Sat. Mar 29th, 2025
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Reuters Rachel Reeves carries a red folder reading "Chancellor of the Exchequer" as she walks in Downing StreetReuters

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has set out her plans for the UK economy during her Spring Statement in the House of Commons.

It came as the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) – which monitors the government’s spending plans – unveiled its latest economic forecasts.

Here is a summary of the main points.

Welfare changes

  • Health-related universal credit for new claimants, which was already due to be halved from April 2026 under a package announced last week, will also now be frozen in cash terms until 2030
  • The standard allowance for universal credit will now rise to £106 per week, instead of £107 per week in 2030
  • As outlined last week, for existing claimants health-related payments will be frozen in cash terms until 2030
  • There will also be a stricter eligibility test for personal independence payments (Pips), the main disability benefit, from November 2026
  • Incapacity benefits to be frozen in cash terms for existing claimants at £97 per week from April next year, with a top-up payment for those with the most severe conditions
  • Those aged under 22 will no longer be able to claim the incapacity benefit top-up of universal credit

Economic forecasts

  • The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has downgraded predicted growth for this year from 2% to 1%
  • But it has upgraded estimated growth for the next four years, to 1.9% next year, 1.8% in 2027, then 1.7% in 2028 and 1.8% in 2029
  • Inflation forecast to average 3.2% this year, up from 2.6% previously forecast, before falling back to 2.1 in 2026
  • Inflation expected to hit 2% government target from 2027
  • The OBR says the government’s changes to the planning system in England will boost the size of the economy by 0.2% by 2030

Defence and overseas aid

  • Defence spending, which had been due to rise £2.9bn next year, to increase by a further £2.2bn
  • The Treasury says this will take military expenditure to 2.36% of national income next year, a “down payment” on plans to raise it to 2.5% by 2027
  • Ministers say the spending will be funded by reducing overseas aid from 0.5% to 0.3% of gross national income in 2027, and from the Treasury’s reserves

Public services

  • Target to reduce the administrative costs of government departments by 15% by 2030
  • About 10,000 civil service jobs are expected to go, including staff working in HR, policy advice, communications and office management
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