Following India’s successful test of a hypersonic missile in November 2024, the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) has set its sights on developing a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV). The achievement has sparked significant enthusiasm within India’s defense, academic, and media circles. However, amidst the celebratory rhetoric, there is a pressing need for a balanced and objective analysis of the project’s technological and geopolitical implications. This is especially important given that India’s hypersonic weapon program is not a new endeavor; it was initiated two decades ago in 2004.

The Technological Challenges of Hypersonic Glide Vehicles

A Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) is a sophisticated system typically mounted on a booster, such as a ballistic missile, which propels it to the edge of Earth’s atmosphere. Once detached, the HGV glides toward its target at hypersonic speeds (Mach 5 or higher). The key advantage of an HGV lies in its maneuverability during flight, enabled by the lift generated as it transitions from the thin air of the upper atmosphere to the denser air closer to the target. This combination of hypersonic speed and maneuverability allows the vehicle to evade missile defense systems and strike targets with precision, even beyond its original trajectory. Unsurprisingly, such advanced and costly systems are primarily designed to deliver nuclear payloads.

So far, only Russia, China, and the United States have successfully tested and operationalized HGVs. Russia’s Avangard and China’s DF-ZF and DF-17 hypersonic weapons are already in service, while the U.S. is expected to field its Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), also known as Dark Eagle, by the end of 2025. Notably, the U.S. program, initiated in 2019, is progressing at an unprecedented pace, courtesy of the collaboration of defense giants like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. In contrast, Russia and China began their programs in the early 2000s, taking nearly two decades to achieve operational status.

India’s hypersonic ambitions date back to the early 2000s. The country conducted its first hypersonic missile test in 2024 and tested the Hypersonic Technology Demonstrator Vehicle (HTDV) in 2020. However, developing a fully functional HGV requires integrating multiple cutting-edge technologies. While India’s extensive ballistic missile program may simplify the boost phase, challenges remain in suborbital deployment, guidance, targeting, and vehicle design. Various design configurations, such as conical, delta winged-body, and blended-body designs, demand significant human, technological, and financial resources.

Given the timelines of other nations with superior technological and economic capabilities, it is reasonable to assume that India’s fully operational HGV is at least a decade away, if not more. Compounding these challenges is the Indian defense sector, particularly the Defense Research and Development Organization’s (DRDO) history of delays, cost overruns, or failure to meet the ambitious targets. For instance, DRDO’s two-layered Ballistic Missile Defense System is an example that has been successfully tested numerous times over the years since 2006. However, the system is still not ready for selective deployment over Delhi and Mumbai, let alone the intended nationwide deployment, as doubts persist about its operational effectiveness, particularly in intercepting multiple and advanced threats.In the immediate term, India’s HGV program is unlikely to significantly impact strategic stability, though its hypersonic missile test remains a cause for concern.

The United States’ Duplicitous Approach to Missile Proliferation in South Asia

Beyond the technological hurdles, India’s pursuit of HGV technology raises intriguing geopolitical questions, particularly regarding its stated objectives and the seemingly contradictory stance of Western powers, especially the United States.

Recent U.S. sanctions on Pakistan, for instance, targeted entities allegedly involved in the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery, citing a potential threat to continental U.S. security. However, Pakistan has consistently maintained that its nuclear and missile programs are India-centric, with no adversarial intent toward the U.S or any other country. The sanctions were ostensibly imposed over Pakistan’s alleged procurement of large rocket motors, which, while used in ballistic missiles to extend its range, are also essential for Space Launch Vehicles (SLVs)—a plausible component of Pakistan’s growing space program.

India’s plans to develop a Hypersonic Glide Vehicle (HGV) with a range of 15,000 km would effectively place nearly any global target within its reach. While India justifies this pursuit by citing China’s expanding military capabilities, the longest aerial distance between the northernmost part of China and the southernmost part of India is only 6,000 km as shown in the figure. This discrepancy raises concerns about India’s true strategic objectives, particularly for the United States, which has taken a strong stance against the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems. Although India is currently aligned with the U.S. in countering China, its long-term ambitions suggest a desire for great-power status, as evidenced by its nuclear program, which has historically been driven more by prestige than by immediate security threats.

The U.S. approach to India’s hypersonic and nuclear advancements appears to be shaped by short-term geopolitical interests rather than long-term strategic calculations. By overlooking these developments and even easing restrictions on India’s nuclear energy sector, Washington risks inadvertently fostering a future competitor. Despite the current enthusiasm for U.S.-India cooperation, concerns persist within American policy circles regarding the stability and reliability of this partnership. If the U.S. continues to prioritize its immediate rivalry with China without considering the broader implications, it may ultimately find itself confronting an emboldened India with advanced strategic capabilities.

Regional and Global Security Concerns

India’s pursuit of hypersonic technology also raises significant concerns for regional and global security, particularly in light of its recent history of command and control lapses. The accidental firing of a BrahMos missile into Pakistan in 2022 marked the first time a nuclear-capable missile was launched between two nuclear-armed states. Such incidents highlight the risks of inadvertent escalation, which could be exacerbated by the introduction of hypersonic weapons.

 While India’s hypersonic ambitions reflect its desire to join the elite club of nations with advanced military capabilities, the technological, geopolitical, and security implications of its HGV program demand careful scrutiny. The U.S. and the international community must adopt a more consistent and principled approach to addressing the proliferation of advanced weapons systems, ensuring that short-term strategic gains do not compromise long-term global stability.