On February 28, 2025, in a broadcast watched around the world, President Donald J. Trump unintentionally launched the policy of the Trump Doctrine. In what was supposed to be a photo opportunity, President Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenski about how Ukraine could not survive without the assistance of the United States and exaggerated the amount of aid provided to Ukraine as $350 billion. The United States has only provided $174 billion, of which $30 billion was for other countries. The exchange became so heated that President Zelensky was eventually escorted from the room by Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The Trump Doctrine, which emphasizes that the United States will no longer be the primary defender of Europe and NATO, was inadvertently launched by President Donald J. Trump during a heated exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelenski on February 28, 2025.
The Trump Doctrine can be summed up as follows:
- The United States will no longer be the primary defender of Europe and NATO.
- If the other member states of NATO do not raise their defense budget, the United States may not come to their aid.
- If the United States is forced by circumstances to provide much of the defense, then the country receiving this assistance must repay the United States.
The United States is willing to support countries being threatened or attacked, but from now on will expect payment for the cost of its services. This new doctrine is reminiscent of the policy by ancient Athens called the Delian League.
The Delian League was founded in 478 BCE with Athens as the head of the Delian League headquartered in Delos. The purpose of the League was to organize the defense of the Greek city states against Persian aggression. The League’s treasury was in the Temple of Apollo, and Athens made the decision of where, when, and how the money was to be disbursed. Following a League naval defeat in 454 BCE, Athens transferred the treasury from Delos to Athens. After resolution with Sparta in 448 BCE, the Delian League became the foundation of the Athenian Empire, when Athens used the Delian treasury to strengthen its own navy and army. Just as Athens required financial contributions from its allies in the Delian League, the Trump Doctrine expects countries to repay the U.S. for defense support. Similarly, Türkiye stands to gain from this shift in U.S. policy, given its strategic position and historical ties with Europe
One of the Main Beneficiaries of the Trump Doctrine will be Türkiye.
With the Trump Doctrine demanding that Europe increase its funding for their own defense, Europe is working closely with Türkiye to increase coordination and inoperability of their military forces. At the same time, the presence of Türkiye in NATO is becoming more important to the European members of NATO, given the American decision to no longer be the primary defender of Europe. And this sudden change presents opportunities to Türkiye which were not available previously.
Türkiye Rising
Modern Türkiye was founded in 1923, and ever since then, Türkiye has moved toward the western world; she has modernized her political, social, and economic policies along western lines. Turkish policy makers had hoped that this westernization of Türkiye would open up Türkiye to more investment, cultural and political ties to the European nations. Türkiye’s application to enter the then “European Community” (EC) in 1959 reflected Türkiye’s ambitions as well as its desire to limit Greek influence in the EC.
The progress of Turkish European talks has progressed in fits and starts, and as of 2023 Türkiye is no closer to joining the now European Union. The EU has dragged its feet for decades in the process towards granting membership to Türkiye, but the EU will be the real loser if Türkiye finally runs out of patience and loses interest in membership.
The rise of Türkiye is a new phenomenon in the balance of power in the Aegean and in West Asia. Türkiye is self-sufficient in food. It has a large population of eighty-five million people. The population is highly educated. Türkiye’s territory is the hinge between Asia and Europe. Every fit Turkish male is required to serve in the Turkish armed forces. Türkiye has a standing Army of more than 890,000 troops. Türkiye’s military strength is rated as the 15th ranked military power in the world according to the Global Fire Power index. The Turkish military strength is estimated to be over 1 million members that includes the regular army, paramilitary and naval forces. Türkiye has the world’s 9th largest air force in the world.
Türkiye occupies the Anatolian Peninsula. This is where Europe meet Asia. The Anatolian Peninsula is also called Asia Minor. The geo-strategic position of Türkiye is extremely important, it is a “hinge” so to say between Asia and Europe. With Türkiye in NATO, the EU currently has no need to concern itself with its southern border. But with the balance of power changing in the world, the EU cannot be assured that Türkiye will continue to guard her south flank. By dragging its feet on admitting Türkiye to the EU, The EU risks losing Türkiye as an allied power, and in the future might find her southern flank threatened by Türkiye. Europe seems to realize how important Türkiye is to its survival. With the PKK surrendering to Turkish rule in the Kurdish area, and Türkiye coming to a political understanding with the Kurds, Ankara will be able to withdraw its substantial military forces from the Kurdish areas and deploy them elsewhere.
With the stated intention by the Trump Administration to limit its activity in the defense of Europe, the European Union needs the participation in NATO to help satisfy its security needs. The European Union needs to strengthen its ties with Türkiye and admit Türkiye into the European Union.