Smart but stinky strategies in California's Senate race
California Politics ,Election 2024,Homepage News
George SkeltonFeb. 19, 2024
An ancient proverb is at play in the fight over a U.S. Senate seat held for 30 years by the late Dianne Feinstein.
The proverb: The enemy of my enemy is my friend.
Think Roosevelt and Churchill helping dictator Stalin repel Hitler in World War II. Or the Reagan administration backing Iraqi strongman Saddam Hussein in his war against anti-American Iran in the 1980s.
True, a Senate race isnt the same as a shooting war. Not exactly. But as Prussian military theorist Carl von Clausewitz put it in the early 1800s: Politics is war without bloodshed while war is politics with bloodshed.
In war or politics, the old proverb speaks to a similar tactic: Do whats necessary to remove your biggest threat.
In the race to fill Feinsteins former seat, the Democratic front-runners biggest threat is not the leading Republican contender, but another Democrat. Its practically impossible for a Republican to win a California Senate seat in a state where Democrats hold a nearly 2-to-1 voter registration advantage and the GOP has imploded.
Thats why Rep. Adam B. Schiff (D-Burbank) the front-runner based on polling and campaign cash is going full bore to boost Republican former baseball star Steve Garvey in the March 5 primary election. Garvey, who has some name identification
ID
among older baseball fans but only pocket change in his campaign kitty and no political experience, would be an easy out in the November general election.
So Schiff is focused on promoting his preferred November opponent, Garvey. It reminds me of gerrymandering now outlawed in California but still practiced in many states in which politicians choose their own voters in redrawing legislative and congressional districts.
Politicians helping their weakest opponent while odorous makes strategic sense in California. Our open primary system allows everyone to vote on the same ballot, regardless of their party. And the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November election. So it opens the door for two Democrats to compete against each other.
Schiffs biggest political threat is fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of Irvine. She could be a tough competitor in November. Porter currently is in a close fight with Garvey for the No. 2 runoff spot.
Therefore, That’s why
Schiffs television ads are promoting Garvey among Republican viewers as a two-time Donald Trump supporter who could swing the Senate to GOP control. Thats ostensibly a knock on Garvey, but its intended to rally support for him among Republican viewers. Garvey doesnt have any money to promote himself on TV, so Schiff is doing it for him.
Meanwhile, the way I view Schiffs latest TV ad, hes now also subtly promoting Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), who has been trailing the field in fourth place. Its another way of helping Garvey.
Schiff
naturally
is hoping that Lee will draw liberal and female votes away from Porter. Women dominate the Democratic voter base.
Schiffs new TV spot uses footage from the four candidates first debate last month.
A narrator begins: Democrats agree. Conservative Republican Steve Garvey is the wrong choice for the Senate.
Then the camera cuts to Lee, who looks and sounds solid: Our Republican opponent here on this stage has voted for Donald Trump twice.
Schiff doesnt
use
spend much time on himself: Mr. Garvey, you voted for him twice.
Then comes Porter. Schiffs ad maker couldnt have chosen a worse clip of her. She looks agitated and awkward, waving her hand, presumably at Garvey. And shes not understandable because someone is talking over her.
According to the ads script distributed to reporters, Porters muddled comment to Garvey is: As your own man, what is your decision? That presumably was a response to his refusing to say whether hed vote for Trump a third time. But theres no context for it in the ad. And no viewer can tell what shes saying anyway.
Its a really clever ad, says Republican consultant Rob Stutzman. It features Lee prominently. And Porter, you can barely see her face. Its three-dimensional chess.
A Schiff campaign spokesperson denied that helping Lee was part of the plan. Regardless, it might well do that. And its likely to hurt Porter.
In the interest of good government and democracy, Id rather see Porter or Lee run against Schiff in November. Garvey seems to possess little knowledge of national issues or have any policy agenda. Hes floating through the contest on his remaining name ID and GOP brand among Republican voters. Porter or Lee would generate a more interesting face-off and give voters a credible choice.
After Schiff began promoting Garvey on TV, Porter wrote on X: Adam Schiff knows he will lose to me in November. Thats what this brazenly cynical ad is about furthering his own political career, boxing out qualified Democratic women candidates. We need honest leadership, not political games.
But now Porter has descended from the high road and is
playing the same political game
she initially castigated Schiff for employing. Shes running an online ad designed to boost virtually unknown GOP candidate Eric Early among Republican voters. Her aim is to help Early draw Republican votes away from Garvey. MAGA Republican Eric Early proudly stands with Donald Trump while Steve Garvey refuses to tell us who he supports, the Porter ad says. Garvey claimed he might even vote for Joe Biden. Its true that Garvey has dodged answering whom he supports for president this year. Schiff and Porter are both cleverly playing by the rules. Its not dirty. But as Porter first said, its blatantly cynical.Porter ran her own TV spot that began with a one-second snip of Schiffs ad. This ad? the narrator says, Typical. Politicians. Hes bad. Im good. Blah, Blah. Lets shake things up with Katie Porter.But Schiff is playing by the rules laid out by the system. Its cynical and smart.
Gov. Gavin Newsom used the same tactic in 2018 while running against two high-profile Democrats former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and state Treasurer John Chiang in the
2018
gubernatorial primary.
Newsom ran a TV ad promoting obscure Republican John Cox and pushing him into the November runoff.
Like Schiff with Garvey,
Newsom ostensibly attacked Cox for standing with Donald Trump. That sold him to Republican voters.
Republican Garvey is now Democrat Schiffs best friend until he drops him cold on March 6. Republican Garvey is now Democrat Schiffs best friend and Early is Porters until both GOP also-rans are dropped cold on March 6.