The oil giant cut its dividend to balance shareholder payouts with rising capital investments amid lower crude prices and evolving market conditions.
Saudi Arabian Oil, better known as Aramco, is recalibrating its dividend strategy as it navigates weaker oil prices and rising capital investment demands. The world’s largest oil and gas producer plans to distribute $85.4 billion in dividends this year—down about 30% from $124.3 billion in 2024—reflecting a shift in financial priorities.
The company reported a 12% decline in net income, falling to $106.2 billion from $121.3 billion the previous year, citing “lower prices, lower production volume, and weaker downstream margins.” Against this backdrop, Aramco is directing more resources toward long-term growth, particularly in natural gas expansion and infrastructure investment.
Brent crude oil, for example, was recently trading at around $70 a barrel, reflecting a prolonged slide in prices. Three years ago, it was approximately $100 a barrel.
For Aramco and other energy companies, dividend payments must be carefully balanced against factors such as energy prices, global demand, geopolitics, and financial obligations—particularly capital expenditures that support future growth.
Aramco said it plans to invest between $52 billion and $58 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, compared with $53.4 billion last year. A key focus of its capex strategy is expanding natural gas opportunities. The company’s financial guidance underscores that capital investment remains a top priority.
Aramco’s dividend structure consists of two components: a base dividend and a variable dividend tied to performance. The company plans to pay a base dividend of $84.6 billion this year, while the variable dividend is expected to be $880 million—down significantly from around $43 billion in 2023, according to Reuters.
Other energy companies have adopted similar dual-dividend frameworks, providing flexibility when oil and gas prices decline.
At the same time, Aramco said it plans to boost its first-quarter base dividend by 4.2% to $21.1 billion. However, with the variable dividend dropping so sharply, total shareholder payouts will decline compared with last year.
During the company’s fourth-quarter conference call with analysts on March 3, Aramco executives highlighted its substantial dividend distributions in recent years.
“We have paid more dividends than any other listed company over the past five years, with around $440 billion distributed,” President and CEO Amin Nasser said, according to a transcript of the call.
The company’s variable dividend is linked to performance, paying out 50–70% of free cash flow after subtracting the base dividend and external investments. The first-quarter dividend will be at the high end of that range.
The dividend cut doesn’t just impact shareholders—it also affects Saudi Arabia, which holds a majority stake in Aramco and has used dividend proceeds to help fund the country’s economic development.
Additionally, the lower dividend will reduce the stock’s dividend yield.
In a research note this week, Morningstar analyst Allen Good wrote that he had anticipated Aramco would slash its performance-linked dividend “given rising debt, lower oil prices, and increased capital investment.”
However, he added that the lower payout means “Aramco’s yield is much less competitive with American and European global integrated energy companies.”
Aramco executives will undoubtedly be keeping a close eye on this.