cautious

Much like the companies that issue stocks, blockchains that issue cryptocurrencies can be analyzed by the amount of revenue they produce. Assets with more revenue and more revenue growth are likely to be better investments than those without.

By that standard, Solana (SOL 0.87%) is worth looking at closely as a potential investment. On Sept. 18 alone, its decentralized applications (dApps) generated roughly $6.9 million in revenue, more than the next 10 chains combined, and nearly three times the next largest competitor’s tally for the day. That certainly adds to the case for buying it, but when that fact is put in context, investors will also find some reasons to be a little bit cautious here.

Image source: Getty Images.

A reason to buy: A booming app economy

Before getting into the weeds, let’s start with a quick definition. In this context, “application revenue” is the sum of revenue earned by apps on a chain, which is distinct from base gas fees. By convention, the metric excludes stablecoin issuers, liquid staking, and gas itself. It’s a basic measurement of the level to which actual users are paying apps for their services.

So when Solana’s apps pulled in millions of dollars over a 24-hour period, outpacing not just its biggest competitor, Ethereum, but the rest of the field in aggregate, it was a big deal. What’s even more salient is that over the prior 30 days, Solana’s total application revenue of $211 million was more than twice Ethereum’s, so these results were not just a blip.

If you want one reason to buy Solana right now, this is it: There are customers consistently paying to use the applications on its chain, and far more of them than on any other network.

But why does this matter in the bigger scheme of things? The main reason is that app revenue tends to compound.

When app developers see users paying for services, they’re heavily incentivized to make and ship more of their products to that venue. Then the growth flywheel spins even faster as customers see that they can address multiple needs within the same ecosystem. Solana is thus where many developers perceive the growth to be.

Investors should also understand how this value generation accrues to Solana itself rather than just to application-related tokens.

In a nutshell, application revenue does primarily accrue to the applications and their treasuries or tokenholders, not directly to Solana holders. With that said, more usage generally boosts demand for blockspace and the network’s fee markets. And satisfying a customer’s demand for Solana app services requires them to buy and hold Solana to cover their fees. In other words, the ownership flywheel to Solana’s value is more indirect than on chains that burn a larger portion of fees, but strong app revenue still signals a healthy economy that can attract capital and talent, and more activity on the chain does induce more demand for the coin, and thus, drives its price higher.

A reason to be cautious: The headline numbers don’t tell the whole story

There’s an important catch here with Solana’s application revenue. A lot of the applications generating the largest proportion of the network’s revenue are not exactly focused on serious lines of business.

In fact, a large slice of Solana’s application revenue currently depends on applications that streamline the launching and trading of meme coins, which are cyclical, highly speculative, and often simply a stand-in for gambling. That makes sense given that meme coins accounted for roughly 70% of Solana’s decentralized exchange volume at one point, with over 60% of Solana app revenue being closely related to meme coin investing. If market conditions become a bit less frothy, that volume and those revenues are likely to dry up rapidly.

Does that make Solana uninvestable? Not at all. It just means that investors should be aware that its casino-like projects are the ones that are the most successful at the moment. Casinos can be profitable to own, but it’s still important to recognize that you’re (at least in part) buying a portion of one by buying Solana right now.

Assuming that the revenue mix gradually broadens — and it likely will — Solana can convert today’s traffic into longer-lived and more serious segments, and hang onto its mindshare among developers. If its mix stays overly dependent on meme coins, it might be a volatile ride, and the crypto’s upside might have a lower cap.

The investment thesis for buying this coin still rests on the real economic signal that users are paying to use apps at scale on this chain, and at a vastly higher rate than they’re doing that elsewhere. There are a lot of reasons to be bullish about Solana’s future, so the balance of risk and reward here does still tilt heavily toward buying it.

One way to have your cake and eat it too is to accept a long holding period and restrict yourself to a modest position sizing, at least until there’s clearer evidence of the ecosystem widening a bit. Until then, just remember that casinos wouldn’t be so large and opulent if they were bad at making money.

XRP (XRP 0.69%) is a cryptocurrency that was launched by Ripple Labs in 2012. Its main purpose is to enable low-cost international money transfers, particularly for banks and financial institutions. It uses XRP as a bridge currency, which essentially means that two parties can exchange different currencies by putting their funds into XRP.

It has gained over 420% in the last year, spurred by an end to its long-running court case and optimism about changing political attitudes toward crypto.

XRP enthusiasts think this is only the beginning. Free from the shackles of legal battles, they think the token can go to the moon. Indeed, analysts at Standard Chartered predict it could soar another 300% or more before 2028.

Image source: Getty Images.

Anything is possible in the world of cryptocurrency. For example, if the SEC approves a spot XRP ETF and more companies start to use Ripple’s payment solutions, both could be big drivers of growth. However, speculation is rife, and a lot of potential positive news is already priced in. Moreover, there are a few reasons XRP may not be able to sustain its current price.

1. XRP looks overvalued

One of the challenges in cryptocurrency investing is that we can’t use traditional metrics like P/E ratios to value a project. Blockchain-specific metrics exist, such as network activity, market cap, and fees or revenue. But Ripple Labs is a private company that doesn’t have to publish financial statements, and XRP transaction fees work differently from other blockchains. In itself, the very lack of information is a reason to be cautious.

We know that XRP has a market cap of almost $170 billion as of Aug. 29. If it were a public company, it would be one of the top 100 companies in the U.S. Its market cap is bigger than Nike, Capital One, and S&P Global.

