Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called an election for April 28, with polls showing a close contest between his Liberal Party and the Conservatives as the country faces a trade war and taunts about its sovereignty from US President Donald Trump.
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Bloomberg News
Thomas Seal, Brian Platt and Randy Thanthong-Knight
Published Mar 23, 2025 • 4 minute read
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(Bloomberg) — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called an election for April 28, with polls showing a close contest between his Liberal Party and the Conservatives as the country faces a trade war and taunts about its sovereignty from US President Donald Trump.
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Carney requested the dissolution of Parliament on Sunday in a meeting with Governor General Mary Simon, who represents head of state King Charles III, triggering the election campaign.
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It’s been only nine days since Carney became prime minister. The 60-year-old took over the governing Liberals after winning the race to succeed Justin Trudeau, who had resigned under pressure from lawmakers in his own party.
For more than a year, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, commanded a double-digit lead as he tapped into public frustration about the cost of living and housing shortages and successfully linked those problems to Trudeau’s policies. But in recent weeks, Trump’s tariffs and his threats to use “economic force” to make Canada a US state have eclipsed other issues to dominate Canadian politics, galvanizing Canadians to rally around their flag.
Trump’s menacing tone toward Canada has changed all political calculations. A new national poll of 1,500 voters by Abacus Data puts the Conservatives slightly in front. But among voters who say Trump is the top issue, the Liberals are ahead by almost 30 points, Abacus Chief Executive Officer David Coletto said in a release Sunday.
The Trump administration’s import taxes against Canadian products have come alongside grievances spanning from border security to defense spending to market access for US banks. The US had a goods trade deficit of more than $60 billion with Canada last year, a figure that Trump deems a subsidy for things he says the US doesn’t need, fueled by massive US demand for Canadian oil and gas.
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With Carney pitching himself as a financially astute manager with experience handling crises like the 2008 financial crash, the Liberals’ prospects have been revived. Polls put them in contention to win a rare fourth term, with a shot at controlling a majority of the 343 seats up for grabs in the House of Commons.
Raised in the oil-rich province of Alberta, Poilievre, 45, has outlined a vision of Canada with smaller government to unleash growth after the tax hikes and deficit spending of the Trudeau years. He’d also slash regulations to empower Canada’s hydrocarbon industry. He’s described Trudeau — son of a former prime minister — and Carney, a former Goldman Sachs banker, as elites harming ordinary Canadians with “radical, borderless globalist ideology.”
Poilievre launched his campaign Sunday by accusing the Liberals of weakening the economy and making it more vulnerable to Trump’s aggression, and repeating his promises to unleash business investment. “After the lost Liberal decade, the question is whether Canadians can afford a fourth Liberal term,” he told reporters in Gatineau, Quebec.
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“I know a lot of people are worried, angry and anxious, and with good reason as a result of the president’s unacceptable threats against our country,” Poilievre said. “I share your anger and I share the worry for our future. But I also draw great resolve in knowing that we can transform the anxiety and anger into action.”
Poilievre has criticized Carney for a lack of transparency about his personal financial interests following years in the private sector in roles including chairman of investment firm Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. Carney was also chairman of Bloomberg Inc. but stepped down in January when he entered politics.
Carney’s challenge will be showing he’s different from his predecessor. He has said a government led by him will “invest more” and curb spending.
In his first week in power, he abandoned Trudeau policies like a carbon tax on consumers and a proposed hike in capital gains taxes. He also ordered a review of the country’s contract for US fighter jets, and visited the UK and France to build ties with Europe.
Carney has said Trump’s 51st state rhetoric “will have to stop before we sit down and have a conversation about our broader partnership” with the US.
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Both Carney and Poilievre say they’d be better at negotiating with Trump, and have talked about diversifying Canada’s trade relationships while dissolving internal barriers to trade. No party has published a full policy platform yet.
The third-place New Democratic Party, historically affiliated with labor unions, has sagged from the high teens to about 10% in recent data, apparently bleeding support to the Liberals. Jagmeet Singh, the party’s leader, propped up Trudeau’s government by voting in favor of budgets and other key measures.
The surge in Canadian nationalism catalyzed Trump’s attacks may also upend other political dynamics. In French-speaking Quebec, Canada’s second most populous province, there were signs of rising support for separatism until Trump was reelected. Now, support for a separatist party, the Bloc Quebecois, appears to have waned.
Conversely, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has issued a list of demands she says the government must address within months to boost its oil sector, or else face “an unprecedented national unity crisis.”