Good morning, and welcome to L.A. on the Record — our City Hall newsletter. It’s Julia Wick, giving you the latest on city and county government, with a hand from Rebecca Ellis.

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass may be struggling with rough polling numbers, a snowballing city budget crisis and the threat of a possible recall election.

But at least one thing is working in the mayor’s favor: Given the steep number of signatures required to qualify for the ballot, experts say it’s highly unlikely that the recall election will come to a vote.

“The big hurdle with the recall is getting to the ballot,” said Joshua Spivak, an expert on recall elections and senior research fellow at UC Berkeley Law School’s California Constitution Center. “Most recall efforts — somewhere between two-thirds and three-quarters — fail to get enough signatures to get to the ballot or are abandoned before they really start gathering signatures in the first place.”

Of course, nothing is impossible. Especially if a Silicon Valley philanthropist is willing to throw in millions of dollars.

(But that remains a big if. Nicole Shanahan, who has been listed as the recall’s primary funder, has not responded to The Times. The recall’s spokesperson also did not respond when asked about fundraising and Shanahan’s commitments.)

The effort is “highly unlikely” to succeed, said PCI Campaigns president and owner Angelo Paparella, who works out of a strip mall in Calabasas and is arguably the king of signature-gathering in California.

To force an election, proponents will have to collect the signatures of 15% of registered voters in the city — or 328,526 signatures.

But as backers of recent failed attempts to force former L.A. Dist. Atty. George Gascón and former City Councilmember Mike Bonin into recall elections know all too well, proponents will have to collect far more than that number to ensure they have enough of a buffer after invalid signatures are disqualified. Somewhere between 400,000 to 550,000 signatures would probably be sufficient, according to leaders of several signature-gathering firms.

Paparella joked that it would take a “miracle” to get 400,000 signatures in the city of Los Angeles by August.

“I would say 10% chance of success, maybe at most 15%,” Paparella said.

A few factors will make the process particularly difficult. It’s generally harder to get people to sign a recall petition than one for an initiative, since they tend to be skeptical of recalls. And collecting signatures for a citywide initiative — rather than across the county — tends to be far more onerous, since some people are unsure if they live in the city, leading to more disqualified signatures.

Shanahan’s involvement and the fact that the recall is already being characterized as a Republican effort could also make it more difficult to gather signatures in deep-blue Los Angeles.

Former mayoral candidate Rick Caruso, who remains one of Bass’ most vocal critics, seemed to sense which way the wind was blowing when he spoke out against the recall on X this week, calling it “not a good idea” at a time when L.A. “needs unity, not costly and expensive political distractions.”

How much will it cost?

Paparella thinks that gathering the signatures would cost at least $6 million and possibly more than $8 million, with early signatures costing $10 each and later signatures moving north of $20 a head.

Paul Olson — founder of Goco Consulting, which has gathered signatures for dozens of initiative, referendum and recall petitions throughout California — put the figure a bit lower, saying he would estimate a realistic cost at $5 million to $7.5 million, depending in part on whether the campaign was able to mobilize volunteers to collect some signatures.

Experts agree that the first 100,000 or potentially even 200,000 signatures will be relatively easy to gather, but the difficulty will increase exponentially after that.

“Fifteen percent [of registered voters] is a very significant number,” said another industry veteran, Arno Petition Consultants founder Michael Arno. “At some point, you’re running into people over and over again that have already signed or already declined to sign. And that last probably third of the signatures is going to be like pulling teeth, and that’s where you might see a price that could go up into that higher range, up toward $20” per signature.

All of that will be entirely separate from the cost to taxpayers of administering a citywide special election, which could veer north of $10 million. City and county officials said they did not yet have an estimate for what such an election would cost.

What comes next?

The Bass recall campaign has taken initial steps but has not yet had its petitions approved for circulation, according to the City Clerk’s office. That will probably happen in the next month, after which proponents will have until Aug. 4 to collect signatures.

But even if the recall never makes it to the ballot, the looming specter remains a liability for Bass, who is up for reelection in 2026.

A serious reelection challenger has yet to emerge, but Bass is also more vulnerable after her shaky performance in the wake of the Palisades fire. She was heavily criticized for being out of the country when the fire exploded amid dire wind warnings and for freezing up when confronted by press about her absence. She has also had strained relations with several other leaders, including her since-removed fire chief and L.A. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath.

“Los Angeles just experienced the worst natural disaster in its history,” said Bass political consultant Doug Herman. “An unnecessary and expensive recall would cost taxpayers tens of millions of dollars and distract from the vital rebuilding process that is already months ahead of expectations. A recall would be divisive when our city needs to stay united.”

If enough valid petition signatures are filed by Aug. 4, the recall election could take place sometime in January or early February 2026. If Bass is recalled, a potential runoff between the top two candidates to succeed her would take place nearly three months after, according to city clerk spokesperson Josué Marcus.

That would put a runoff just before the June 2026 primary, which Bass would presumably still be running in.

