The recent emergence of DeepSeek, a groundbreaking large language model (LLM) from China, has sent ripples across the global technology landscape, particularly in the United States and Western nations. Positioned as a formidable competitor to established models like OpenAI’s GPT series, DeepSeek’s open-source nature and cost efficiency are redefining the AI arms race. Developed in just two months and utilizing limited hardware resources, DeepSeek has defied expectations with its rapid progress and impressive capabilities. As Silicon Valley scrambles to respond, concerns about technological dominance and geopolitical implications intensify.
DeepSeek: A Disruptive Force in the Global AI Race
DeepSeek’s capabilities are revolutionary. Trained on a dataset comprising 87% code and 13% natural language in English and Chinese, it has excelled in tasks like mathematical reasoning and coding, even outperforming OpenAI’s models in certain benchmarks. Its cost efficiency is unparalleled, with DeepSeek-V3 developed at a fraction of the cost of comparable models from OpenAI. Moreover, its open-source nature allows developers worldwide to access, modify, and deploy the model freely, fostering global innovation and collaboration.
The global reaction to DeepSeek has been mixed. While it is celebrated as a breakthrough in democratizing AI development, Silicon Valley views it with apprehension. Its potential to accelerate China’s AI advancements and alter global power dynamics raises concerns about an intensified AI-driven competition between China and the U.S. This development underscores the urgency for nations to recalibrate their strategic approaches to AI governance and adoption.
Unlike other Chinese LLMs like WuDao and PanGu, DeepSeek emphasizes efficiency and accessibility over large-scale applications. Its emergence highlights China’s accelerating AI advancements, sparking debates on ethical considerations, propaganda risks, and disinformation. As such, DeepSeek’s development signifies a pivotal shift in global AI power dynamics, demanding global cooperation and robust governance frameworks to mitigate risks while fostering inclusive innovation.
DeepSeek’s unparalleled reasoning capabilities, achieved at a fraction of the cost of its Western counterparts, highlight its disruptive potential. Unlike other Chinese LLMs, such as WuDao and PanGu, which focus on large-scale data training and comprehensive applications, DeepSeek prioritizes efficiency and accessibility. Its development marks a pivotal shift in global AI power dynamics, raising alarms about China’s accelerating AI advancements. It has also spurred debates about ethical considerations, propaganda risks, and the potential for disinformation. This development underscores the urgency for nations to recalibrate their strategic approaches to AI governance and adoption.
Scenario Planning: Navigating the AI Landscape
The DeepSeek phenomenon accentuates three possible global scenarios, necessitating scenario planning due to its parallels with the Cold War arms race. However, unlike the high-stakes nuclear competition, the AI arms race extends beyond high politics and potential military conflicts, delving into low politics such as economic strategies, ideological influence, and cultural impacts. This broader scope highlights the multidimensional challenges and opportunities AI developments like DeepSeek present to the global order.
AI Arms Race: Nations intensify their investment in AI to achieve supremacy, fostering innovation but risking global instability. This race is further complicated by the potential advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), an AI capable of human-like reasoning and learning across diverse tasks. While AGI offers transformative possibilities—such as breakthroughs in science, medicine, and global problem-solving—it also poses significant risks, including the potential for misuse, loss of control, and unforeseen societal impacts. Furthermore, the rise of non-state actors leveraging AI for malicious purposes adds another layer of unpredictability and threat. These actors could exploit AI technologies for cyberattacks, misinformation campaigns, or even automated weaponry, escalating risks beyond state-controlled scenarios and necessitating robust global governance and countermeasures.
AI Domination: One nation establishes a dominant position, leveraging its technological lead for economic and political advantage, potentially marginalizing others. Such dominance could exacerbate global inequalities, creating deeper social divides and fostering a form of neo-colonialism where technologically advanced nations dictate terms to less developed ones. This scenario risks turning developing countries into mere consumers of AI technologies rather than active participants in their creation, further entrenching economic dependency. To counteract these trends, international cooperation must emphasize technology sharing, equitable AI governance, and capacity building for nations in the Global South. These measures can ensure that AI’s benefits are distributed fairly, reducing the potential for exploitation and fostering a more inclusive global AI ecosystem.
Collaborative Multiplex World: Countries adopt a cooperative framework, emphasizing shared governance, ethical standards, and equitable AI development. This scenario represents an ideal vision for global AI dynamics, where nations work collectively to address shared challenges and ensure equitable access to AI benefits. By pooling resources and fostering transparency, countries can create an environment that promotes innovation while safeguarding against misuse and inequality. This approach benefits all nations, as it reduces global tensions, facilitates technology transfer, and ensures that even smaller or developing nations can actively participate in and benefit from AI advancements. The collaborative multiplex model supports sustainable development and ensures that the transformative potential of AI is harnessed for the greater good of humanity.
