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(Bloomberg) — Advisers to President Donald Trump are sketching out potential Russia sanctions he could lift or tweak — including the oil price cap — if there’s progress in talks with Moscow on ending its war in Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter. 

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The possible move would mark another dramatic policy divergence between Washington and its allies in London and Brussels, where officials have indicated they won’t prematurely lift sanctions against Russia imposed after its full-scale invasion, said the people, who requested anonymity as the discussions are private. 

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The prospect of the US easing some Russian restrictions doesn’t preclude Washington from tightening the screws on Moscow via separate measures, the people said. Trump said on Friday that he’s “strongly considering” banking sanctions as well as tariffs on Russia, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the administration won’t hesitate to go “all in” should it provide leverage in peace negotiations. 

The White House didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. 

The US has publicly signaled no sanctions relief would be granted prior to a formal deal, while European officials expect Washington would first consider using waivers rather than lifting restrictions entirely.

Originally implemented in 2022 by the Group of Seven, the price cap of $60 per barrel on Russia’s crude exports struggled to deal a body blow to the resource-reliant economy. Among other steps, Moscow mustered a “shadow fleet” of mostly older tankers with no ties to Western nations, allowing it to sustain flows to major consumer countries such as India and China. 

While British and European officials have raised objections to abolishing the price cap, they’ve conceded that the emergence of the Russian shadow fleet — now estimated to handle the majority of the nation’s oil trade — has diluted the policy’s impact. Bloomberg News reported last month that the G-7 was considering adaptations to the strategy. 

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Any shift in US policy could have major ramifications for how Europe polices the trade. The EU imposed a ban on transporting Russian oil by sea to third countries — by focusing on limiting access to services such as insurance — with an exemption for cargoes sold under the price cap. If the cap were abolished, the embargo would take full effect. 

An early barometer of the Trump administration’s approach to Russia sanctions will come next week when a general license permitting a wind-down in purchases of the country’s energy products is set to expire. If the Treasury Department allows the exemption on some transactions to lapse, it could ratchet up pressure on the Kremlin.

US sanctions policy is closely tracked by commodities traders as any hint of Washington tightening or loosening restrictions on oil-rich nations like Russia, Iran and Venezuela can swing the market. 

In his remarks on Thursday, Bessent said the US plans to increase sanctions on Iran, aiming to “shutdown” its oil sector. Days earlier, the Treasury Department gave Chevron Corp. one month to stop producing oil in Venezuela, a move intended to put pressure on President Nicolas Maduro’s regime.

—With assistance from Daniel Flatley.

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