And unlikely as the recall effort is to make it to the ballot, the mayor could be in considerable jeopardy if it does.

“The vast majority of time, [recall efforts] just don’t get enough signatures,” said Spivak, the recall expert. “But when it gets to the ballot, the chance of success is very high, especially in California.”

State of play

—BILLION-DOLLAR BUDGET CRISIS: L.A.’s financial problems exploded into national view Wednesday, with the city’s top budget official announcing that next year’s shortfall is now just shy of $1 billion, making layoffs “nearly inevitable,” my colleague David Zahniser reports. Bass, who already has quite a few issues on her plate (see above), must present her strategy for closing the $1-billion gap by April 21, the legal deadline for her to release her proposed 2025-26 budget.

—THE CASSANDRA OF CITY HALL EAST: That same day, Los Angeles City Controller Kenneth Mejia shared The Times’ budget report to his Instagram story with the following caption: “It has been sooo difficult being in here (City Hall) because I feel and see everything that’s happening … and going to happen … and it sucks.”

— IN SEARCH OF A NEW RECOVERY CZAR: After a somewhat rocky relationship with the mayor, Chief Recovery Officer Steve Soboroff does not appear to be continuing past his initial 90-day contract. And the city appears to be looking for someone else to fill the role.

At least one longtime local real estate developer said he got a call from a Korn Ferry headhunter aiding the city in its search for a new chief recovery officer. The developer, who declined to speak publicly because he didn’t want to get in the middle of things, said he had “a very general conversation” with Korn Ferry and got the impression that they were looking to fill the role in the next few months. Sam Schear, a senior associate on Korn Ferry’s real estate team, declined to comment.

Bass spokesperson Zach Seidl declined to answer questions about the timeline for the role or to say whether it will be paid. (Soboroff was initially slated to make $500,000 for three months but later agreed to work for free after controversy about the size of his salary.)

Soboroff said no one has consulted him about the search for his replacement. But he said, he wasn’t surprised that the city was looking, since his last day is slated to be April 11.

—ANOTHER ROUGH HEADLINE FOR CITY HALL: The sprawling criminal case around Rollin’ 60s OG Eugene “Big U” Henley has a Spring Street tie-in: Henley is accused of fraudulently obtaining funding through his nonprofit from the Gang Reduction and Youth Development program, which is overseen by the mayor’s office. A spokesperson for Bass said the city has “zero tolerance for malfeasance” and has increased oversight on GRYD programs since she took office.

—FINALLY SOME GOOD NEWS FOR BASS: The mayor and LAPD Chief Jim McDonnell touted the latest batch of crime data on Monday, with figures showing that homicides declined roughly 14% in the city last year compared with 2023, my colleague Libor Jany reports.

—USA, USA, USA … IS OPEN: Olympic Games organizing chairman Casey Wasserman addressed concerns over visas and entry requirements for athletes and delegations taking part in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics. On Thursday, he assured members of the International Olympic Committee that “irrespective of politics today, America will be open and accepting to all 209 countries for the Olympics,” my colleague Steve Henson reports. Wasserman also assured the IOC that no Olympic venues were damaged in the fires and said his client Kendrick Lamar will likely play a role in the festivities.

—ASSESSING THE ROOKIE: Boyle Heights Beat has a look at Councilmember Ysabel Jurado‘s first 100 days in office, finding she has taken initial steps to address streetlight outages and largely voted in line with the rest of council on major items.

—BACK IN THE USSR: Five years after her insurgent campaign made Nithya Raman the first candidate to unseat an incumbent in 17 years, the erstwhile outsider was feted at the ultimate insider event: the LA Political Roast. The longtime annual event, which raises money for the American Diabetes Assn., is put on by lobbyist Arnie Berghoff. The issue was personal for Raman, who had two grandparents with diabetes.

Raman — who is far more of a technocrat than an ideologue — has been attacked by opponents as a so-called radical, in part because of her Democratic Socialists of America backing. Those critiques were at the center of her Red Scare-themed roast, which included a rendition of “Back in the USSR” and a Soviet hammer and sickle flag hanging above her chair. Raman was roasted by Councilmember Bob Blumenfield and former Councilmember Paul Krekorian (who stepped in last minute for Council President Marqueece Harris-Dawson, who was out sick). Blumenfield, who used to perform stand-up comedy, had “real stage presence,” according to one of several attendees who characterized Thursday’s event as among the funnier City Hall roasts. Raman’s rebuttal got high marks from attendees.

—IF YOU SEE SOMETHING, SAY SOMETHING: What do Bass, Caruso and Councilmembers Traci Park and Monica Rodriguez all have in common? Only Bass is currently running for mayor in 2026, but an entity is currently polling on all four, per a screenshot of the poll that a tipster sent us. If this is your poll, we’d love to see the results!

QUICK HITS

• On the docket for next week: The Board of Supervisors will consider approving recommendations for how to allocate over $900 million to tackle homelessness in the upcoming fiscal year. Most of that money comes from Measure A, a half-cent sales tax voters approved last year for homeless services.