LenDale White both off to the NFL and USC still waiting for someone to step up in their place, Emmanuel Moody heeded the call. He rushed for 130 yards and a score as the Trojans stood pat at No. 3 in the AP poll.

Polling the people

We asked, “After three comfortable wins in the non-conference schedule, do you feel better about the Trojans’ trajectory than you did at the start of the season?”

After 1,523 votes:

Nothing has changed, 47.4%
Yes, I feel better, 45.8%
No, I feel worse, 6.8%

Olympic sports spotlight

A brutal start to the season isn’t getting much better in Big Ten play for USC’s women’s soccer team. After starting the conference slate by being shut out, 5-0, by Michigan State, USC was shut out again by Purdue, 2-0, and then managed a tie against Oregon, 1-1.

The Trojans have scored one or fewer goals in seven of their nine matches this season and are 0-5-2 in those scenarios. They need to produce more offense — and stat.

What I’m watching this week

It tends to take at least a season for a sitcom to really find its rhythm, and so far, that’s been the case for “The Paper,” the spinoff of The Office which dropped its second season on Peacock recently. The first season got the journalism right, but the narrative was a bit clunky, as it sorted out who of its characters should be leading the way.

Fortunately, it seems like they’ve figured it out. Especially in the case of Domnhall Gleeson’s lead editor character, Ned Sampson, who I find far more likable in Season 2.

In case you missed it

No. 12 USC defeats Rutgers in Big Ten opener, but defensive woes detract from win

USC freshman star Luke Wafle’s football roots date back nearly a century

USC freshman star receiver Trent Mosley to miss Rutgers game

Chad Baker-Mazara sues USC, accuses Eric Musselman of ‘racially charged’ tirade

Until next time …

That concludes today’s newsletter. If you have any feedback, ideas for improvement or things you’d like to see, email me at ryan.kartje@latimes.com, and follow me on X at @Ryan_Kartje. To get this newsletter in your inbox, click here.