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(Bloomberg) — A renewed wave of volatility gripped global markets just days ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout, with stocks erasing losses in the final stretch of a jittery quarter. As equities bounced, bonds moved away from session highs. Gold climbed to a record.

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From New York to London and Tokyo, stocks were hit by intense swings. While the S&P 500 wiped out a 1.7% drop, US shares saw their worst quarter compared to the rest of the world since 2009. Defensive groups outperformed. Energy producers joined a rally in oil as Trump suggested the US may work to curtail crude shipments from Russia. A gauge the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps extended a quarterly rout to 16% amid lingering concerns of an artificial-intelligence bubble.

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It’s the first time since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 that bonds rose and stocks fell in a three-month period. The dollar, long a go-to hiding place during market selloffs, has not been acting as such lately. While the greenback saw a mild gain Monday, it suffered the worst start to a year since 2017.

The Trump administration’s mixed messaging on what new tariffs will be unveiled Wednesday and how they’ll be announced have traders flustered as they try to position around the biggest risk confronting the market in years. 

Trump will announce his reciprocal tariff push on Wednesday during an event in the White House Rose Garden. His top spokesperson said the announcement would feature “country-based” tariffs, but added that the president is also “committed” to implementing sectoral duties at another time.

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“Tariffs will likely continue to drive the market discussion,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Whether tariffs are more or less rigid than expected could go a long way toward shaping the market’s near-term momentum.”

The S&P 500 rose 0.6%. The Nasdaq 100 was little changed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%. Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. led losses in megacaps, while Apple Inc. gained. Newsmax Inc. shares skyrocketed in their debut session. Vaccine stocks plunged after a top regulator left the US Food and Drug Administration.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.22%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%. Gold topped $3,100 for the first time.

Trump’s trade war revived fears that the economy could stall, but most economists still aren’t anticipating the US will fall into an actual recession in the next year, but they do say the chance of an economic contraction has increased. Another worry, in the view of economists and market watchers, is the risk that a slowdown in growth will occur alongside accelerating inflation, a dreaded scenario known as stagflation.

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Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams told Yahoo Finance there’s a risk of higher inflation this year, though his baseline view is that it will remain relatively stable.

Amid all the concern about the economic impacts of tariffs, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s David Kostin cut his S&P 500 target, and now expects the benchmark to end the year around 5,700 versus his previous estimate of 6,200.

“If the growth outlook and investor confidence deteriorate even further, valuations could decline much more than we forecast,” Kostin wrote in a note. “We continue to recommend investors watch for an improvement in the growth outlook, more asymmetry in market pricing, or depressed positioning before trying to trade a market bottom.”

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Keith Lerner at Truist Advisory Services noted that  as the economic backdrop weakens relative to consensus expectations, earnings are likely to be reset lower at a time where valuations are improved but not compelling. 

“Investors should be more neutral and less on offense relative to recent years given a more mixed risk/reward backdrop,” he said. “Thus, we expect the choppy market environment to persist over the next several weeks and likely months, and we are not likely to see a quick return to new highs.”

A stock-market signal is flashing a warning to investors hoping for a speedy recovery from this year’s sharp equity selloff.

The correlation between individual S&P 500 — measuring the degree to which they move in tandem — stands near the lowest level in 25 years even after rising this month, according to data compiled by independent strategist Jim Paulsen. 

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So far, “we have had a very methodical and almost boring correction,” said Paulsen, whose four-decade career on Wall Street included stints at Leuthold Group and Wells Capital Management. “Correlation is just another component that tells me we haven’t done what we need to do to set us up for the next leg higher.”

Stock market traders have their eyes glued to some key technical charts to get a sense of where the market is headed next as the equities rout becomes increasingly intense over fears of trade uncertainty and slowing economic growth.

The S&P 500 briefly sank below the first ominous milestone traders were watching at the start of the session — 5,504.65, the most recent intraday low touched on March 13. But the broad equities benchmark quickly reclaimed that level. The question now is whether it stays there.

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Technical strategists also recommend keeping an eye on market breadth, looking for more evidence of washed-out conditions. A 10% or less reading in the percentage of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average would be “a good sign of a capitulation,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. 

Before the Bell: Tariffs Weigh, Goldman Slashes S&P Target

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

• The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
• The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
• The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
• Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.4%
• The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.6%

Currencies

• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
• The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0810
• The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2914
• The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 149.99 per dollar

Cryptocurrencies

• Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $82,430.71
• Ether rose 0.7% to $1,827.88

Bonds

• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.22%
• Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.74%
• Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.67%

Commodities

• West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.9% to $71.40 a barrel
• Spot gold rose 1.3% to $3,124.21 an ounce

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