Scientists have confirmed 2023 will be the hottest year on record, with the official declaration from climate change service Copernicus, run by the EU, made with a month to spare.

The startling heat records come as large parts of Australia are set to endure heatwave conditions, with temperatures expected to reach over 40 degrees in some places.

The world can’t stop breaking heat records this year, with each month since June becoming the warmest on record.

The Copernicus data confirmed the trend, with the warmest November on record globally hitting 1.75 degrees above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial reference period.

“2023 has now had six record-breaking months and two record-breaking seasons,” Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, said.

“The extraordinary global November temperatures, including two days warmer than 2ºC above pre-industrial, mean that 2023 is the warmest year in recorded history.”

The global mean temperature so far this year is 1.46 degrees above pre-industrial times, with leaders at the annual global climate conference COP28 in Dubai in the midst of negotiations on how to keep the world below the agreed 1.5 degrees of warming.

“As long as greenhouse gas concentrations keep rising we can’t expect different outcomes from those seen this year,” Carlo Buontempo, Director of Copernicus Climate Change Service, said.

“The temperature will keep rising and so will the impacts of heatwaves and droughts. Reaching net zero as soon as possible is an effective way to manage our climate risks.”

Bracing for heat

The report found that temperatures in November were substantially above normal over parts of Central Asia, North America, almost all of Africa, especially the north and extending over the Middle East, as well as parts of South America, especially Brazil, Bolivia and Paraguay.

Temperatures were well above average over Western Australia, which saw a heatwave across the state towards the end of November.

It comes as a heatwave grips large parts of the country, which has been shifting eastwards and concentrating over NSW over the weekend.

The Bureau of Meteorology is warning for severe intensity heatwave conditions in much of inland New South Wales, extending to coastal areas in coming days, with temperatures expected to reach the mid-40s in some parts of the state.

Major General Peter Dunn, member of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, said Australians have watched the northern hemisphere swelter through repeated heatwaves this year and were now ‘anxiously awaiting the arrival of our own’.

“Extreme heat, like what we’re seeing today and over the course of the weekend, not only makes any fires that ignite burn hotter and harder, it also overwhelms the ability of our emergency services to cope,” the former ACT Emergency Services Commissioner said.

“Climate change is devastating communities now, and we cannot afford to keep adding fuel to the fire. It is well and truly time that Australia left polluting fossil fuels in the ground.”

Mercury tips over threshold

Global temperatures have been 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial reference level every day since the 6th of September, according to Copernicus.

In 2015, 195 nations adopted the Paris Agreement with the goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Overall, the amount of days above 1.5 degrees is now at 43 per cent for the year, more than double the previous warmest year on record, 2016, which had 21 per cent of days above that level.

The Copernicus report said if December records a similar temperature anomaly to November, the average temperature for 2023 will be 1.48 degrees above the pre-industrial reference level.

The December 2023 temperature would have to average more than 0.2 degrees below the 1850-1900 level for the year 2023 to be colder than the previous warmest year 2016.

“It is thus virtually certain that 2023 will become the warmest calendar year on record,” the report said.