Since the end of World War 2, the economic and political interests of Europe, later the European Union, and the United States were perfectly aligned. The specter of Communism stalked the halls of power in both Europe and the United States. It was this fear that led to the founding of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization on April 4, 1949. Indeed, one of the main reasons for the allies to invade Normandy in June of 1944 was to prevent the then Soviet Union from acquiring the manufacturing capabilities of Western Europe. With “Middle Europe” being taken over by the Communists, the need to draw a line in the capitalist west was seen as a life-or-death matter. Hence the economic, political, and military need for an alliance.
A significant event was the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, which marked the beginning of the end for East Germany’s restrictive border policies and symbolized the beginning of the collapse of communism.
Since then, the economic and political interests of the European Union and the United States have diverged. While the United States should not abandon their nuclear umbrella guarantee to NATO, and continue to supply troops to NATO forces, the US also needs to step away from Europe and pay more attention to Southeast Asia.
The Economic and Geopolitical Interests Dividing the US and the European Union
As Asia has become the economic center of the world, with Asia having 39.1 percent of the world’s wealth in 2023, the economic interests of the United States are better served in Asia than with the statist economies of Europe. 27% of the U.S. GDP is in international trade. 24% of that figure is with Mexico and Canada. That leaves 3% of the GDP of the United States dependent on international trade with the world. With extended trade building between the United States and Asia, despite the Trump Tariffs, the United States needs to devote more time, and resources to protect its economic investment in SE Asia. Attention needs to be paid to the fact that the United States and China are bumping up against each other, despite the Shanghai Communique of 1972.
European Spending on Defense Verces the United States
Since the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States has borne the burden of the economic cost of maintaining strong military forces in the defense of Europe. After the fall, the European members of NATO cut their defense pending drastically and shifted funds towards social services and created a quasi-socialist state in their home countries. This left the United States as bearing the financial burden of Europe’s defense.
While European countries have increased defense spending, the years of neglect on its defense industries have taken its toll. t will take much more funding to bring the European defense industry online to the point where they can ramp up production of military arms, ammunition and a thousand other things that a standing army needs. Increased defense spending means cutting back on the socials services that Europeans have assumed as a right. Already there has been pushback from the people of Europe.
German farmers in January of 2024 blocked roads with their tractors all over the country protesting the subsidies cut to diesel fuel. And since then, there has been a noticeable drift of support to the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party. Previously the AfD had been frozen out of decision-making process, but no longer. The CDU is openly working with AfD in immigration reform. The AfD is projected to win 21 percent of the vote which will take place on the 23rd of February 2025, 10 points behind the CDU. A large part of the AfD supports closer ties with Russia. Many also favor the policy of Ausschloss which is the establishment of a trade route from SE Asia to Berlin. Such a route would require Russia’s assistance and permission.
In January of 2024, the same problem emerged in France when French farmers demonstrated against cuts to their diesel fuel subsidies. While the French government reversed its cuts to the subsidies, it has caused political unrest in France. These issues are spread across the European Union. While European leadership is trying to raise defense spending, the people of Europe do not want to lose their social benefits. This is causing the rise of right-wing governments, governments that favor closer ties to Russia.
On the side of the United States, defense spending is up across the service branches. This situation cannot continue. While the new Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth said that there were no plans to decrease US forces in Europe, he left opens the possibility that a reduction could take place in the future. Mr. Hegseth also commented that Europe should not assume that the United States’s commitment was forever.
The United States and its Allies are Facing Increasing Pressure from China
China has become overly aggressive towards its neighbors, and the United States is increasing the tempo of training programs with its allies in the region. In an unusual move, the US Air Force sent 4 A-10s to the Philippines for 2 weeks in December of 2024. The A-10, known as the Warthog, is not a fighter aircraft, but a close air to ground weapons system designed for anti-armor attack, as well as strafing the infantry in combat. While the A-10s landed at Clark Airfield, they later deployed to Palawan Island. There they participated in a combined US and Filipino military exercise designed to increase and improve inter-operability among the two militaries.
The United States and Europe have daylight between them as regards to the threat that China poses. Between 2018 and 2023, the United States and China began decoupling from each other, while Europe and China increased in trade and economic inter-dependency.
Typically, in the history of alliances changing and reforming, the central element in this type of change is economic. While the United States and Europe still retain a strong military alliance, after an economic change has taken place, military alliances typically follow the economic alliance. No alliance lasts forever, only self-interest lasts forever. What we are seeing now is a drift away from an economic alliance, eventually, the military alliance will follow.