Former U.S. envoy says Kim seeks U.S. ties as nuclear state

May 1 (Asia Today) — Former U.S. Six-Party Talks envoy Joseph DeTrani said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un still wants to normalize relations with the United States but is demanding that Washington recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state.

DeTrani said U.S. leverage in negotiations with North Korea has weakened sharply compared with the period around the 2005 Six-Party Talks joint statement, as Pyongyang has significantly expanded its nuclear and missile capabilities and China and Russia have effectively shielded the North.

He opposed calls by some Korea specialists in the United States for arms control negotiations with North Korea, saying Washington should maintain complete, verifiable denuclearization as its ultimate goal. At the same time, he said the United States should pursue interim freeze measures, including a halt to nuclear testing and production of fissile material.

DeTrani made the remarks Wednesday during a presentation and discussion with Greg Scarlatoiu, president of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, at the annual International Council on Korean Studies conference, “Challenges of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance 2026,” held at the Hudson Institute in Washington.

DeTrani previously served as director of the National Counterproliferation Center under the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and as U.S. representative to the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization. He spent 13 years handling negotiations with North Korea and participated in intelligence work that first confirmed the North’s highly enriched uranium program.

DeTrani said the Sept. 19, 2005, joint statement from the fourth round of the Six-Party Talks was meaningful because it explicitly confirmed North Korea’s commitment to abandon “all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programs.”

The statement also committed North Korea to returning at an early date to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards. The United States affirmed that it had no nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula and no intention to attack or invade North Korea with nuclear or conventional weapons.

But DeTrani said North Korea refused U.S. demands during both plenary and bilateral talks to explicitly include its highly enriched uranium program in the agreement, explaining why the final text did not directly mention the program.

He said North Korea would not have agreed to the 1994 Agreed Framework if Washington had tried to explicitly include highly enriched uranium, adding that Pyongyang has consistently shown since around 2000 that it wanted to pursue such a program for nuclear weapons development.

DeTrani said the U.S. negotiating “tool kit” was relatively strong in 2005 but has lost much of its effectiveness by 2026.

He said Wang Yi, now China’s foreign minister, played an active and constructive role as chair of the Six-Party Talks at the time. Today, however, China and Russia are effectively accepting North Korea as a nuclear weapons state and blocking additional U.N. Security Council sanctions, he said.

DeTrani said China still controls about 90% of North Korea’s foreign trade and oil supply, but added that it is difficult to expect Beijing to use that leverage to move Pyongyang in the direction Washington wants.

On Russia, DeTrani said North Korea is likely receiving assistance for its satellite, nuclear and missile programs in exchange for sending more than 12,000 troops, artillery shells and ballistic missiles to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, following the June 2024 comprehensive strategic partnership treaty between Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Still, DeTrani warned against assuming that the alignment among North Korea, China and Russia is permanent. He said historical distrust between Pyongyang and Beijing, along with geopolitical competition between Moscow and Beijing, remains a source of internal friction.

DeTrani estimated North Korea now has 50 to 60 nuclear weapons based on fissile materials such as highly enriched uranium and plutonium and could expand that arsenal to 100 weapons within several years.

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi warned during a visit to South Korea on April 15 that North Korea is expanding uranium enrichment capabilities at Yongbyon and at a new facility resembling the Kangson enrichment site in satellite imagery, describing the program as having advanced to a “very serious” level.

DeTrani said North Korea recently displayed the Hwasong-20, a solid-fuel, road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle capability and an estimated range of 15,000 kilometers, demonstrating a potential ability to reach the entire United States.

He said North Korea has more than 400 ballistic missiles, ranging from short-range systems to long-range intercontinental missiles, and is focusing on solid-fuel, road-mobile short-range systems such as the KN-23, KN-24 and KN-25.

DeTrani also said Kim recently visited the second 5,000-ton destroyer, Choe Hyon, and that North Korea aims to build a third and fourth destroyer while securing 12 nuclear-capable destroyers by 2030.

He said North Korea is constructing an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered submarine, a move he described as strengthening the second leg of a nuclear triad intended to preserve retaliatory nuclear capability even after a first strike.

DeTrani said another major change is North Korea’s nuclear doctrine, which now allows for automatic preemptive nuclear use if there is an imminent or perceived imminent threat to the leadership or command and control system.

“With satellite and imagery intelligence, I think we have verification capabilities and will not be deceived,” DeTrani said. “But North Korea remains a black hole, and there is still a great deal of information we cannot access.”

DeTrani said Kim, like his father Kim Jong Il and grandfather Kim Il Sung, understands that normalization with the United States could restore international confidence and open the door to institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.

He said Kim’s request at the February 2019 Hanoi summit for relief from U.N. Security Council sanctions imposed since 2016, in exchange for steps related to the Yongbyon nuclear facility, reflected that calculation.

DeTrani said President Donald Trump had built a degree of trust with Kim, and that Kim has conditionally signaled a willingness to meet Trump again.

But DeTrani said in his presentation that it would not be surprising if North Korea had given up on the United States and South Korea, given the Iran conflict, tensions between the United States and NATO, and China and Russia’s de facto acceptance of North Korea’s nuclear status.

He said if Washington recognizes North Korea as a nuclear weapons state, Pyongyang would claim victory and use that recognition to extract more concessions from China and Russia.

Asked about proposals for nuclear nonproliferation or arms control talks with North Korea, DeTrani said, “I absolutely disagree.”

Such an approach, he said, would reinforce the North Korean regime’s belief that the United States will eventually accept it as a nuclear weapons state and would damage the broader nuclear nonproliferation system.

DeTrani identified North Korea’s nuclear program as the biggest challenge facing the U.S.-South Korea alliance in 2026. He also cited additional alliance issues, including debate over the possible use of about 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea in a Taiwan Strait or South China Sea contingency and support for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260501010000029