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How late-season schedule changes impact the NFL playoff picture

The NFL regular season is turning down the stretch and the playoff picture is coming into focus, and that means not just the teams but the league’s scheduling crew is hard at work.

The Chargers, who play at Dallas on Sunday, can secure a postseason berth with a victory and some help from a team or two. Coupled with a win over the Cowboys, the Chargers need Las Vegas to win at Houston (unlikely) or San Francisco to win at Indianapolis (more likely) so they can rest easy knowing they’re at least in the playoffs for the second consecutive season under Jim Harbaugh.

Although the Rams have already qualified for the playoffs, they need to regain their balance after a spirit-snapping loss at Seattle on Thursday that likely cost them a chance at the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

Here’s a look at the upcoming schedule for the end of this season and beginning of next, along with decisions that need to be made:

— Why did the league schedule Houston at the Chargers for Saturday of Week 17?

The game was always a candidate for that 1:30 p.m. slot on NFL Network, and Seattle at Carolina was also under consideration.

The league liked Texans-Chargers on Saturday because both of those clubs likely will be playing in January — maybe against each other again — and if that game were moved to Sunday afternoon, it would be going head-to-head against Fox’s national game, Philadelphia at Buffalo, a potential Super Bowl preview.

So the NFL wanted to do the Texans and Chargers a solid and give them the national stage to themselves.

— Rams at Atlanta in Week 17 isn’t a fantastic Monday night game for Week 17, especially with the Falcons currently at 5-9. But with all the games spread throughout the week of Christmas, there weren’t a lot of great replacement options.

The league didn’t move Texans-Chargers into that slot for good reason. Because whoever plays in that “Monday Night Football” slot — it’s staying Rams-Falcons — won’t be a candidate for a Saturday game in the final weekend.

So by moving Texans-Chargers to Saturday, both those teams are in play for the two Saturday spots in Week 18. The Chargers finish at Denver, and the Texans play host to Indianapolis. Either or both of those games could wind up on ESPN for those finishing Saturday games.

— The NFL originally slated Cincinnati at Miami for this week’s Sunday night game but last week decided to move New England at Baltimore into that time slot. That’s notable because it’s the first flex of the season, which is an unusually low number. Typically, there have been three or four flexes to this point.

Why only one? There are multiple reasons. First, the league’s scheduling crew had a pretty clear crystal ball in May, a good idea for which teams would still be in the mix. Credit to those folks.

But the bar for flexing games is also a little higher than it used to be. The NFL is cautious about inconveniencing 75,000 fans for a relatively small bump in viewership. What’s more, with all the new windows and partners — Netflix, Amazon Prime, Peacock, Paramount+ — there are fewer games to go around. Even if the league wanted to flex, there are fewer options. The traditional Sunday inventory is a lot thinner than it used to be.

— It’s worth noting that the league’s philosophy on moving games around is it flexes out of a game that’s falling apart, it doesn’t flex into a better game because the network or streaming service doesn’t happen to like the game it has.

Cincinnati-Miami was a no-brainer flex candidate back in October when both teams were reeling. But then Joe Burrow came back for the Bengals, and the Dolphins started winning, and it got interesting for a while. But then Cincinnati got shut out last week by Baltimore, and Miami just benched its quarterback. Flex was back on.

So what to flex into? The thought was, yes, the NFL can move Patriots-Ravens into that Sunday window for NBC, and at least it can leave behind Kansas City-Tennessee for CBS. Everybody figured the Chiefs would be fighting for their postseason lives. That wasn’t the case. Kansas City was eliminated last week and lost Patrick Mahomes to a season-ending knee injury. Chiefs-Titans isn’t nearly as interesting as anticipated.

It could have been an ugly Sunday for CBS, but the network wound up with Pittsburgh-Detroit for its national game. That very easily could have been the far-less-tantalizing Buffalo at Cleveland.

— We’re heading into a postseason with no Kansas City, no Dallas, maybe no Baltimore or Pittsburgh — one of them is going to miss out — and with the rise of Chicago, possibly no Green Bay or Detroit.

A lot of those traditional anchor teams could be watching from their couches.

