Mayor Karen Bass appeared to be on the path to an easy reelection, with no serious challengers in sight after a relatively drama-free first two years in office.

But that was before a wildfire annihilated swaths of Pacific Palisades, putting Bass’ leadership under a national microscope, and before the city slid into a major financial crisis, with Bass searching for cuts to close a nearly $1-billion budget gap.

Now, the first-term mayor is markedly more vulnerable. The chattering among the city’s political class about potential competitors has grown louder. But it’s unclear whether anyone will mount a serious challenge to an incumbent who still wields considerable clout.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass shakes hands with Altadena resident Alphonso Browne after he received food boxes and other items from the mayor at a Labor Community Services event where air purifiers, food and other necessities were given to fire victims in Bell on Feb. 22, 2025.

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

“You’re only actually vulnerable if a viable candidate runs against you,” said Sara Sadhwani, an assistant professor of politics at Pomona College. “Right now, we don’t see who that viable candidate would be.”

The $108-million dollar question remains whether Bass’ frequent antagonist and former opponent Rick Caruso will challenge her again. Caruso, who was at times more visible after the Jan. 7 fire than the mayor, spent unprecedented sums of his personal fortune in the 2022 race, only to lose to Bass by nearly 10 points.

The developer has intimated that he’s weighing a run for either mayor or governor — or might sit out the next cycle. His deep pockets give him the luxury of avoiding a decision until he absolutely has to, meaning he could wait until early 2026 before entering the fray.

A number of other names keep coming up in political circles, though none have said they plan to run, and several have swatted away the idea.

The list includes Councilmember Monica Rodriguez, an iconoclastic force who has been sharply critical of the mayor’s initiatives; Councilmember Traci Park, who represents the Palisades and has become something of a folk hero in her district since the fire; and City Controller Kenneth Mejia, who waged an insurgent leftist campaign in 2022 and has been fiercely outspoken on the reasons for the city’s financial crisis.

Some political insiders have raised the possibility of another maverick, business-friendly candidate emerging from outside the system, though few of the names floated seem particularly realistic.

The June primary is still 14 months away, an eternity in politics. Time might heal all wounds for the embattled mayor, and the Democratic Party establishment could re-circle the wagons around her like it did in 2022. Or she could stumble further.

As a candidate, Bass made homelessness her signature issue, pledging to move people off L.A.’s streets and into housing. Although she has made progress on that front, Los Angeles County’s recent decision to pull more than $300 million out of the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority will complicate her efforts.

In any case, it may be recovery from the fire — and not homelessness — that defines Bass’ legacy. Many Angelenos expressed dissatisfaction with her early fire response, with less than 1 in 5 characterizing it as good or excellent, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by The Times, conducted in late February.

The mayor drew public ire for traveling out of the country before the fires exploded, taking a diplomatic trip to Ghana despite warnings of severe winds. She floundered when initially asked about her trip, faced criticism from her fire chief — whom she later ousted — and appeared to be out of sync with her own recovery czar.

Bass is also facing a recall attempt, though it will be a steep climb for organizers to collect enough signatures to force a vote.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, right, and Los Angeles Fire Chief Kristin Crowley address the media at a news conference on Jan. 11.

(Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times)

Bass’ political consultant, Doug Herman, said the mayor remains “laser-focused on delivering results for this city.”

“Mayor Bass is continuing to lead with drops in crime, the first decrease in homelessness in years and is currently turning Los Angeles around from the devastating wildfires with one of the fastest recovery and rebuilding efforts in modern California history,” he said.

Several polls have been circulated to voters in recent weeks, asking what they think of Bass’ performance and how they would rate a number of potential candidates for mayor, including Rodriguez, Park, Caruso and Bass. It’s unclear who paid to put each poll in the field.

Caruso, a billionaire mall mogul, said through a spokesperson that he is “wholly focused” on rebuilding work through his nonprofit Steadfast LA — and has yet to make any decision about his political future. But he brought on veteran Democratic political consultant Eric Koch in January to do communications for him and is thought to be behind at least one of the recent polls.

Bass handily vanquished Caruso in 2022, after branding him as a Republican. It’s unclear how that line of attack will play four years later, with the city still in recovery mode and Angelenos feeling far more frustration toward the incumbent mayor.

But Angelenos’ fury toward President Trump could also hurt Caruso, who only registered as a Democrat in January 2022, less than a month before filing to run in that year’s mayoral election.

Regardless, Bass will have one major advantage she didn’t have the last go-round: support from the Los Angeles Police Protective League, the union that represents rank-and-file LAPD officers, which backed Caruso last time.

The union’s campaign committee spent more than $3 million attacking Bass in 2022. Now, the union credits the mayor, along with its police officers, with driving down the number of homicides, burglaries and shootings across the city.

