Gerald

At issue is the future of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but the negotiations do not involve Iran’s ballistic missile program, which the Trump administration is now saying could threaten the U.S. homeland in the near future. More about that later in this story. The U.S. is reportedly demanding that Iran destroy its Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites, deliver all enriched uranium to the U.S., agree to zero enrichment of its uranium, but can keep the Tehran reactor. In addition, the Trump administration is demanding that any deal be permanent and is offering Iran minimal sanctions relief, with more if the country is compliant with these demands. 

For its part, Iran “is unwilling to transfer any enriched uranium outside the country,” the official Iranian Press TV news outlet reported on Thursday. While the U.S. delegation demands all existing stockpiles be handed over, Iran insists that the enriched uranium should remain safeguarded within its borders.

“Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Iran remained ‘crystal clear’ that it would ‘under no circumstances ever develop a nuclear weapon,’ while also recognising the right of Iran’s people to the benefits of ‘peaceful nuclear technology,’” Al Jazeera reported.

The negotiations are taking place in the wake of statements by Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio laying out the administration’s case against Iran. Both warned that Iran is developing weapons that can strike the U.S. and has the means and intent to strike its assets, and those of allies, in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the Trump administration reportedly would like to see Israel attack first to give the U.S. political cover.

“There’s thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us, and give us more reason to take action,” Politico stated. 

“The argument in Israel is that this would be a terrible strategic mistake, as it creates a lose-lose situation: if the strike fails, Israel would be blamed for dragging the United States into the conflict,” a high-ranking IDF official told us. “Israel would be accused of being a warmonger, a source of destruction and regional war, rather than a country seeking to reach an agreement. Israel could find itself completely isolated. This reflects the general discourse on the issue.”

This issue should be taken with a degree of skepticism since much of the behind-the-scenes reporting has been highly inaccurate.

“Many actions are being carried out on the home front, among civilians, in order to protect them from missile strikes,” the IDF official added. “At the same time, there is very significant military readiness along the borders.”

While the Trump administration is pushing Iran to accept the deal or risk an attack, Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives pledged Thursday “to force a vote next week on legislation to restrict President Donald Trump from attacking Iran without congressional approval,” Politico pointed out, adding that “the White House is already mobilizing to try and defeat it.”

The move by Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and his leadership team “will compel a tough and close vote for lawmakers as the Trump administration ramps up pressure on Tehran,” the outlet added.

The sabre rattling and internal political machinations come as the U.S. has built up a massive force that includes two aircraft carrier strike groups and several other warships.

There are reports that the Ford, on a twice-extended deployment that has seen it enter the Mediterranean for the second time since departing Norfolk on June 24, 2025, will dock in Haifa, Israel. However, that seems dubious given that placing an aircraft carrier at a fixed location like that would make it a very attractive and high-volume target for an Iranian attack. The carrier would not benefit from its own defenses, and to a lesser degree, that of its escorts, when in port, as well.

There have been suggestions that the Ford’s Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer escorts will help provide protection for Israel against anticipated Iranian barrages. The Ford’s F/A-18E-F Super Hornets and E/A-18G Growler electronic warfare jets could also be used to attack Iran, but would have to fly across Israel or Lebanon, Syria or Jordan, and Iraq, to reach Iranian territory.

Haifa “suffered significant damage” during the 12-Day War in June, “with dozens injured from missile fire and structural damage to homes and municipality buildings,” the Jerusalem Post reported. “Haifa is home to the Israel Navy headquarters and the largest oil refinery in Israel, which was hit during the war, forcing a partial, temporary shutdown of some secondary facilities.”

The Pentagon’s first kamikaze drone unit is ready to participate if Trump decides to launch strikes on Iran, Bloomberg News reported, citing U.S. officials and analysts. The drone unit is known as Task Force Scorpion. It’s now ready for operations, U.S. Central Command spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins told the news outlet in an emailed statement.

“We established the squadron last year to rapidly equip our warfighters with new combat drone capabilities that continue to evolve,” he said.

The U.S. military set up Task Force Scorpion late last year as the first operational unit armed with Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) kamikaze drones, a design reverse-engineered from the Iranian-designed Shahed-136, in the Middle East. The establishment was seen as a major development, and offers a way “to flip the script on Iran,” according to a U.S. official. Last year, TWZ laid out a detailed case for why America’s armed forces should be investing heavily in rapidly-produced Shahed-136 clones as an adaptable capability that could be critical in future operations globally, as you can read here.

