Liberal-leaning judges have a 4-3 majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Justice Ann Walsh Bradley, a liberal judge, announced last year that she will not seek re-election, leaving the majority up for grabs.

Running to fill Walsh’s position are liberal Dane County, Wisc., Judge Susan Crawford and conservative Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel.

Campaign spending

The Wisconsin Democracy Campaign is tracking campaign spending, drawing data from the Wisconsin Ethics Commission, Federal Elections Commission and Wisconsin’s Campaign Finance Information System.

The campaigns are nearing a record for spending that was set in 2023 when again the ideological majority of the court was at stake. More than $51 million was spent by candidates and special interest groups in that race.

More than $47.4 million has been spent on the April 1 race. The spending record before 2023 was $10 million, set in 2020.

When adjusted for inflation, independent spending has already more than doubled over the 2023 race. Independent expenditures are expenditures for communication, such as advertising, in support for or opposition of a specific candidate.

Molly Carmichael, the organization’s communications director, told UPI spending on the current supreme court race is likely to double the 2023 record.

“If you’re looking at how far we were from the election in 2023, about a week out, we’re double that number,” Carmichael said. “We think it’s probably going to be around $100 million. It’s probably going to get worse and worse.”

As of Wednesday, about $31.4 million had been spent on pro-Schimel campaigning based on independent expenditures. About $16 million has been spent on pro-Crawford campaigning.

Musk has put more money into the race than any individual donor, according to Carmichael. He has done so by donating to two political action committees that are supporting the Schimel campaign, including a new $2 million donation on Monday. The America PAC has donated $12 million and the Building America’s Future PAC has donated about $4.8 million.

Americans For Prosperity, a conservative political advocacy group founded by Charles Koch and his late brother David Koch, has contributed more than $3.1 million to campaigning for Schimel.

Soros, a longtime political target of conservatives, has donated about $2 million to Crawford. Her other largest individual contributors are Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Lynde Bradley Uihlein, a philanthropist from Milwaukee.

A Better Wisconsin Together Political Fund is the top spender among liberal organizations, spending $7.7 million.

“Sometimes it can be bleak thinking about all this money coming into my state from people who don’t even live here,” Carmichael said. “But we also want to encourage people to go vote. The richest man on earth, many of the richest men on earth can’t actually vote in this election, but you can. You can have some agency in this. Money can’t actually vote.”

Why the race has drawn national interest

Bryna Godar, staff attorney with the State Democracy Research Initiative at the University of Wisconsin, told UPI there are several factors that put this race in the national spotlight. Chief among them is the increased role in state courts to decide major issues like abortion rights and gerrymandering laws. The U.S. Supreme Court has deferred authority on those issues to the states.

The Wisconsin Supreme Court often reaches a broader consensus, according to Godar, but some high-profile cases are decided along partisan lines.

“We’ve definitely seen more partisanship arising on the court in the past couple of decades. That’s not to say that everything is partisan,” Godar said. “Overturning state legislative maps last term, that was a 4-3 decision. There were dissenting opinions claiming partisanship by the majority on that.”

Wisconsin is a swing state where elections are often decided by narrow margins. The supreme court can factor into deciding the rules around elections or the final result of an election itself.

The political majority on the court has been more apparent in other important decisions in recent years. In 2022, the conservative majority at the time ruled that ballot drop boxes were illegal. Last year, the liberal majority reversed this decision.

There are also notable examples of justices crossing party lines in crucial decisions. After Trump’s election loss in 2020, the Wisconsin Supreme Court rejected his lawsuit challenging the state’s election results by a 4-3 vote. One conservative justice joined three liberal justices in deciding against the Trump campaign.

The April 1 election is one of the first major elections since Trump took office on Jan. 20.

“A lot of folks are looking to this election as a way to understand how voters are feeling more broadly about the Trump presidency and some of his actions in his first couple months in office,” Godar said.

Musk has been vocal about his interest in the race as well.

“Very important to vote Republican for the Wisconsin Supreme Court to prevent voting fraud,” Musk posted on Jan. 23.

His political action committee America PAC is offering $100 to registered voters in Wisconsin who sign a petition to oppose “activist judges.”

The billionaire Tesla owner has other interests in the state of Wisconsin. Tesla is engaged in litigation against the state over its denial of Tesla’s request to open automotive dealerships in Madison, Milwaukee and Grand Chute. State law prohibits manufacturers from directly selling their vehicles.

In December, the Wisconsin Division of Hearings and Appeals issued a final decision denying the application. Tesla is petitioning for judicial review of the decision, seeking its reversal.

“The [supreme] court’s primary role is in developing law and deciding significant legal questions,” Godar said. “If this case were to fall within their general criteria for review it is something that could come before the supreme court. It’s not obvious it would meet the criteria.”

Godar explains that the state supreme court takes up a very small percentage of petitions each year. In its last term it granted about 2% of petitions for review. In the term prior, it took up about 4% of petitions.

“It’s far too early to say whether that case would make its way to the supreme court or if it’s the type of case they would handle,” Godar said.

Complaints against candidates

In January, the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign filed a complaint against Schimel over concern that he violated judicial election law. In Wisconsin, candidates for the judiciary are not allowed to directly solicit donations.

Candidates can appear at fundraisers and speak with donors but they must leave it to others, such as members of their campaign, to ask for donations.

In a leaked audio clip, Schimel describes asking for donations directly.

“I have to invest in knee pads,” Schimel said “You know, I gotta go to Menards, invest in knee pads to crawl around begging people, ‘please, please, please consider getting involved and supporting my race.'”

Carmichael said the comments are concerning, not just because Schimel is a candidate but because he also serves as a judge in Waukesha County.

“So we filed that complaint because we don’t want that to be normalized,” Carmichael said.

It is unlikely the complaint will be resolved before the election, according to Godar. The Judicial Conduct Commission is investigating the incident.

If Schimel is found to have violated campaign conduct rules there are several ways he may be punished, ranging from a private reprimand to suspension or removal from the bench.

“Suspension or removal are pretty rare,” Godar said. “Additional steps are needed and there would be supreme court involvement. The question for the Judicial Conduct Commission would be whether those comments that are public cross the line and whether they want to investigate further if they have additional evidence. It’s not always easy to figure out where the lines are there.”

Crawford’s campaign filed a complaint against Schimel for allegedly altering an image of her with AI and using it in political advertisements. Campaigns are required to disclose if AI is used in political ads. The Schimel campaign argues that the image was edited but AI was not used.

The Wisconsin GOP also filed a complaint against Crawford in February over a campaign event. The event was a campaign call billed as a donor advisory briefing.

The headline of the email sent to participants of the call read “Chance to put two more House seats in play for 2026.”

The Wisconsin GOP alleges that Crawford’s participation in the call violates the Wisconsin Judicial Code of Conduct. The code prohibits judges from “manifest(ing) bias and pledges, promises, or commitments inconsistent with the impartial performance.” By Crawford participating in the call, the GOP says she is making a “promise” to deliver two House seats to Democrats by changing congressional maps.

Crawford said she was not aware of the email. She has not publicly commented on congressional maps.