That just doesn’t seem realistic. For sure, the global cross-border payment market is huge. The IMF estimated that the traditional and crypto international payment market was almost 1 quadrillion dollars in 2024. It’s also true that Ripple may be well-positioned to capitalize on — and even drive — changes to the industry.

But right now, only a fraction of international payments go through Ripple’s network.
It’s hard to see how a cryptocurrency created by a team with over 900 employees is comparable to a global icon like Nike with almost 80,000 employees.

2. XRP is not the only payment solution

With the average international remittance fees at over 6%, per the World Bank, the global money-moving space is ripe for disruption. Particularly as U.S. lawmakers recently passed the GENIUS Act, creating a clear framework for stablecoin issuance and reserves.

Now that the regulatory roadblocks are gone, various businesses are trying to work out how to integrate blockchain technology and stablecoins into their operations. Stripe is developing its own blockchain.PayPal has its own stablecoin and “Pay with Crypto” functionality. Visa
has announced a new tokenized asset platform. Mastercard has crypto credit cards and blockchain infrastructure.

Ripple Labs could benefit from a boom in stablecoins and tokenization because it offers custody and blockchain integration solutions, which could be built on the XRP Ledger. But it’s all still to play for. Ripple Labs is only one of several players jostling for position in a space that is undergoing dramatic changes.

3. The SWIFT network is piloting its own blockchain solutions

XRP is slightly outside the payments fray, as its main focus is to facilitate transactions between banks and financial institutions. Its main competitor is the existing SWIFT network, an international cooperative made up of over 11,500 institutions. Indeed, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told the XRP APEX 2025 conference in June that XRP could take 14% of SWIFT’s international payment transfer volume in the coming five years.

But SWIFT is taking its own steps into the blockchain world. And it isn’t using XRP to do it. Last year, the existing Swift payment system completed a tokenized asset pilot with UBS and Chainlink.

XRP feels overhyped

XRP is an interesting cryptocurrency that uses blockchain technology to solve real-world problems. That fact alone sets it apart from many crypto projects and might earn it a spot in your portfolio. Unfortunately, its market cap seems extremely high for a crypto that is only starting to establish itself in an extremely competitive space.

It’s also important to note that holding XRP is not the same as owning shares in Ripple Labs. Ripple is a private company that owns around 40% of XRP. Not only does that give Ripple significant control over XRP’s price, but it also means XRP holders are vulnerable to shifting business priorities. If other non-XRP avenues, such as its own stablecoin, prove more profitable, that’s the direction the business will follow.

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Speaking after the trade talks, US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday: “China will also suspend and remove all of its non-monetary barriers. They’ve agreed to do that,” he said. “It’s going to take a while to paper it. You know, that’s not the easiest thing to paper,” he added.

In early April, China imposed rare earth export restrictions on the US as a major non-tariff countermeasure in response to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The export controls affected seven critical minerals, on which the US heavily relies. These minerals are essential components in the manufacture of electric vehicles and electronic devices.

Trump’s remarks suggest that whether China will suspend or remove its export controls on these key minerals will be a central term in the negotiations. The removal or suspension of the controls could further bolster optimism surrounding a de-escalation of trade tensions.

On Monday, the world’s two largest economies reached an agreement to pause tariffs for 90 days. The US will reduce tariffs on China to 30% from 145%, while China will lower import levies on US goods to 10% from 125%.

Stock market rally loses steam

The broad-based market rally showed signs of retreat during Tuesday’s Asian session, indicating investor caution over the progress of US-China negotiations. Although both sides agreed to establish a mechanism for further discussions following the weekend’s talks, no specific dates have yet been set for future meetings.

US stock futures declined, pointing to a lower open. As of 4:50 am CEST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.47%. By contrast, European major index futures were more resilient, with the Euro Stoxx 600 slipping 0.17%, the DAX flat, and the FTSE 100 falling 0.23%.

Markets are awaiting further details of the agreement, particularly regarding China’s non-tariff countermeasures. Investors are also concerned about whether a comprehensive trade deal can be secured between the two nations after the 90-day pause.

“The critical issue from here is solidifying trade deals and ensuring the reduced tariffs don’t lapse after 90 days,” wrote Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, Australia, in an email. He added that markets would also look to see whether the US can achieve trade deals with other partners. “The markets will also want to see the US maintain this momentum and nut out deals with its other trading partners. Should that happen, the recovery in equities and the dollar ought to continue,” he said.

Euro rebounds from month-low

The US dollar weakened slightly against other major G10 currencies during the early Asian session. The EUR/USD pair rebounded to above 1.11 after falling to as low as 1.1065 on Monday – its lowest since 10 April.

The euro was seen as a major haven asset in April as the trade war heightened fears of a global economic recession. The common currency surged against the greenback last month to its highest level since November 2021. However, the euro’s rally could reverse course if future US-China negotiations lead to further de-escalation of trade tensions.

Investors appear to be seeking bargains in US assets amid an easing of risk-off sentiment. Despite the trade war, the impact on the US economy is expected to remain limited thus far. The market sell-off has been driven more by deteriorating sentiment than by any materialised downturn.

Markets will also turn their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, due for release on Wednesday. Sticky inflation may further drive up the dollar, thereby putting pressure on the euro. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates twice this year in response to tariff-driven inflationary risks. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is also expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle on economic grounds, albeit on a meeting-by-meeting basis.