Just in: The Pentagon’s first kamikaze drone unit is ready to participate if President Donald Trump decides to launch strikes on Iran, according to US officials and analysts. https://t.co/DOPGwxi339

— Anthony Capaccio (@ACapaccio) February 26, 2026

In addition to the ships, scores of tactical jets, refuelers, airborne control planes, and other aircraft have already surged to the Middle East and Europe, with more on the way. At least another 12 F-35As from Hill Air Force Base in Utah, and six F-15Es each from Mountain Home Air Force Base in Idaho and Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina are heading to Europe. That’s ahead of a likely deployment to the Middle East.

Aviation photographer Acr Explorer was kind enough to share images of F-35As and F-22s seen at Lakenheath Air Base in the U.K. on Thursday.

The large influx of U.S. airpower has left U.S. bases in the region crowded and is one reason that F-22 Raptor stealth fighters have been deployed to Israel. Another is the likelihood that Israel will be fully integrated into any U.S. attack on Iran.

Beyond the Middle East and Europe, the U.S. is also building up forces at Diego Garcia, its Indian Ocean island outpost, which has been used as a bomber base in previous conflicts. As we noted yesterday, F-16CM fighters from the 35th Fighter Wing recently arrived on the island from Misawa Air Base in Japan. These would be key assets in defending the island from a possible Iranian attack. There is also indications that a bomber deployment to the base could be imminent. However, there are political questions to be solved before the base can be used for a strike on Iran. As we reported last week, the United Kingdom has apparently said it would not allow the use of the island for strikes on Iran, although Prime Minister Keir Starmer could still change his mind. You can read more about the force-protection mission at Diego Garcia — increasingly threatened by Iranian long-range attack drones and missiles — in our previous reporting.

While the talks between Washington and Tehran are scheduled to resume next week, remember that three days before the Operation Midnight Hammer strike on Iranian nuclear facilities last June, the White House said Trump would decide “within two weeks” about whether to strike or keep negotiating.

Though more negotiations are scheduled, Trump has acted militarily ahead of planned talks in the past. Regardless, with the Ford arriving very soon and other assets trickling into place, and fitting our own stated timeline, the window for strikes appears to be cracking open now, and will only get wider with each passing day.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Reuters reported that advanced U.S. military planning includes options for targeting individuals, and possibly pursuing regime change.

Meanwhile, previous reporting suggested the U.S. leader was considering a weeks-long campaign against Iranian leadership, nuclear infrastructure, missile launch sites and associated industry, and other military installations and command and control nodes. His intentions at the moment remain unclear.

Though Trump is pushing for Iran to end its nuclear program, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi denied that the U.S. has demanded zero uranium enrichment. He added that Iran has not offered the suspension of its uranium enrichment during the nuclear negotiations.

In a letter to the U.N., the Iranian delegation to the U.N. issued a warning that if attacked, “all bases, facilities and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets in the context of Iran’s defensive response.”

The U.S. “would bear full and direct responsibility for any unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences,” the letter added.

The Iranian letter also addressed a social media posting Trump made earlier this week, urging the British to allow the use of the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia in case it was needed for a strike against Iran. The U.K. has so far denied that, which you can read more about in our story here.

“Given the volatile situation and the persistent movement and build-up of military equipment and assets by the United States,” the Iranian letter continued, “such a belligerent statement by the president of the United States must not be treated as mere rhetoric; it signals a real risk of military aggression, the consequences of which would be catastrophic for the region and would constitute a grave threat to international peace and security.”

Amid the negotiations and dueling rhetoric, Iran continues to prepare for an attack. New imagery shows that a concrete structure, covered by soil, was placed over the Parchin nuclear site to protect it against potential airstrikes.

As for Israel, which is anticipated to take part in any action against Iran, officials say the security status remains unchanged.

“The IDF is monitoring regional developments and is attentive to public discourse on Iran,” Brig. Gen. Efi Defrin, an IDF spokesman, said Friday. “The IDF is on alert for defense. There is no change in instructions. Please follow the IDF Spokesperson and Home Front Command announcements only through official channels.”

A high-ranking IDF official told us that Israel is preparing for an attack on Iran that could come quickly.

“On the streets, there are no visible signs of anything unusual in the context of an imminent attack. However, within the defense and military establishment, the level of readiness is extremely high, and it appears that preparations are underway for a potential large-scale strike, possibly as soon as this coming weekend,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details.

