Almost one year of Hamar-Israel’s local conflict has now evolved into a multi-front war. In the words of Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is facing a seven-front war: Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, West Bank, Houthis in Yemen, Syria, Shiite militants in Iraq, and Iran. This multi-faceted conflict will have grave consequences for the region’s prosperity. 

On 5th October 2024, Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile retaliatory attack on Israel after the assassination of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hasan Nasrallah in Beirut last week, followed by the 31st July attack on Ismail Haniyeh- Hamas Political Chief in Tehran. Immediately, after the attack Netanyahu, vowed to counterattack and said “Iran made a big mistake and will pay.”

The threat of a showdown between the U.S. and Iran has significantly increased after Iran’s October 5th retaliatory attack, as it sought to restore a deterrence; it is impossible for Tehran to “look weak” vis-à-vis Israel’s bouts on its proxies across the region. Since the attack did not cause massive damage, Israel has two options, whether a limited response (similar to the retaliation in April) or a choice to escalate, it could pause the decades-long proxy wars, dragging Iran directly into conflict with Israel and its patron, the U.S.

However, Israel has not initiated a retaliatory attack on Iran. Fears of regional spillover loom over the Middle East if the former wishes to escalate the situation.

In the event of war, the region will withstand numerous effects that will alter the regional dynamics, reshaping the alliances, economic strangulation, humanitarian crisis, and slim chances for a ceasefire.

Economy at Risk

The Middle Eastern region is crucial due to its geopolitical significance. It has three of the world’s most strategic energy checkpoints: the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb. Approximately half of the international maritime oil trade passes through these straits. Any disruption in this region would jeopardize the stability of global energy markets.

Across the Middle East, the prospects of spreading war would be so acute that it could lead to shutting down these oil routes. Oil-dependent countries would face the ripple effects of the crisis. It is inevitable for these critical shipping routes to escape from the vulnerability of such escalation, they would face profound and wide-ranging blow if the expansion of ongoing war leads to closures.

The world has not forgotten about Egypt’s Suez Canal being blocked by a ship, which within six days racked havoc on the international market, particularly in the shipping and oil and gas industries. Additionally, the Russia-Ukraine war also caused significant chaos across various sectors; the increase in inflation and the surge in oil and gas prices globally.

Therefore, any expansion of the war in this region will have repercussions on the global economy which will take decades to recover.

Intensifying Refugee Crisis

Another far-reaching effect would be an increasing humanitarian catastrophe in the Middle East, fostered by the conflict between Hamas, Israel, Lebanon, and Iran. Over the past year, nearly 2 million Palestinians fled, and around 42,000 are dead in Gaza as a result of Israeli bombardments. In Lebanon, the war between Israel and Hezbollah is leading to massive displacement.

Before the beginning of the escalation in September 2024, across the Israel-Lebanon border, around 100,000 Lebanese were dislocated due to Israeli she and 63,000 Israelis were displaced due to Israeli shelling and Hezbollah’s rocket attacks respectively. However, in late September 2024, the fight between Hezbollah and Israel caused massive civilian casualties, and internal and cross-border migration has soared exponentially. Amid Israel’s invasion of Lebanon and bombing, more than 1 million Lebanese have fled from their homes.

In case of full-scale war, the cascading humanitarian crisis will intensify into famine and the spread of lethal diseases along with numerous other sufferings that will make the normal nearly unbearable.

Peace a falling hope

After a year of the Gaza war, the Middle East stands at the threshold of facing the biggest regional conflagration in decades. Despite the exchange of attacks across the region, the larger conflict with the direct involvement of both Iran and the U.S. has been avoided.

Since the beginning of the war in Gaza, the Biden administration has continued to verbally chant for de-escalation while military and political support to Israel to sustain its wars. As the conflict spreads across the region the U.S. political rhetoric and policies are drifting apart. With the war wages in Lebanon, the world is looking towards a plausible confrontation between Iran and Israel.

The U.S. never had true intentions of solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The war in Lebanon favored the U.S. agenda to divert world attention from south to north- Gaza to Lebanon and to abandon the ceasefire negotiations.

For the U.S., the current situation provides a strategic opportunity and a moment to redefine history hence, taking advantage of the worsening situation of the region and reshaping the regional dynamics- a nonconservative movement that advances support for Israel and uplifting US-backed governments through interventionism and hawkish foreign policy.

Conclusion

The chances of the ceasefire are fluctuating in the Middle East and many analysts say it is the failure of Biden’s administration and little interest in putting an end to conflict in Gaza that has brought the region to this point. At the same time, lease interests of the Gulf states cannot be ignored, they can normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a solution to an Israeli-Palestinian conflict.