Suddenly, Qatar is one of the most important countries in the world.
The behind-the-scenes role Qatar is playing is a key factor in why the Israeli army has still not begun a ground invasion of Gaza.
Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears keen to give the go-ahead to the troops. The army is primed to go, having been sitting along the border for more than a week. Army reservists — more than 300,000 of them — have reported for duty and are ready for war. The majority of Israeli media is behind an invasion. And there’s strong public support.
So why hasn’t it happened? One of the important reasons is Qatar and hostage negotiations.
This is the same small Arab country that spent $US220 billion on last year’s soccer World Cup — by far the most ever spent by any country to buy the world’s most popular sporting event.
But the new war between Israel and Hamas has done something very different for Qatar: it’s gone from being at the centre of world sport to the centre of international politics.
Key world leaders now want to talk to Qatar — made all the more interesting given that Qatar is a major funder and supporter of Hamas.
A Qatari official told NBC News that between 2012 and 2021, Qatar provided $US1.49 billion in financial aid to support projects for Palestinian civilians in Gaza, governed by the Hamas Government in Gaza.
NBC News also reported that the deal triggered criticism in Israel and discomfort in Washington. But former US officials, who were in government at the time, said there were no easy options given that Hamas, which had crushed its political rivals, was firmly in charge.
“I think there was broad recognition that the situation in Gaza was pretty awful,” former CIA Director John Brennan has said. “There needed to be some flow of funds from somewhere [and] Qatar had the financial wherewithal to do that.”
Over several years Qatar has also offered Hamas officials a base in the country, believing they are in danger from Israel if they remain in Gaza.
It’s not the first time Qatar has acted as an intermediary to third parties. It facilitated the 2020 Doha Agreement which featured talks between the US and the Taliban .
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is now in regular contact with Qatar. And France’s President Emmanuel Macron also wants to talk to Qatar’s leaders.
Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made a point of meeting Qatar’s leaders this week including Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, to see whether he can get Britain’s hostages near the front of the Qatar-Hamas release queue.
The source of Qatar’s new power
This sudden and dramatic new status for Qatar comes from the fact that if your country has hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, Qatar is your best chance — perhaps your only chance — of getting them out.
Washington has noted the growing importance of Qatar in recent years, particularly as an indirect channel to Hamas.
Blinken – not known for his interest in soccer – visited Doha for the opening of the FIFA World Cup. The US State Department put a folksy spin on it. “The Secretary will be cheering on the US Men’s National Team in its first game of the World Cup, as the United States takes on Wales,” it said.
The State Department said Blinken would recognise “Qatar’s important contribution to international sports diplomacy as it hosts the World Cup”.
The statement could accurately have added: “The Secretary will also be ensuring that Qatar will be a possible mediator with Hamas should there be a new round of hostilities with Israel.”
In between cheering for the US team, Blinken slipped away for a meeting with Qatar’s deputy prime minister and foreign minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani.
The dramatic rise in the Qatar’s status highlights a fascinating dynamic in world politics. There has rarely been a clearer example of how realpolitik can trump idealism and morality. The source of Qatar’s new power is simple: its access to Hamas.
And in the brutal world of hostage negotiations, on this occasion Qatar’s commodity is the 222 hostages trapped in Gaza, many believed to be being held in Gaza’s underground tunnel network — the so-called “Gaza metro”.
A powerful presidential campaign image?
While the US has spoken loudly about the savage attacks of October 7, Washington is beating a path to Hamas’ closest ally, Qatar. Qatar’s funding and support of Hamas has given it a seat at the top table of international politics.
Is this not rewarding Qatar because of its support for Hamas by giving it a status that it has never had before?
Countries that have hostages in Gaza will do virtually anything to get them out. The White House was quick to release video of President Joe Biden speaking to the two Americans — a mother and daughter — who were the first of the hostages that Qatar convinced Hamas to release.
Just as a leader can delight in the release of each of their prisoners, failure to be seen to be securing their release create a major liability for them.
There were 22 American citizens taken on October 7. After the release of two, 20 remain in Gaza.
As Biden is set to formally begin his re-election campaign, imagine how powerful an image it would be for him to stand at Andrews Airforce Base and welcome home 20 American hostages.
In campaign terms, this would be gold — Biden’s tie-a-yellow-ribbon-around-the-old-oak-tree moment.
But if one side of the electoral sword is a popularity surge, the other reflects enormous danger. Just as Biden could parlay into success pictures of him on prime-time television hugging 20 returned hostages, so would the return of 20 dead Americans be his Jimmy Carter “hostages-in-Iran” moment.
“Joe Biden does not want body bags coming back to America,” veteran Israeli journalist Akiva Eldar tells me. “Hamas is so clever — they know that the pressure from the Israeli families of hostages is so strong. Once the Israeli public realised there was room for some kind of deal on hostages they began to pull back on support for a ground invasion.
“The message to Americans from the release of the two American hostages was that you have something to lose if soldiers go in. The message to Israelis from the release of the two Israeli hostages is that you have something to lose if soldiers go in.”
Hamas is now on the defensive
Israeli media reported this week that several US military commanders have been embedded at Israeli military headquarters in Tel Aviv. They are believed to be advising both on the hostages and any ground war.
The October 7 attack was impeccably planned. It’s not easy to break through the defences of the most powerful military in the Middle East and then wreak havoc for several hours.
But now Hamas — with Qatar’s assistance — appears to be playing a very shrewd game with the hostages.
Hamas wants to stop an Israeli ground invasion completely — or delay one for as long as possible. After saturation bombing, which the IDF has carried out as part of its preparation for an invasion, Hamas is now on the defensive.
It wants more time to try to build more missiles and prepare positions to fight the Israeli army. To buy time, it has two target audiences — Americans and Israelis.
The first hostages it released were Americans — a mother and daughter. Then, four days later, the next two were Israelis — two elderly women.
Hamas quickly changed its hostage rhetoric. In the first days of the war, it said that it would not release any hostages while Israel was bombing. Israelis say that boosted support for Israel to enter Gaza — if you have no chance of hostages being released, then the next best thing is to go in and try to rescue them.
But if there is a chance of hostages being released, then why not wait and keep trying before you try the much higher-risk rescue option?
The Middle East’s shifting dynamics
So right now, the US, Israel, France and other countries are dancing to Hamas and Qatar’s hostage music.
Immediately after October 7, says Akiva Eldar, the Israeli media were overwhelmingly in favour of going in and destroying Hamas. “Now people in the media are trying to talk more rationally,” he says. “It’s not just a revenge. More and more you see opinion articles in the newspapers saying revenge is a bad adviser.”
On his recent trip to Israel President Biden met families of American hostages. Israeli media reported that Biden made a commitment to the families that he would get their relatives home.
French President Emmanuel Macron, in his meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem this week, stated that securing the release of the hostages must be the “first objective” for Israel. He said nine French citizens were hostages.
Macron also said there needed to be “a decisive re-launch” of the peace process with Palestinians. After he left Israel he said that a major ground offensive by Israel would be an error.
Hamas’ attack in southern Israel on October 7 has changed the dynamic in the Middle East. The long-simmering rivalry and hostility between Israel and Iran has been brought to the surface.
Militarily, Israel has the United States in its corner — including in the Mediterranean, with two aircraft carrier groups — while Iran has Hezbollah primed in southern Lebanon, with its 100,000 or more missiles ready to be fired at Israel.
Through all this dramatic escalation and realignment comes Qatar, the world’s newest diplomatic superpower.