Macron needs to stop sabotaging a coalition government and accept that his glory days as “the new Louis XIV” are over. His priorities should be to anoint a new successor, ensure Le Pens defeat in 2027, and protect and expand his presidential legacy. With his refusal to accept a left-wing candidate, he is only tainting it.
Three months have passed since Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly dissolved the National Assembly and called for legislative elections to regain the political initiative after a humiliating defeat of his centrist movement in the European elections at the hands of the far right. The result was yet another stunning defeat, in which his influence in the National Assembly, and on French politics was irreparably diluted. The spectacular Paris Olympics in July provided a rare display of unity and reaffirmation of French identity, masking the difficulties in finding a government capable of not only pursuing a long-term project but also handling the most basic administrative matters. With the Olympic façade over, the current caretaker government is the longest serving in the history of the Fifth Republic. As I said before the Games, compromise was necessary, but now it has become vital to France´s future.
The left coalition is rightly; claiming that it has the right to propose the prime minister. Not only is it the largest bloc (193 seats out of 577), but it was the unity of these parties their mobilization and sacrificial strategy that managed to curb the far right surge. Mélenchon has offered to support a government without LFI ministers in exchange for having his candidate, economist Lucie Castets, as the prime minister. Macron outright rejected Castets, a clumsy move that has been unanimously criticized by the coalition. If he intended to divide the left bloc to reach a pact only with the socialists, he has achieved the opposite, galvanizing his only way to a compromise against him.
Macron has no alternative but to accept that his movement is in decline, he has lost the elections, and he lacks the power to impose a candidate. The new prime minister will no longer answer directly to him but to a fragmented Assembly. If he doesn’t want the prime minister to be from the left, it will have to be someone acceptable to the left. Macron is acting as if there had been no elections. By avoiding this reality, he is prolonging an unprecedented interim situation in a country that the rest of the EU needs at the helm, especially with Germany in crisis. This week, he has called for another round of consultations; it is unclear what he expects from it. The left, for its part, must recognize that it cannot demand a government that fully implements its program. Compromise means giving up some ground. If the parties do not manage the fragmentation with foresight, Le Pen is waiting to step in as the savior and herald of order in the chaos. Any deal will surely mean cohabitation (a president from one party, a prime minister from another) with Macrons hold on French politics since 2017, the weakest it’s ever been.
Only time will tell if Macron can accept his reduced role, but the current crisis seems to pinpoint that he won’t. Let’s remember that abroad, Macron used to appear as a key world player known for his non-stop diplomatic activism. He was Europe’s axis, along with Germany, and revitalized French prestige around the world with his leadership inside the EU and with the handling of the COVID pandemic. His only blemish internationally speaking was his over eagerness to negotiate with Putin, even when it became clear that Putin wanted to end Ukrainian independence. Domestically it’s much more of a mixed bag. Whilst he sought to make the labor market more flexible and passed new rules to make it more difficult for the unemployed to claim benefits, as well as cutting taxes for businesses to boost hiring, and reducing unemployment during his tenure, he also spearheaded reforms that made him deeply unpopular. Macron was dubbed the “president of the rich due to the yellow vest anti-government protests that erupted against perceived social injustice. He is still perceived by many as arrogant and out of touch with ordinary people. In 2022 he struggled to pass an unpopular plan to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, prompting months of mass protests that damaged his leadership. Lastly, riots swept hundreds of cities, towns, and villages in 2023, after the fatal police shooting of a teenager.
Lastly speaking about legacy, Macron should take a page out of Joe Bidens playbook and use the power of office, as dwindled as it might be, to ensure the threat to democracy and liberty doesn’t achieve power when he’s not there. Macron can’t run again, needing to step down in 2027, with another candidate battling Le Pen for the Elysée. Whoever that might be, it would be beneficial for Macrons legacy, to establish a continuity successor in power, even if it’s not from his party, to protect his landmark policies once he has left power. By agreeing to a compromise with the left, he can widen his pool of candidates for endorsement in 2027, as a victory by Le Pen would jeopardize Macrons entire political legacy. Additionally, he has become a spokesperson of anti-right-wing rhetoric and according to him, he is the most worried about their rise. With the political crisis solved, he could tackle “a new way of governance”, resuscitating Macronism, and making his remaining tenure as President the most meaningful it can be. That begins and finishes with Le Pens defeat in 2027. He can’t do that without sacrificing his power.