Given these scenarios, Indonesia must adopt proactive measures to secure its interests and leverage AI advancements for national development.
Indonesia and the Multiplex World
The “multiplex world” concept, as proposed by Amitav Acharya, describes a global order characterized by multiple centers of power and influence. Unlike a unipolar or bipolar world dominated by one or two superpowers, the multiplex world emphasizes diversity in governance structures, economic systems, and cultural influences. It advocates for multilateral cooperation and inclusive global governance while allowing nations to preserve their sovereignty and unique identities.
In the context of global AI dynamics, this concept is relevant as it encourages nations like Indonesia to participate actively in shaping a balanced and equitable AI ecosystem. By aligning with this approach, Indonesia can navigate the complexities of global power shifts in AI development, collaborating with various stakeholders while maintaining its strategic autonomy.
Indonesia can draw from Amitav Acharya’s “multiplex world” concept to navigate the complexities of global AI dynamics. This approach emphasizes multilateral cooperation while safeguarding sovereignty and promoting a balanced world order. Indonesia’s strategic actions could include:
Leveraging BRICS Membership: Indonesia’s membership in BRICS provides a strategic opportunity to negotiate technology transfer and collaborative research initiatives, particularly leveraging cost-effective large language models (LLMs) like DeepSeek and other Chinese innovations. These collaborations could significantly accelerate AI innovation in Indonesia, offering scalable solutions for national and regional challenges. By fostering partnerships within BRICS, Indonesia can not only benefit from affordable access to advanced AI technologies but also drive joint research aimed at addressing developmental issues such as poverty alleviation, education equity, healthcare, and financial inclusion.
Engaging OECD Membership: Leveraging its growing technological aspirations and geopolitical clout to secure membership in the OECD. Indonesia can position itself as a key advocate for equitable AI governance by offering its strategic value as a bridge between developing and developed nations. Indonesia’s contributions could include promoting collaborative research on AI ethics, facilitating joint innovation projects, and creating frameworks for responsible AI adoption that address global safety concerns. For OECD nations, Indonesia’s participation could provide access to diverse markets, strengthen AI partnerships, and align with ethical commitments to global equity.
National AI Strategy: Formulating a comprehensive AI strategy focusing on infrastructure, talent development, and ethical governance. Initiatives like “Indonesia Digital 2045” can provide a foundation for sustainable AI integration. Indonesia should also establish an AI Council, akin to AI Singapore or India AI, to define long-term development goals and solidify Indonesia’s global AI positioning. While innovation in AI is led by the US and China, Indonesia could position itself as a hub for creative industry AI development and as a center for AI solutions addressing challenges faced by developing nations. For instance, AI could be harnessed to combat poverty, improve education equality, enhance healthcare delivery, and promote financial inclusion.
AI Diplomacy: Advocating for global AI governance frameworks that address ethical concerns, data security, and equitable development. This includes active engagement in creating AI policies that ensure fairness for developing nations and prevent technological marginalization. This is particularly critical for the Global South, where nations often face systemic barriers to accessing advanced technologies. By promoting an inclusive approach to AI governance, Indonesia can advocate for policies that address these disparities, ensuring that the benefits of AI are distributed equitably. Such efforts should also emphasize AI safety and ethical considerations, including the prevention of algorithmic bias and the promotion of transparent, accountable systems. Indonesia could lead initiatives promoting AI safety and ethical standards, addressing issues such as algorithmic bias, privacy, and the misuse of AI technologies. By leveraging its position in international forums, Indonesia can push for governance models that prioritize equitable AI adoption while fostering global cooperation and trust.
Harnessing AI for National Interests
DeepSeek’s rise offers Indonesia an opportunity to become an active player in global AI discussions. By embracing a multiplex approach, Indonesia can mitigate risks while maximizing benefits. Collaborating with like-minded nations, Indonesia can champion ethical AI adoption, drive innovation, and strengthen its position in emerging economic and geopolitical arenas.
As AI continues to reshape the global order, Indonesia’s proactive engagement with both OECD and BRICS platforms could redefine its role on the world stage. Through BRICS, Indonesia can leverage partnerships for technology transfer and cost-effective AI research using LLMs like DeepSeek, driving innovation tailored to the needs of developing nations. Meanwhile, participation in OECD discussions would position Indonesia as a key advocate for equitable AI governance, ensuring its national interests are well-represented in this transformative era.