“The Los Angeles Police Protective League enthusiastically endorses Mayor Karen Bass for re-election, and we look forward to ensuring the residents of our city know that this mayor has an unwavering commitment to keep Angelenos and police officers safe,” the league’s board said in a statement.

For Bass, the most dangerous scenario would be a contest with multiple credible challengers. Mayor James K. Hahn faced that situation during the 2005 primary election and went on to lose in a landslide to then-Councilmember Antonio Villaraigosa.

Mejia said through a representative that he has no interest in running for mayor at this time. He recently formed a campaign committee to run for a second term as controller in 2026.

Park, who is also seeking reelection, has told Bass that she has no plans to run against her.

Los Angeles City Councilwoman Traci Park talks to attendees during a community gathering for Palisades fire victims at the YMCA on Jan. 21.

(Ringo Chiu / For The Times)

“The councilmember has made it clear that she needs to be with her constituents at this time of crisis in her district,” said Park spokesperson Pete Brown.

As of early April, two people had filed paperwork to challenge Bass: Vincent Wali and Asaad Y. Alnajjar. Wali has little public profile, and Alnajjar is a longtime city engineer.

“The real question is, if [Caruso] doesn’t run, can someone fill that void. … People are clearly looking at what is the sort of moderate to right lane to challenge her,” said Mike Bonin, a progressive former city council member and the incoming executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at Cal State Los Angeles.

The lack of challengers has left some civic leaders casting around for more options.

“Many of us are looking for someone with an alternative vision and the necessary courage to move our city in a different direction,” said Sam Yebri, board president of Thrive LA. The centrist civic organization and political action committee spent more than $600,000 in the last election cycle, with a focus on safety and quality of life issues, Yebri said.

Thrive LA expects to endorse in the 2026 mayoral race and “spend significantly” on someone “who’s going to move L.A. in a different direction,” according to Yebri, though the group has yet to choose a candidate.

Rodriguez, who represents much of the northeast San Fernando Valley and has been unafraid to scrap with both the mayor and her fellow council members, could provide a departure from Bass’ policies.

When reached by The Times, Rodriguez declined to say whether she would consider a run for mayor. She said she is committed both to her constituents and “the people of Los Angeles.” Like Park and Mejia, she faces reelection in 2026.

“I remain undeterred in my focus on the work to improve the lives of every Angeleno,” Rodriguez said in a statement.

A possible dark horse is L.A. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, whose district includes the Palisades and who has been a thorn in Bass’ side in recent months.

Horvath spearheaded the supervisors’ recent vote to move the more than $300 million out of the region’s homeless services agency, despite warnings from Bass that it would hurt the city and create a “massive disruption” in the fight against homelessness. In text messages to Bass in late January, she expressed deep frustration about the mayor’s failure to communicate with her after the fire.

Horvath lives in West Hollywood, which is bounded by Los Angeles on three sides, formerly serving as mayor of the 1.9-square-mile city. She had already been looking to move out of her rental apartment before the fires and is open to relocating to L.A., according to someone with knowledge of her thinking who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly.

Horvath intends to run for reelection in 2026 and has already opened her campaign committee. But she is being pushed by her donors to explore a run for L.A. mayor and hasn’t ruled out the possibility, the person close to her said.

“I am not actively pursuing it. I am grateful for the trust the public has placed in me to do this work and remain faithful to their call to serve where I am needed most,” Horvath told The Times.

Gina Viola, a community activist and small business owner, was virtually unknown to voters before building a grassroots leftist campaign for mayor in 2022. Viola, who finished fourth with nearly 7% of the vote in that primary, said she has not made a decision about next year’s race.

“I’m getting asked a lot, and I’m very disappointed that other people aren’t picking up the ball and running with it,” she said.

Mayoral Candidate Rick Caruso arrives at Emerson College in Hollywood on Oct. 7, 2022, ahead of attending a Hollywood Chamber of Commerce event.

(Francine Orr / Los Angeles Times)

Viola is still hoping that another candidate to the left of the Democratic establishment will emerge, who is “less old and less white” than herself.

Bass has already raised nearly $1.4 million for her reelection, but there are questions about whether muted enthusiasm might dampen high-dollar giving this time around.

Hollywood luminary Jeffrey Katzenberg put nearly $2 million into an independent expenditure committee supporting Bass in 2022, but a spokesperson declined to comment when asked whether Katzenberg planned to support her in 2026.

Bass is expected to maintain strong support from her allies in organized labor. Three months ago, when she was fielding major criticism over her handling of the Palisades fire, an assortment of unions declared their support for her.

The race will likely take clearer shape once Caruso makes his decision.

“The Rick of it all is freezing the field,” said one Democratic strategist who did not want to speak publicly because of relationships with various players. “Everybody’s waiting to see whether Rick runs.”