Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam (R) is briefed Friday by Lebanese commanders during his visit to the town of Khiam, one of the most affected areas in Lebanon in the conflict between Israel and the Hezbollah, near the Israeli border in the Nabatieh Governorate of southern Lebanon. Photo by EPA-EFE
BEIRUT, Lebanon, Feb. 28 (UPI) — Hezbollah, which was left with limited options after it was greatly weakened by Israel’s devastating war, has started a new era in which it is making concessions and showing flexibility, but it is not ready to relinquish anti-Israel resistance or be forced to disarm, according to political and military analysts.
The Iran-backed militant group grew from small resistance cells fighting Israeli forces occupying southern Lebanon in the early 1980s to become one of the most powerful non-state actors in the Middle East.
Having lost its top leaders, including its long-time charismatic Secretary-General Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, and most of its military infrastructure during the war, Hezbollah was almost pushed back to its early days.
It is now reinventing and reasserting itself as a political force and would need to maintain its popular base and resistance, as well as ease tensions with the country’s other communities.
The Shiite Muslim group passed its first test when large numbers of faithful supporters attended the funeral ceremony it organized in Beirut on Sunday for Nasrallah and his successor, Hashem Saffiedine, nearly five months after they were assassinated by Israel.
“It was a message to those who say ‘the Shiites were defeated or weakened’ that they are still strong,” Hisham Jaber, a Lebanese military expert and former army general, told UPI.
“Painful blows”
Hezbollah admitted it received “very painful blows” from Israel during their 14-month war that started in October 2023 in support of Gaza and ended on Nov. 27 with the group accepting a cease-fire agreement brokered by the United States and France.
“They also admitted that they should change their tactics and strategy, whether in times of war or peace,” Jaber said. “Also, that Iran cannot keep on dictating what they should do.”
Forced to take a step back now that the balance of power is no more in its favor, Hezbollah turned to the Lebanese state, trusting it — at least for now — with ending Israel’s occupation in south Lebanon and continued aggressions through diplomatic efforts.
“The ball is in the court of the Lebanese state,” Jaber said. “If its efforts fail to force Israel into completing its withdrawal, Hezbollah will be forced to act. … A popular resistance could break out.”
Israel announced it would maintain five military hilltop posts inside south Lebanon when it pulled out its forces Feb. 18, but did not specify when it could evacuate them.
According to Jaber, Israel has effectively retained seven points inside south Lebanon border area.
Green light from Washington
On Thursday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said his country received “a green light” from Washington to “stay without a time limit.”
There also are 13 points on the border that Lebanon claims, but it has agreed to solve the border dispute during negotiations to be facilitated by the United States.
Apart from its diminished military strength and capabilities, Hezbollah is reportedly facing severe financial difficulties after it lost its main supply route from Iran via Syria after President Bashar Assad‘s ouster in December.
Israeli threats to bomb Beirut’s only civilian airport led to strict security measures and banning Iranian planes from landing on suspicion of smuggling cash money to the group.
The financial straits are affecting Hezbollah’s ability to pay its fighters and continue providing health, social and educational services to its followers, according to Riad Kahwaji, who heads the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis.
“That’s why Hezbollah is trying to count more on its religious affiliation and will be seeking more funding through donations; Zakat [almsgiving] or other ways,” Kahwaji told UPI.
Zakat is a mandatory act for Muslims to donate a certain proportion of their money each year to charitable causes.
Reconstruction the most challenging
But the most challenging effort would be reconstructing larges areas destroyed by Israel’s relentless air and ground bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs and eastern and southern Lebanon.
Entire villages in the southern border area were wiped out, while houses, buildings, hospitals, schools and infrastructure were also completely or partially destroyed in the other targeted areas.
The World Bank has initially put Lebanon’s physical damage and economic losses from Hezbollah-Israel war at some $8.5 billion.
Here too, Hezbollah finds itself unable to keep up its promises to rebuild the damages areas, turning to the Lebanese state to secure the necessary funds.
However, any such funds are not to be released by the international community and Arab donors unless Hezbollah fully implements the cease-fire agreement based on U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, and the Lebanese government adopts required reforms.
Under the international resolution, Hezbollah should be fully disarmed; a step the group rejected and justified by the continued Israeli occupation of Lebanese territories and the necessity to retain its military might for Lebanon’s national security.
“I can see strategically why Hezbollah wants more time on the disarmament question,” said David Wood, a senior Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group.
Not many options
But, basically, the group does not have many options.
“They can resist disarmament, became confrontational and risk that their supporters remain outside their [villages and homes], with no money for reconstruction,” Wood told UPI.
A report released by International Crisis Group on Thursday outlined three approaches for Hezbollah’s disarmament: the group and its allies resist disarming; its opponents seek its swift and complete disarmament; and a gradual and negotiated process to shift the balance of power away from Hezbollah without provoking direct confrontation.
A central objective will be convincing Hezbollah that “disarmament need not amount to the party’s complete demise,” according to the report. “That could be a long, slow path, but it has better odds of success than the alternatives.”
“All options are tricky for Hezbollah,” Wood said. “They can compromise and even cooperate with disarmament, but what would that mean concerning the future of the party?”
Is Hezbollah closer today to accepting the idea of relinquishing its weapons?
That could happen, according to Jaber, the Lebanese military expert. But it would take time to agree with Hezbollah on a new defense strategy under which its fighters would join a paramilitary force within the Lebanese Army.
It would also depend on whether U.S. President Donald Trump would “adopt a policy of compromise with Iran … or push it into the corner with more sanctions,” Wood said.
In the meantime, Israel is not showing enough patience and is striking Hezbollah suspected targets almost every day.
Iran is losing much of its influence in Lebanon, with President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam refusing “outside interferences” and declaring that the tiny country is going “neutral” and will not be part of any regional alliances.
Hezbollah is adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding developments in the region.
“It is waiting for opportunities [for a comeback] and if no opportunities present themselves, Hezbollah is going to end up just as a political party,” Kahwaji said.