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(Bloomberg) — Before the trading day starts we bring you a digest of the key news and events that are likely to move markets. Today we look at:

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• Earnings big picture
• Consumption revival
• Budget month blues

Good morning, this is Ashutosh Joshi, an equities reporter in Mumbai. Indian markets have recovered after a difficult start to the week, and investors are now focused on Saturday’s budget. Earnings reports from Sun Pharmaceutical Industries and Oil & Natural Gas Corp. later today will be closely watched, while marketwide rollovers in equity futures remain lower than the three-month average. Meanwhile, Asia grapples with potential Trump tariffs and key earnings from Samsung Electronics Co. and SK Hynix Inc.

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Seasonality may shape post-budget moves

Saturday’s budget will set the market’s tone for the coming weeks — perhaps even months. However, short-term traders will be weighing in seasonality. The Nifty 50 tends to end the budget month in the red, averaging a decline of 1% over the last two decades. This is often due to the unwinding of positions built in anticipation of market-friendly measures. What is different this time is that the market has already corrected in the run-up to the big event.

Heavyweights offer stability as earnings season wobbles

Three weeks into the earnings season, the picture remains uncertain, with more companies missing analyst estimates than beating them. However, there’s room for hope. Analysts at Jefferies believe the numbers aren’t as bad as feared. While consumer firms have disappointed, banks and IT companies — which carry significant weight in the index — have delivered a decent performance. With the economic activity showing signs of bottoming out, the brokerage expects a better March quarter.

Consumption firms get a boost as Dabur sees rural recovery

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Amid the overall earnings gloom, Dabur India’s performance should hearten bulls backing the consumption theme. The company’s better-than-expected earnings signal a resurgence in rural markets, likely giving rural-focused companies an edge over their urban-centric peers this year. Stocks like Dabur India, Marico, and Hero MotoCorp could gain from this trend.

Analysts actions:

• Voltas Raised to Buy at Antique Stock Broking; PT 1,779 rupees
• Navin Fluorine Raised to Buy at DAM Capital; PT 4,543 rupees
• GAIL India Raised to Buy at Avendus Spark; PT 210 rupees

Three great reads from Bloomberg today:

• Federated Hermes Says Indian Stocks Battling a ‘A Perfect Storm’
• Trump Barrels Toward Tariff Showdown With Canada, Mexico, China
• Big Take: When a $100,000 Bonus on Wall Street Is Worth Far Less

And, finally.. 

The past three sessions have provided some respite to battered indexes, though most continue to trend lower save for the NSE Nifty Bank Index and its sibling, the NSE Nifty Financial Services Index. The duo has broken out on their daily charts after weeks of struggle, helped by a rising relative strength index. As we approach the budget, the cost of hedging for Nifty Bank remains higher compared with Nifty 50, but breakouts can spell good news for a sector that holds the largest weight in the benchmark index. 

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—With assistance from Savio Shetty and Kartik Goyal.

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