When the Chargers lost to Houston, it foreclosed on some options for them. The division race and bid for the No. 1 seed were out the window. Now, this finale is about getting out of Denver healthy and prepared for the playoffs.
Still on the table, though, is a chance for an unblemished record in AFC West play. The Chargers swept Las Vegas and Kansas City, and posted a 23-20 victory over the Broncos in Week 3.
This is a more polished and confident Denver team than earlier in the season, however, and the Broncos since have won 13 of 14.
The AFC’s No. 1 seed is Denver’s to lose, so if they beat the Chargers, the road to the Super Bowl will go through the Mile High City.
How the Chargers can win: With Justin Herbert sitting out, the Chargers’ path to winning shifts dramatically. The emphasis will be on ball control, field position and avoiding mistakes. Trey Lance’s mobility becomes a weapon if the Chargers lean into it, using the run game, designed quarterback movement and play-action to keep Denver’s pass rush zeroing in. The Broncos are vulnerable to explosive plays when teams stay patient and force them out of their comfort zone. If the Chargers can establish even a modest run game, it opens opportunities downfield off misdirection and play-action. Defensively, Los Angeles must do what it’s done best under Jim Harbaugh: limit big plays, force long drives and make Denver settle for field goals. If the Chargers protect the ball and avoid penalties, they are capable of keeping the game close into the fourth quarter, and in a low-possession game, that’s all they need.
How the Broncos can win: Denver’s formula is simple and familiar: play clean, disciplined football and force the Chargers into a low-scoring game, which is much easier with a backup at quarterback. The Broncos have thrived in tight games by limiting mistakes, relying on their pass rush and letting their defense control tempo. They lead the league in sacks and consistently generate pressure without blitzing, which will be especially important against a Chargers offense starting Lance. If Denver can stop the run early, force Lance into obvious passing situations and avoid costly penalties, it can dictate the game. Bo Nix doesn’t have to be spectacular. He just needs to protect the ball and take advantage of short fields. The Broncos are comfortable winning games 20-17 or 23-20, and they will be happy to be in one of those with the Chargers.