That means the NFL will have to make some new decisions about who to prioritize in postseason scheduling, perhaps looking with fresh eyes at clubs such as Seattle, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Jacksonville and others. Who are the ones with the most national appeal?

And that rolls into next season. How does the league dole out those big national windows. With Kansas City missing the playoffs, and Mahomes recovering from a major knee injury, do the Chiefs recede into the background after a decade of division titles and deep playoff runs?

Have the Bears broken through? They’re 10-4. At 12-2, Denver looks to be back and set up to keep it going. Heading into Thursday night’s game, the Rams were as hot as any team in the league, and the Chargers could finally get Justin Herbert that inaugural playoff victory.

The Steelers have won two in a row, and could wind up making a postseason run. If so, what does Aaron Rodgers do next season, and how will the club move forward?

The NFL leaned heavily into Washington after one outstanding season, giving them eight nationally televised games this season. That bet didn’t pay off; the Commanders are 4-10.

It’s the game behind the games, and those decisions are taking shape.

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Veteran leadership at forefront of Chargers’ late-season surge

Denzel Perryman quickly listed name after name as he dove deep into his mental roster of the 2015 Chargers.

Manti Teʻo, Melvin Ingram, Kavell Conner and Donald Butler took Perryman under their wing, the Chargers linebacker said. The 11-year veteran said he relied on older teammates when he entered the NFL as they helped him adjust to the schedule and regimen of professional football.

“When I was a young guy,” Perryman said, “my head was all over the place — just trying to get the gist of the NFL. They taught me how to be where my mind is.”

With the Chargers (10-4) entering the final stretch of the season and on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth heading into Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1), veterans have played an important role in the team winning six of its last seven games.

A win over the Cowboys coupled with either a loss or tie by the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon or an Indianapolis Colts loss or tie on Monday night would secure a playoff berth for the Chargers.

Perryman, who recorded a season-best nine tackles in the Chargers’ win over the Kansas City Chiefs last week, credits Philip Rivers and the rest of the Chargers’ veterans for showing him “how to be a pro” a decade ago. Now he’s passing along those lessons to younger players in a transfer of generational knowledge across the Chargers’ locker room.

“When I came in as a young guy, I thought this happens every year,” safety Derwin James Jr. said of winning, starting his career on a 12-4 Chargers team in 2018. “Remember the standard. Remember, whatever we’re doing now, to uphold the standard, so that way, when guys change, coaches change, anything changes, the standard remains.”

Running off the field at Arrowhead Stadium, third-year safety Daiyan Henley charged at a celebrating Tony Jefferson, a veteran mentor at his position who was waiting for teammates after being ejected for an illegal hit on Chiefs wide receiver Tyquan Thornton.

After the game Jefferson and Henley hopped around like schoolchildren on the playground. That’s the atmosphere the veterans want to create, Jefferson said, one in which younger players in the secondary can turn to him.

“That’s what we’re here for,” Jefferson said. “For them to watch us and follow, follow our lead, and see how we do our thing.”

It’s not just the veteran stars that are making a difference. Marcus Williams, a 29-year-old safety with 109 games of NFL experience, replaced Jefferson against the Chiefs after being elevated from the practice squad. The 2017 second-round pick played almost every snap in Jefferson’s place, collecting four tackles.

“That just starts with the culture coach [Jim] Harbaugh creates,” defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said. “It’s really a 70-man roster.”

Harbaugh highlighted defensive lineman/fullback Scott Matlock’s blocking technique — a ba-boop, ba-boop, as Harbaugh put it and mimed with his arms — on designed runs as an example of a veteran bolstering an offensive line trying to overcome the absence of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.

Harbaugh said his father, Jack, taught Matlock the ba-boop, ba-boop blocking technique during an August practice.

“He’s severely underrated as an athlete,” quarterback Justin Herbert said of the 6-foot-4, 296-pound Matlock, who also catches passes in the flat as a fullback.

With three games left in the regular season, Jefferson said the focus is on replicating the postseason-like efforts they gave in consecutive wins over the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

“It was good that they were able to get a taste of that,” Jefferson said of his younger teammates playing against last season’s Super Bowl teams, “because these games down the stretch are really what’s to come in the playoffs.”

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