Why Dodgers are betting on Blake Snell’s potential as a playoff ace
Blake Snell did not sound bitter. Somehow, he was not racked with regret.
Rather, when asked at his introductory Dodgers news conference this past offseason about the most infamous moment of his career, he took a brief moment to think. Then, unexpectedly, he expressed gratitude instead.
Five years ago, Snell was pitching the game of his life in Game 6 of the 2020 World Series. With his Tampa Bay Rays facing elimination against the Dodgers, he had answered the bell with five one-hit, nine-strikeout, virtually flawless Fall Classic innings.
What happened next remains controversial to this day. Snell gave up a one-out single in the sixth inning to Austin Barnes. Rays manager Kevin Cash came to the mound with a stunningly quick hook. The Dodgers went on to mount a rally against the Tampa Bay bullpen, ending a three-decade title drought while the left-handed ace watched from the bench. And in the aftermath, the second-guessing of the decision was as immediate as it was decisive.
Almost everyone else in the baseball world thought Snell should have stayed in.
Over time, however, the pitcher himself came to view it as a valuable lesson.
“It was a moment in my life that I’m very appreciative of,” Snell said last winter, donning a Dodger blue jersey for the first time after signing with the club for $182 million as a free agent.
“If I wanted to stay out there longer, I should have done a better job before that game to make that decision easier on Kevin. It’s ultimately up to me to be a better pitcher there in that moment.”
Five years later, he’s about to get his chance for postseason redemption.
Snell’s debut season in Los Angeles did not go as planned this year. He made two underwhelming starts at the beginning of the campaign while quietly battling shoulder soreness. He spent the next four months sidelined on the injured list, returning in time to make only nine more starts down the stretch.
Although his final numbers were strong (a 2.35 ERA, 72 strikeouts in 61⅓ innings, and Dodgers wins in seven of the 11 games he did pitch), his injury left his overall impact limited.
To Snell and the team, though, none of that matters now. Their union was always rooted in postseason success. And on Tuesday night, when the Dodgers open a best-of-three wild-card series against the Cincinnati Reds, it is Snell who will take the bump for Game 1 at Dodger Stadium.
“That’s why I came here,” Snell said amid the Dodgers’ division-clinching clubhouse celebration last week. “Get to the postseason, and see how good I can be.”
It’s an opportunity that’s been half a decade in the making.
Ever since breaking into the majors in 2016, and winning his first Cy Young Award with an immaculate 21-win, 1.89-ERA season two years later, Snell’s raw talent has never been in question. No starting pitcher in the history of the sport (minimum 1,000 career innings) has averaged more strikeouts per nine innings than his 11.2 mark. Even in the game’s modern era, few have possessed such a wicked arsenal, with Snell’s slider and curveball alone boasting a whopping career whiff rate of roughly 50%.
What Snell hasn’t done, however, is prove himself to be a workhorse. He has never had a 200-inning season. He has never gone six full frames in any of his 10 playoff starts. Through the years, he has been dogged by high walk rates and inefficient outings and a tendency to simply waste too many pitches. When Cash came to the mound in that sixth inning of the 2020 World Series, it only reinforced his five-and-dive reputation.
That’s why, when Snell looks back on that moment now, he views it through a lens of valuable perspective.
“I just learned, the manager’s job is to do whatever he thinks is gonna help the team win, and my job is to make him believe I’m the best option for us to win,” Snell said this past weekend, when asked about that ignominious Game 6 again. “And I didn’t do a good job of that, because he took me out.”
Thus, Snell has been on a different mission over the five years since. He not only wants to get back to the World Series and win his first championship. But he wants to do so as a bona fide October ace, the kind of anchor of a pitching staff that can get deeper into outings.
“[The playoffs are] where you want to see: What kind of player are you? How do you handle pressure situations? When everything is on the line,” Snell said. “That’s why I like it. It really allows you to understand who you are as a pitcher, where you’re at, and where you need to grow … How to find advantages to push yourself deeper in the game.”
The last time Snell pitched in the playoffs, such goals remained a work in progress. As a member of the San Diego Padres in 2022, he amassed just 13⅔ innings over three postseason starts, recording a 4.61 ERA while walking nine total batters.
Over the three seasons since then, however, he feels he has made more tangible strides. In 2023, he won another Cy Young by going 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA, averaging close to six innings per start despite a major-league-leading 99 walks. Last year might have been even more transformational, even as he battled injuries with the San Francisco Giants.
During his lone season in the Bay, Snell picked the brain of Giants ace Logan Webb, who has led the National League in innings pitched over each of the last three seasons. Their talks centered on the value of short at-bats, the importance of “dominating the inside part of the plate,” and the significance of executing competitive misses on throws around the edge of the zone.
“That was probably one of my biggest years of growth and development, in the sense of how to go deeper into games,” Snell said.
The results certainly backed that up, with Snell rebounding from an injury-plagued first half to post a 1.23 ERA over his final 14 starts. In an early August trip to Cincinnati (his last time facing the Reds ahead of this week’s playoff series), he threw his first career no-hitter on just 114 pitches.
“That no-hitter was insane,” said current Dodgers outfielder and former Giants teammate Michael Conforto, who like Snell went from San Francisco to Los Angeles as a free agent last offseason. “He just had everything working. He was hitting every corner. He knew exactly where he wanted to put it, and he put it there every time.
“That’s the kind of performance he’s capable of every time he goes out,” Conforto added. “It’s just a very, very tough at-bat. Especially when he’s throwing strikes.”
This year, Snell’s evolution has continued around the Dodgers — where manager Dave Roberts has lauded him as a “next-level thinker” for the way he can read opponents’ swings, figure out their tendencies in the batter’s box, and adapt his plan of attack to what he feels a given matchup requires.
Since returning from his early-season shoulder injury, Snell has increasingly tapped into top form. He has cut down on walks and wasted pitches. He has posted a 2.41 ERA over his nine second-half starts. His last three outings in particular: 19 innings, one run, 28 strikeouts and only five free passes.
The most important development has been his relationship with Roberts, who left Snell in the game after late-inning mound visits in each of his last two starts, and watched him escape high-leverage jams.
Those moments could be invaluable as the Dodgers enter the playoffs, giving Roberts a level of confidence to push his Game 1 starter and cover for what has been an unreliable bullpen.
“He understands his role on this ball club,” Roberts said. “When you put a starter in a position where they know they have to go deeper, you’ve got to just naturally be more efficient.”
It’s a skill Snell has been honing ever since that fateful October night five years ago. Starting Tuesday night, it’s about to be tested again.
“That’s everything,” Snell said of pitching in the postseason again. “To face the best when the stakes are highest, that’s what I’ve always wanted.”
