Following the general election in 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was elected to an unprecedented third term in power, so securing his place as one of the most prominent leaders in the country since independence. This momentous political event will have a profound effect on India’s foreign policy trajectory, particularly considering that the country is a member of the Quad, a strategic alliance founded by the US, Japan, and Australia to counter China’s growing military and economic dominance in the Indo-Pacific. India has moved over its prior hesitancy and taken an positive stance towards Quad after Mr. Modi became prime minister. Given the increasing aggressiveness of China in the region, India’s diplomatic, economic, and military interactions with Quad likely to be strengthened by the return of the Modi government. 

Economic and Strategic Calculations

India’s allegiance to the Quad is conditioned on the preservation of an open, free, and rule-based international order, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as its shared economic and democratic principles. Due to its possession of vital maritime supply routes and communication connections that power India’s economic expansion, the Indian Ocean remains India’s top priority. The newly formed Indian execution, led by Prime Minister Modi, will undoubtedly be aware of China’s provocative actions in the South China Sea and its inherent extension to the Indian Ocean. India is primarily interested in countering Beijing’s inclination towards the “grey zone” maritime policy and the employment of research vessels due to its excessive reliance on the Indian Ocean. 

Additionally, India’s approach to Quad has benefited from Quad’s persistent efforts to address the issue of supply chains, including the relocation of global supply chains from China to other locations. This will assist New Delhi lessen its excessive reliance on China and the associated strategic vulnerabilities. This is consistent with Prime Minister Modi’s goal of transforming India into a “great power” by boosting the country’s industrial capacity through  “Make in India” program. Furthermore, India is bracing itself to withstand the shocks caused by disruptions in the Chinese supply chains by strengthening its economic ties with the Quad countries. 

However, from New Delhi’s perspective, Quad’s strategic importance outweighs its economic consequence. To put it accurately, China’s actions along India’s borders and growing encirclement of India in the Indian Ocean pose a serious threat to India’s security. The two notorious border skirmishes between India and China, Doklam and Galwan, happened during PM Modi’s leadership, and both incidents helped India rethink the Quad’s strategic importance in its interactions with China. India was forced to give up its long-standing strategic autonomy in order to pursue deeper cooperation with the Quad Allies as a result of China’s unilateral moves to change the status quo along the border. In a subtle jab at China in the midst of its aggressive military manoeuvring in the strategically significant Indo-Pacific region, Prime Minister Narendra Modi alluded to “dark clouds of coercion and confrontation” that are casting their shadow over the region

The Quad serves as a bridge connecting the US and India and is a vital power diffuser in the Indo-Pacific region. China’s ascent in the Indo-Pacific has put the US alliance system to the test and made Taiwan as the centre of the conflict between the two superpowers.  Now India is carefully assessing its Taiwan policy by giving more room for cooperation on multiple levels. The fact that tensions between the two nations had already increased by the time of PM Modi’s official statement to Taiwan, China was not pleased with it. All the Quad members share the same statute with Taiwan where they started to pull out of so called ‘One China Policy’.  On the other hand, all of them depends on Taiwan’s cutting edge semiconductor industry and concerned over any potential conflict with China over Taiwan. In that case, maintaining the region’s wildly fluctuating power balance depends on Quad. The Quad partners and the region as a whole will suffer as a result of China’s claims in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Challenges on the Way

On the flip side, India and its Quad allies are facing a number of diplomatic difficulties as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In recent years, India’s shift toward the west relative to Russia has become apparent, and this has resulted in stronger ties with the Quad. India’s alliance with Quad may be viewed as a tactical hedge against its excessive reliance on Russian energy and weapons. India’s quad partners are keeping a careful eye on the country’s position over Ukraine as a sign of its dedication to upholding international law and national sovereignty. 

Still, a number of obstacles stand in India’s way of realizing its Quad ambitions, chief among them being the inability to formally form an alliance with Quad. Its participation in BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization has a pervasive effect on its partnership with Quad. India has been balancing on the edge of two hostile sides for a while now, but it is getting harder now that Russia has invaded Ukraine and it is at odds with China on its borders.

Not only that, but economic pragmatism also jumps in because China remains India’s main supplier of imported commodities and supply chain connections. While Western attempts to shift global manufacturing away from China have not yet shown dividends, the Modi government must balance the two options without jeopardizing its local market.