There were long faces in Brussels in early October when Czech parliamentary elections handed a victory to Andrej Babiš’s ANO party. And even longer ones a month later when Babiš, short of a majority, announced plans to form a coalition with the far right, pro-Russian SPD and the eccentric, libertarian Motorists alliance.
Although the jury is still out on whether this new populist government will join those in Slovakia and Hungary to form an anti-EU front in Central Europe, it will look very different from the pro-EU, pro-Ukraine Spoulu (Together) government it replaces, headed by Petr Fiala.
Babiš Returns to The Czech Republic — and Repositions Himself
Returning to the premiership—Babiš, aged 71, was prime minister from 2017 to 2021 and before that deputy prime minister and finance minister from 2014—is a major personal victory for the Czech Republic’s richest man, estimated to be worth over $4 billion. Babiš’ made his fortune through his holding company, Agrofert, the now-huge agribusiness and chemicals powerhouse he founded in 1993.
Babiš has moved steadily to the right, with ANO’s populism a long way from the centrist positions ANO (YES) championed when Babiš set up the party in 2012. Although dubbed the Czech Trump for his anti-establishment outbursts and authoritarian rhetoric, observers believe Babiš Mark II will be more measured, favoring stability and prioritizing his business interests and those of the Czech Republic.
“An ANO-led government will face institutional constraints on its near-term ability to implement significant policy shifts, notably the outgoing coalition’s constitutional majority in the upper house [the Senate], where it holds 60 of 81 seats,” argues Malgorzata Krzywicka, director, Sovereigns at Fitch Ratings. “[We expect] a broadly prudent fiscal policy, although it is likely to adjust foreign policy, notably regarding alignment with some EU priorities.”
Babiš, Like Trump, Has a Second Act
Another potential issue for Babiš is centrist, pro-EU President Petr Pavel’s power to veto ministerial appoints and legislation. Meanwhile, the prospect of a populist anti-EU front amongst the four Visegrad countries must be measured against next April’s parliamentary elections in Hungary. Polls suggest Prime Minister Viktor Orban is running well behind his pro-EU challenger, Péter Magyar.
That said, Babiš’s return to power—like US President Donald Trump’s, after a gap of four years—will likely mean change.
“Divergence from Spolu’s strongly pro-Western stance is likely, for example over providing munitions to Ukraine,” reckons Krzywicka. It could lead to disputes with the EU in such areas as energy or migration, she added.
That said, “we think these are highly unlikely to intensify sufficiently to have consequences, such as the suspension of EU funds.”