“It appears that the situation is approaching a critical point,” he explained. “There is also a possibility that Iran, if it concludes it has little to lose, could attempt a preemptive surprise attack of its own.”

We have seen various videos of military equipment being dispersed around Iran in recent days.

With the Ford now in the Mediterranean, the U.S. is now coming closer to culminating its build-up that could support a sustained air campaign against Iran if Trump makes the call to do so.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

“The strike group’s current deployment has already been extended once, and its sailors were expecting to come home in early March,” The New York Times, which was first to report that the Ford was ordered to the Middle East, noted. “The new delay will further jeopardize the Ford’s scheduled dry dock period in Virginia, where major upgrades and repairs have been planned.”

It is publicly unknown what discussions the CNO had with senior administration and Pentagon officials and whether he raised any objections or sought alternatives to keeping the Ford at sea longer than anticipated. We have reached out to his office and will update this story with any details provided. We also reached out to the White House and Joint Chiefs of Staff, which referred us to the CNO’s office.

At the SNA conference, Caudle emphasized that there is a price to be paid for the strike group after being away from homeport for more than 200 days under often intense conditions. That was almost exactly a month ago.

“I am a big non-fan of extensions, and because they do have significant impact,” Caudle explained. “Number one, I’m a sailors-first CNO. People want to have some type of certainty that they’re going to do a seven-month deployment.”

Beyond affecting people, extensions also have a detrimental impact on the ship in addition to its previously noted dry dock schedule.

“So now, when the ship comes back, we expected the ship to be in this level of state in which it was used during that seven-month deployment, when it goes eight, nine-plus months, those critical components that we weren’t expecting to repair are now on the table,” Caudle pointed out. “The work package grows, so that’s disruptive.”

In addition to the maintenance issues Caudle brought up at the SNA conference, the Ford also is also plagued by sewage issues.

You can read more about how detrimental deferred maintenance is to carriers — or any U.S. Navy warship for that matter — that get their deployments extended in our deep dive here.

It is not unusual for there to be two carriers deployed to the Middle East region. For instance, a year ago, the U.S. Navy had both the USS Harry S. Truman and the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carriers in the Middle East at the same time, engaged in combat operations against Yemen-based Houthi rebels. However, the Navy has 10 active carriers after the Nimitz, the service’s oldest, returned to port in December ahead of a scheduled decommissioning. There are scheduling and logistical support limits to how many can be out at sea at the same time without massive disruptions down the line.

The USS Eisenhower, the last carrier to make an extended deployment, has seen its planned maintenance extended for a half year and counting as a result of the additional strain of being away from its home port for so long. The Navy’s Fiscal Year 2026 budget shows that work on the ship was supposed to have been completed last July, but it is still unfinished. The lack of availability reverberates across the rest of the fleet. That in turn limits the options commanders have when planning or preparing for contingencies and puts the overall carrier availability plan out of whack.

As for the rest of the fleet, three other carriers are in various maintenance periods taking them out of action for extended periods. In addition, the USS George Washington is forward deployed to Japan, two carriers are preparing for deployment and two are in post-deployment mode.

The move to send the Ford to the Middle East comes amid a growing buildup of forces ahead of a potential conflict with Iran. In addition to the Ford, the Pentagon is also dispatching a peculiarly small number of Air Force tactical aircraft to the Middle East, joining a limited number of aircraft already there on land and sea.

In addition to the Lincoln, there are also at least nine other warships in the region, including five Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyers. Submarines are also there, but their presence is not disclosed, and there are more than 30,000 troops on bases around the Middle East.

During the first week of February, three U.S. Navy ships transited the Malacca Strait northbound with little fanfare, entering the Indian Ocean.

The trap was set. Expeditionary Sea Base USS Miguel Keith (ESB 5), embarked with U.S. special forces, and destroyer USS Pinckney (DDG… pic.twitter.com/HTVXqTCV4f

— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) February 11, 2026

Another CSG, with its embarked tactical aircraft and Aegis-equipped escorts, would certainly bolster America’s firepower in the Middle East. As we have frequently pointed out, even with the jets that are there and those arriving, there is not enough tactical airpower there now for a major sustained operation. A second CSG would provide significant help.

It remains unknown what orders Trump will give or when, but a second carrier strike group in the region gives him more options.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com