If the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East were likened to the prison in “The Shawshank Redemption,” then Qatar would undoubtedly be “Red”—the inmate who can pull strings, smuggle anything in, and secure his indispensability to others. Much like Red, who carefully carves out a space of influence within the harsh confines of the prison yard, Qatar has skillfully positioned itself as a pivotal player in a world dominated by realpolitik. Through astute diplomacy and strategic alliances, Qatar has not only safeguarded its interests but also solidified its standing in the region.

Recently, news surfaced about efforts to negotiate a partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by Qatar. Although these efforts were disrupted by Ukrainian advances into Kursk, Russia, the very prospect of a small, gas-rich nation in the Middle East playing a role in a European geopolitical conflict is a testament to Qatar’s growing influence. However, this is far from Doha’s first foray into crisis negotiation or mediation, both within and beyond the Middle East. As a crucial ally of Washington, Qatar has consistently been at the forefront of high-profile mediation initiatives.

For instance, in July, amid Israel’s Tet offensive in Gaza, Qatar aided the U.S. and Israel in negotiating a temporary ceasefire and secured a deal with Hamas for the safe return of 116 Israeli hostages taken on Oct. 7. In 2020, Qatar emerged as a key transit point for evacuees following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. In 2023, Qatar facilitated a high-profile prisoner swap with Iran and played a role in the release of Ukrainian children held by Russia. In 2022, during the Doha peace negotiation, Qatar presided over the signing of a peace agreement between 42 rebel groups and Chad’s military government, aiming to curb violent extremism in the Sahel region.

Qatar Pivot in the Gaza War

Qatar’s involvement in the ongoing Israeli-Hamas conflict has further cemented its reputation as a skillful mediator in the Middle East. From brokering a temporary ceasefire between Hamas and Israel to facilitating the release of Israeli hostages and enabling humanitarian aid to Gaza in a deal brokered along with the help of France, Qatar’s diplomatic efforts have gained renewed relevance.

Following the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas’s political wing, by Israel on Iranian soil, and the looming threat of retaliation by Tehran, international efforts to secure a ceasefire have intensified. With a history of effective mediation in conflicts ranging from Lebanon in 2008 to Gaza in 2012, Qatar is once again playing a significant role in encouraging warring parties to explore pathways to peace.

Several factors make this small, gas-rich Gulf state a potent player in diplomatic negotiations.

Regional Power Play

Qatar’s assertive and independent foreign policy has often put it at odds with major regional powers like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, as well as their ally Manama. In 2017, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Egypt—collectively known as “the Quartet”—severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of financing terrorist groups and fostering close ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s archrival. The diplomatic rift was soon followed by land and maritime sanctions against Qatar.

In response to the 2017 blockade, Qatar proactively engaged in strategic diplomatic maneuvers to safeguard its interests in a region fraught with power rivalry. Departing from traditional Arab norms, Qatar’s foreign policy has been characterized by pragmatism, convenience, and seizing opportunities, often leading to its portrayal as a controversial state with a reputation akin to the “Switzerland of the Gulf.”

Independent Foreign Policy

Historically, Qatar has pursued an independent foreign policy in the region. In the 1980s, Doha struck a deal with Tehran to construct a freshwater pipeline from Iran’s Karun Mountains to Qatar, enraging Gulf monarchies and the U.S. alike. In 1988, Qatari leader Sheikh Khalifa bin Hamad al-Thani further defied Gulf leaders by establishing diplomatic ties with the former Soviet Union. In the 1990s, Qatar extended its influence by engaging with non-state actors such as Hezbollah and Hamas. In 1996, Qatar and Oman took the bold step of establishing unofficial trade relations with Israel, a relationship that persisted until Qatar completely severed ties with Israel in 2009.

During the Arab Spring, Qatar hosted numerous political conferences and, along with its ally Turkey, supported militant organizations like the Free Syrian Army and Jabhat al-Nusra. Qatar’s backing of revolutionary forces and Islamist organizations in the region, particularly the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, drew significant criticism from its neighbors. However, it also demonstrated Qatar’s willingness to engage with a broad spectrum of actors to bolster its regional influence.

Strategic Relationships

Qatar’s diplomatic strategy is underpinned by several key relationships:

The United States: Qatar has maintained strong diplomatic ties with the U.S., centered on energy, security, and education. The Al Ubeid Air Base, built in 1996, hosts over 10,000 American troops and plays a critical role in coordinating U.S. military operations across the region. Qatar also collaborates with the U.S. on counterterrorism operations, extending as far as the Horn of Africa. Following the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul, Doha played a significant role in hosting talks between the Taliban and U.S. officials. As David B. Roberts notes, Qatar seeks to deepen its partnership with the U.S. by strategically assessing and expanding its regional foreign policy. By leveraging its Islamist soft power to facilitate negotiations with non-state actors, Doha aims to position itself as indispensable, or at least highly valuable, to Washington.

Non-State Actors: To counterbalance regional rivals like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Qatar has built strong connections with various regional intermediaries, particularly those on the Islamist spectrum. In the Middle East, Doha is known for supporting groups like the Free Syrian Army, Jabhat al-Nusra, the Houthis, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Taliban. These relationships have led to accusations from neighboring Arab states of Qatar harboring an Islamist agenda at the core of its foreign policy.

Key Allies: Qatar has developed strong diplomatic ties with Iran and Turkey, much to the displeasure of other Arab powers. During the 2017 blockade, Turkey quickly came to Qatar’s aid, helping alleviate the imposed isolation. In the ever-shifting political landscape of the Middle East, these alliances highlight the importance of ideational elements and regional factors in shaping foreign policy approaches.

Conclusion

In a region dominated by major powers like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, often seen as pro-Western, Qatar distinguishes itself as a ‘small state’ that exerts influence not through physical might, but by mastering the subtleties of diplomacy. While its efforts in supporting the Palestinians are viewed positively, Qatar’s relationships with the U.S. and Israel are becoming increasingly strained. Western policymakers, particularly in the U.S., expect Qatar to expel Hamas officials currently sheltered in Doha. Continued support for Hamas, especially if further hostilities occur, could severely damage Qatar’s diplomatic ties with the U.S. and other Western allies. Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, involving multiple state and non-state actors, Doha must navigate these challenges with calculated precision. Its role as a political power broker has the potential to either strengthen or undermine its international and regional standing.